2019年9月10日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
香港民研今日發放特首及問責司局長民望數字
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「香港民研」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
香港民研於九月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,046名香港居民。調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為25.4分，民望淨值為負55個百分點，各民望數字與兩星期前比較變化不大。司長方面，對比一個月前，政務司司長張建宗的最新支持度評分明顯下跌8.1分至32.1分，民望淨值亦大幅下跌24個百分點至負23個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分亦明顯下跌4.8分至28.0，民望淨值為負35個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，最新支持度評分為17.7分，民望淨值為負59個百分點。而三位司長的評分同樣是其上任以來新低。局長方面，對比一個月前，十三位局長的支持率淨值全部下跌，當中除了環境局局長黃錦星和勞工及福利局局長羅致光之外，其他十一位局長的支持率淨值均跌至其上任以來新低。調查的實效回應比率為69.5%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-6%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.2。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 2-4/9/2019 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,046 (包括518個固網及528個手機號碼樣本) |
| 實效回應比率[2] | ： | 69.5% |
| 抽樣誤差[3] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-6%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.2 |
| 加權方法[4] | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一八年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2018年版）。 |
[1] 調查的固網及手機樣本比例於2018年4月更新為二比一，2019年7月再更新為一比一。
[2] 民研計劃在2017年9月前以「整體回應比率」彙報樣本資料，2017年9月開始則以「實效回應比率」彙報。2018年7月，民研計劃再調整實效回應比率的計算方法，因此改變前後的回應比率不能直接比較。
[3] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
[4] 過往，手機樣本會按照固網樣本中民情指數的基礎數據進行調整，再作統計，但由2018年7月起，民研計劃再微調加權方法，不再將固網樣本及手機樣本分開處理，手機樣本亦不再按照固網樣本中民情指數的基礎數據作調整，整體效果是手機樣本的重要性略為提升。
特首及問責官員民望
以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 17-20/6/19 | 2-8/7/19 | 17-19/7/19 | 1-6/8/19 | 15-20/8/19 | 2-4/9/19 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,015 | 1,025 | 1,002 | 1,015 | 1,023 | 1,046 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 58.7% | 67.4% | 59.8% | 62.8% | 68.5% | 69.5% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特首林鄭月娥評分 | 32.8[5] | 33.4 | 30.1[5] | 27.9 | 24.6[5] | 25.4+/-2.0 | +0.7 |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首支持率 | 23%[5] | 26% | 21%[5] | 20% | 17% | 19+/-2% | +2% |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首反對率 | 67%[5] | 66% | 70%[5] | 72% | 76%[5] | 75+/-3% | -2% |
| 支持率淨值 | -44%[5] | -40% | -49%[5] | -51% | -59%[5] | -55+/-5% | +4% |
[5] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是各問責司長的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 8-11/4/19 | 6-9/5/19 | 3-6/6/19 | 2-8/7/19 | 1-6/8/19 | 2-4/9/19 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 634-673 | 592-642 | 553-616 | 583-641 | 574-580 | 640-679 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 63.9% | 63.2% | 60.4% | 67.4% | 62.8% | 69.5% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 政務司司長張建宗評分 | 45.9 | 43.5 | 43.2 | 38.0[6] | 40.1 | 32.1+/-2.2 | -8.1[6] |
| 張建宗出任政務司司長支持率 | 25% | 23% | 29%[6] | 26% | 28% | 18+/-3% | -10%[6] |
| 張建宗出任政務司司長反對率 | 27% | 29% | 32% | 38%[6] | 27%[6] | 41+/-4% | +14%[6] |
| 支持率淨值 | -2% | -6% | -2% | -12%[6] | 1%[6] | -23+/-6% | -24%[6] |
| 財政司司長陳茂波評分 | 38.2 | 34.2[6] | 36.1 | 29.5[6] | 32.9[6] | 28.0+/-2.1 | -4.8[6] |
| 陳茂波出任財政司司長支持率 | 18% | 16% | 19% | 17% | 19% | 19+/-3% | -- |
| 陳茂波出任財政司司長反對率 | 53% | 51% | 47% | 57%[6] | 49%[6] | 55+/-4% | +5% |
| 支持率淨值 | -35% | -35% | -28% | -40%[6] | -30%[6] | -35+/-6% | -6% |
| 律政司司長鄭若驊評分 | 34.2 | 29.5[6] | 29.5 | 21.6[6] | 20.3 | 17.7+/-2.1 | -2.6 |
| 鄭若驊出任律政司司長支持率 | 17% | 11%[6] | 16%[6] | 10%[6] | 11% | 10+/-2% | -1% |
| 鄭若驊出任律政司司長反對率 | 46%[6] | 52%[6] | 56% | 68%[6] | 63% | 68+/-4% | +5% |
| 支持率淨值 | -30%[6] | -41%[6] | -40% | -58%[6] | -53% | -59+/-5% | -6% |
[6] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是各問責局長的最新民望數字，按支持率淨值倒序排列[7]：
| 調查日期 | 3-6/6/19 | 2-8/7/19 | 1-6/8/19 | 2-4/9/19 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 565-638 | 601-643 | 572-624 | 609-689 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 60.4% | 67.4% | 62.8% | 69.5% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 陳肇始出任食物及衛生局局長支持率 | 50% | 45% | 42% | 38+/-4% | -5% |
| 陳肇始出任食物及衛生局局長反對率 | 12% | 14% | 13% | 20+/-3% | +7%[8] |
| 支持率淨值 | 38% | 32% | 30% | 18+/-6% | -12%[8] |
| 邱騰華出任商務及經濟發展局局長支持率 | 39% | 42% | 40% | 33+/-4% | -7%[8] |
| 邱騰華出任商務及經濟發展局局長反對率 | 13% | 13% | 13% | 23+/-3% | +10%[8] |
| 支持率淨值 | 26% | 29% | 27% | 10+/-6% | -17%[8] |
| 黃錦星出任環境局局長支持率 | 38%[8] | 38% | 34% | 31+/-4% | -3% |
| 黃錦星出任環境局局長反對率 | 20% | 20% | 20% | 22+/-3% | +2% |
| 支持率淨值 | 18% | 18% | 14% | 10+/-6% | -5% |
| 劉怡翔出任財經事務及庫務局局長支持率 | 24% | 22% | 23% | 19+/-3% | -4% |
| 劉怡翔出任財經事務及庫務局局長反對率 | 10% | 14%[8] | 13% | 17+/-3% | +5%[8] |
| 支持率淨值 | 15% | 8%[8] | 11% | 2+/-5% | -9%[8] |
| 羅致光出任勞工及福利局局長支持率 | 38%[8] | 38% | 32%[8] | 30+/-4% | -2% |
| 羅致光出任勞工及福利局局長反對率 | 23%[8] | 21% | 26% | 28+/-4% | +2% |
| 支持率淨值 | 15%[8] | 17% | 6%[8] | 2+/-6% | -4% |
| 黃偉綸出任發展局局長支持率 | 26% | 23% | 26% | 20+/-3% | -5%[8] |
| 黃偉綸出任發展局局長反對率 | 14% | 18%[8] | 19% | 21+/-3% | +2% |
| 支持率淨值 | 13% | 5%[8] | 6% | -1+/-5% | -7% |
| 羅智光出任公務員事務局局長支持率 | 31% | 35% | 25%[8] | 21+/-3% | -4% |
| 羅智光出任公務員事務局局長反對率 | 19%[8] | 19% | 25%[8] | 31+/-4% | +6%[8] |
| 支持率淨值 | 12%[8] | 16% | 0%[8] | -10+/-6% | -10%[8] |
| 楊偉雄出任創新及科技局局長支持率 | 23% | 25% | 23% | 17+/-3% | -6%[8] |
| 楊偉雄出任創新及科技局局長反對率 | 24%[8] | 27% | 26% | 33+/-4% | +7%[8] |
| 支持率淨值 | -1% | -2% | -2% | -16+/-5% | -14%[8] |
| 聶德權出任政制及內地事務局局長支持率 | 20% | 19% | 21% | 17+/-3% | -4% |
| 聶德權出任政制及內地事務局局長反對率 | 22% | 30%[8] | 26% | 34+/-4% | +9%[8] |
| 支持率淨值 | -2% | -11%[8] | -5% | -17+/-6% | -12%[8] |
| 陳帆出任運輸及房屋局局長支持率 | 26% | 24% | 23% | 21+/-3% | -2% |
| 陳帆出任運輸及房屋局局長反對率 | 34%[8] | 38% | 35% | 43+/-4% | +9%[8] |
| 支持率淨值 | -8% | -14% | -11% | -22+/-6% | -11%[8] |
| 楊潤雄出任教育局局長支持率 | 24% | 20% | 20% | 19+/-3% | -1% |
| 楊潤雄出任教育局局長反對率 | 32%[8] | 46%[8] | 39%[8] | 51+/-4% | +11%[8] |
| 支持率淨值 | -7%[8] | -26%[8] | -19% | -32+/-6% | -13%[8] |
| 劉江華出任民政事務局局長支持率 | 22% | 21% | 18% | 15+/-3% | -2% |
| 劉江華出任民政事務局局長反對率 | 40% | 49%[8] | 49% | 57+/-4% | +8%[8] |
| 支持率淨值 | -18% | -28%[8] | -31% | -42+/-6% | -10%[8] |
| 李家超出任保安局局長支持率 | 27% | 21%[8] | 20% | 17+/-3% | -3% |
| 李家超出任保安局局長反對率 | 40%[8] | 59%[8] | 59% | 63+/-4% | +4% |
| 支持率淨值 | -13% | -38%[8] | -39% | -46+/-6% | -7% |
[7] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
[8] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為25.4分，其支持率為19%，反對率為75%，民望淨值為負55個百分點，各民望數字與兩星期前比較變化不大。
司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的最新支持度評分明顯下跌8.1分至32.1分，支持率為18%，反對率為41%，民望淨值亦大幅下跌24個百分點至負23個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分明顯下跌4.8分至28.0，支持率為19%，反對率為55%，民望淨值為負35個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，支持度評分為17.7分，支持率為10%，反對率為68%，民望淨值為負59個百分點。而張建宗、陳茂波及鄭若驊的評分同樣是其上任以來新低。以支持度評分及支持率淨值計，張建宗繼續是民望最高的司長。
局長方面，按支持率淨值排名首位的是食物及衛生局局長陳肇始，然後是商務及經濟發展局局長邱騰華、環境局局長黃錦星、財經事務及庫務局局長劉怡翔和勞工及福利局局長羅致光。而發展局局長黃偉綸、公務員事務局局長羅智光、創新及科技局局長楊偉雄、政制及內地事務局局長聶德權、運輸及房屋局局長陳帆、教育局局長楊潤雄、民政事務局局長劉江華和保安局局長李家超的民望則出現負值。
對比一個月前，十三位局長的支持率淨值全部下跌，當中商務及經濟發展局局長邱騰華、創新及科技局局長楊偉雄、教育局局長楊潤雄、政制及內地事務局局長聶德權、食物及衛生局局長陳肇始、運輸及房屋局局長陳帆、民政事務局局長劉江華、公務員事務局局長羅智光及財經事務和庫務局局長劉怡翔的支持率淨值變化超過抽樣誤差，分別比上月下跌17、14、13、12、12、11、10、10和9個百分點。除了環境局局長黃錦星和勞工及福利局局長羅致光之外，其他十一位局長的支持率淨值均為其上任以來新低。
根據香港民研的標準，沒有官員屬於「表現理想」或「表現成功」，陳肇始、邱騰華、黃錦星、羅致光、羅智光、陳帆、張建宗及聶德權屬於「表現一般」，黃偉綸、劉怡翔、楊偉雄屬於「表現不彰」，李家超、劉江華、陳茂波及楊潤雄屬於「表現失敗」，林鄭月娥及鄭若驊屬於「表現拙劣」。
以下是特首林鄭月娥及各問責官員民望級別總表：
| 「表現理想」：支持率超過66%者，以支持率排名[9]，即括弧內數字 |
| 「表現成功」：支持率超過50%者，以支持率排名[9]，即括弧內數字 |
| 「表現一般」：非其他五類者，以支持率排名[9]，即括弧內數字 |
| 食物及衛生局局長陳肇始（38%）；商務及經濟發展局局長邱騰華（33%）；環境局局長黃錦星（31%）；勞工及福利局局長羅致光（30%）；公務員事務局局長羅智光（21%）；運輸及房屋局局長陳帆（21%）；政務司司長張建宗（18%）；政制及內地事務局局長聶德權（17%） |
| 「表現不彰」：認知率不足50%者，以支持率排名[9]，括弧內第一數字為支持率，第二數字為認知率 |
| 發展局局長黃偉綸（20%，41%）；財經事務及庫務局局長劉怡翔（19%，36%）；創新及科技局局長楊偉雄（17%，50%） |
| 「表現失敗」：反對率超過50%者，以反對率排名[9]，即括弧內數字 |
| 保安局局長李家超（63%）；民政事務局局長劉江華（57%）；財政司司長陳茂波（55%）；教育局局長楊潤雄（51%） |
| 「表現拙劣」：反對率超過66%者，以反對率排名[9]，即括弧內數字 |
| 特首林鄭月娥（75%）；律政司司長鄭若驊（68%） |
[9] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
民意日誌
香港民研於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照香港民研設計的分析方法，將每日大事紀錄傳送至香港民研，經香港民研核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的調查項目，上次調查日期最早為1-6/8/2019，而今次調查日期則為2-4/9/2019，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字，又或參閱「民意日誌」內所有大事紀錄後，再作判斷：
| 4/9/19 | 林鄭月娥宣佈正式撤回修訂《逃犯條例》草案 |
| 3/9/19 | 港澳辦就反修例運動召開記者會 |
| 2/9/19 | 中學及大學學生於開學日罷課 |
| 1/9/19 | 反修例示威者到香港國際機場附近集會 |
| 31/8/19 | 反修例示威者於警察總部附近投擲汽油彈，演變成警民衝突 |
| 30/8/19 | 多名民主派議員及香港眾志成員被捕 |
| 27/8/19 | 林鄭月娥指政府有責任檢視所有法律以「止暴制亂」 |
| 25/8/19 | 荃灣反修例遊行演變成警民衝突，有警員向天開槍示警 |
| 20/8/19 | 林鄭月娥表示政府會構建對話平台，與香港市民溝通 |
| 18/8/19 | 民間人權陣線指約170萬人參與反修例集會 |
| 15/8/19 | 政府公佈一系列紓困措施，預計開支合共約191億元 |
| 9/8/19 | 林鄭月娥指示威活動會影響香港經濟 |
| 5/8/19 | 全港多區舉行罷工集會並發生警民衝突 |
數據分析
九月初進行的調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為25.4分，民望淨值為負55個百分點，各民望數字與兩星期前比較變化不大。
司長方面，對比一個月前，政務司司長張建宗的最新支持度評分明顯下跌8.1分至32.1分，民望淨值亦大幅下跌24個百分點至負23個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分亦明顯下跌4.8分至28.0，民望淨值為負35個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，最新支持度評分為17.7分，民望淨值為負59個百分點。而三位司長的評分同樣是其上任以來新低。
局長方面，對比一個月前，十三位局長的支持率淨值全部下跌，當中除了環境局局長黃錦星和勞工及福利局局長羅致光之外，其他十一位局長的支持率淨值均跌至其上任以來新低。
Sep 10, 2019
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
HKPOP today releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “HKPOP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
HKPOP successfully interviewed 1,046 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early September. Results show that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 25.4 marks. Her net popularity is negative 55 percentage points. Her popularity figures have not changed much over the past two weeks. As for the Secretaries of Departments, as compared to one month ago, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung has dropped significantly by 8.1 marks to 32.1. His net popularity stands at negative 23 percentage point, which goes down significantly by 24 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan has also dropped significantly by 4.8 marks to 28.0. His net popularity stands at negative 35 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her latest support rating is 17.7 marks and her net popularity stands at negative 59 percentage points. The ratings of all three Secretaries of Departments have registered their new record lows since they took office. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of all 13 Directors have gone down. Except for those of Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, the net approval rates of all other 11 Directors of Bureaux are at their record lows since they took office. The effective response rate of the survey is 69.5%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-6% and that of ratings is +/-2.2 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 2-4/9/2019 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,046 (including 518 landline and 528 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate[2] | : | 69.5% |
| Sampling error[3] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-6% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.2 at 95% confidence level |
| Weighting method[4] | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. |
[1] The landline and mobile sample ratio was revised to 2 to 1 in April 2018 and further revised to 1 to 1 in July 2019.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level, meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
[4] In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, POP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased.
Popularity of CE and Principal Officials
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 17-20/6/19 | 2-8/7/19 | 17-19/7/19 | 1-6/8/19 | 15-20/8/19 | 2-4/9/19 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,015 | 1,025 | 1,002 | 1,015 | 1,023 | 1,046 | -- |
| Response rate | 58.7% | 67.4% | 59.8% | 62.8% | 68.5% | 69.5% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 32.8[5] | 33.4 | 30.1[5] | 27.9 | 24.6[5] | 25.4+/-2.0 | +0.7 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 23%[5] | 26% | 21%[5] | 20% | 17% | 19+/-2% | +2% |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 67%[5] | 66% | 70%[5] | 72% | 76%[5] | 75+/-3% | -2% |
| Net approval rate | -44%[5] | -40% | -49%[5] | -51% | -59%[5] | -55+/-5% | +4% |
[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 8-11/4/19 | 6-9/5/19 | 3-6/6/19 | 2-8/7/19 | 1-6/8/19 | 2-4/9/19 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 634-673 | 592-642 | 553-616 | 583-641 | 574-580 | 640-679 | -- |
| Response rate | 63.9% | 63.2% | 60.4% | 67.4% | 62.8% | 69.5% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CS Matthew Cheung | 45.9 | 43.5 | 43.2 | 38.0[6] | 40.1 | 32.1+/-2.2 | -8.1[6] |
| Vote of confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
25% | 23% | 29%[6] | 26% | 28% | 18+/-3% | -10%[6] |
| Vote of no confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
27% | 29% | 32% | 38%[6] | 27%[6] | 41+/-4% | +14%[6] |
| Net approval rate | -2% | -6% | -2% | -12%[6] | 1%[6] | -23+/-6% | -24%[6] |
| Rating of FS Paul Chan | 38.2 | 34.2[6] | 36.1 | 29.5[6] | 32.9[6] | 28.0+/-2.1 | -4.8[6] |
| Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan | 18% | 16% | 19% | 17% | 19% | 19+/-3% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan | 53% | 51% | 47% | 57%[6] | 49%[6] | 55+/-4% | +5% |
| Net approval rate | -35% | -35% | -28% | -40%[6] | -30%[6] | -35+/-6% | -6% |
| Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng | 34.2 | 29.5[6] | 29.5 | 21.6[6] | 20.3 | 17.7+/-2.1 | -2.6 |
| Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 17% | 11%[6] | 16%[6] | 10%[6] | 11% | 10+/-2% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 46%[6] | 52%[6] | 56% | 68%[6] | 63% | 68+/-4% | +5% |
| Net approval rate | -30%[6] | -41%[6] | -40% | -58%[6] | -53% | -59+/-5% | -6% |
[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates[7]:
| Date of survey | 3-6/6/19 | 2-8/7/19 | 1-6/8/19 | 2-4/9/19 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 565-638 | 601-643 | 572-624 | 609-689 | -- |
| Response rate | 60.4% | 67.4% | 62.8% | 69.5% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan | 50% | 45% | 42% | 38+/-4% | -5% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan | 12% | 14% | 13% | 20+/-3% | +7%[8] |
| Net approval rate | 38% | 32% | 30% | 18+/-6% | -12%[8] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau | 39% | 42% | 40% | 33+/-4% | -7%[8] |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau | 13% | 13% | 13% | 23+/-3% | +10%[8] |
| Net approval rate | 26% | 29% | 27% | 10+/-6% | -17%[8] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing | 38%[8] | 38% | 34% | 31+/-4% | -3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing | 20% | 20% | 20% | 22+/-3% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | 18% | 18% | 14% | 10+/-6% | -5% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau | 24% | 22% | 23% | 19+/-3% | -4% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau | 10% | 14%[8] | 13% | 17+/-3% | +5%[8] |
| Net approval rate | 15% | 8%[8] | 11% | 2+/-5% | -9%[8] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong | 38%[8] | 38% | 32%[8] | 30+/-4% | -2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong | 23%[8] | 21% | 26% | 28+/-4% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | 15%[8] | 17% | 6%[8] | 2+/-6% | -4% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong | 26% | 23% | 26% | 20+/-3% | -5%[8] |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong | 14% | 18%[8] | 19% | 21+/-3% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | 13% | 5%[8] | 6% | -1+/-5% | -7% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law | 31% | 35% | 25%[8] | 21+/-3% | -4% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law | 19%[8] | 19% | 25%[8] | 31+/-4% | +6%[8] |
| Net approval rate | 12%[8] | 16% | 0%[8] | -10+/-6% | -10%[8] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang | 23% | 25% | 23% | 17+/-3% | -6%[8] |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang | 24%[8] | 27% | 26% | 33+/-4% | +7%[8] |
| Net approval rate | -1% | -2% | -2% | -16+/-5% | -14%[8] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip | 20% | 19% | 21% | 17+/-3% | -4% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip | 22% | 30%[8] | 26% | 34+/-4% | +9%[8] |
| Net approval rate | -2% | -11%[8] | -5% | -17+/-6% | -12%[8] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan | 26% | 24% | 23% | 21+/-3% | -2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan | 34%[8] | 38% | 35% | 43+/-4% | +9%[8] |
| Net approval rate | -8% | -14% | -11% | -22+/-6% | -11%[8] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung | 24% | 20% | 20% | 19+/-3% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung | 32%[8] | 46%[8] | 39%[8] | 51+/-4% | +11%[8] |
| Net approval rate | -7%[8] | -26%[8] | -19% | -32+/-6% | -13%[8] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah | 22% | 21% | 18% | 15+/-3% | -2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah | 40% | 49%[8] | 49% | 57+/-4% | +8%[8] |
| Net approval rate | -18% | -28%[8] | -31% | -42+/-6% | -10%[8] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee | 27% | 21%[8] | 20% | 17+/-3% | -3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee | 40%[8] | 59%[8] | 59% | 63+/-4% | +4% |
| Net approval rate | -13% | -38%[8] | -39% | -46+/-6% | -7% |
[7] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[8] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 25.4 marks. Her approval rate is 19%, disapproval rate 75%, giving a net popularity of negative 55 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from two weeks ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung has dropped significantly by 8.1 marks to 32.1, his approval rate at 18%, disapproval rate 41%, giving a net popularity of negative 23 percentage point, which goes down significantly by 24 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan has dropped significantly by 4.8 marks to 28.0, his approval rate at 19%, disapproval rate 55%, thus a net popularity of negative 35 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 17.7 marks, approval rate 10%, disapproval rate 68%, giving a net popularity of negative 59 percentage points. The ratings of Matthew Cheung, Paul Chan and Teresa Cheng have all registered a new record low since they took office. In terms of popularity rating and net approval rate, Matthew Cheung continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results reveal that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, followed by Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong. Meanwhile, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah and Secretary for Security John Lee register negative popularities.
Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of all 13 Directors have gone down. Those of Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah, Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau have changed beyond sampling errors, dropped by 17, 14, 13, 12, 12, 11, 10, 10 and 9 percentage points respectively. Except for those of Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, the net approval rates of all other 11 Directors of Bureaux are at their record lows since they took office.
According to HKPOP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Sophia Chan, Edward Yau, Wong Kam-sing, Law Chi-kwong, Joshua Law, Frank Chan, Matthew Cheung and Patrick Nip can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Michael Wong, James Lau and Nicholas Yang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. John Lee, Lau Kong-wah, Paul Chan and Kevin Yeung fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while Carrie Lam and Teresa Cheng fall into that of “disastrous”.
The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials:
| “Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[9] |
| “Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[9] |
| “Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[9] |
| Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee (38%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau Tang-wah (33%); Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (31%); Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (30%); Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law Chi-kong (21%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan Fan (21%); CS Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (18%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip Tak-kuen (17%) |
| “Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates[9]; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate |
| Secretary for Development Michael Wong Wai-lun (20%, 41%); Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Henry Lau Jr (19%, 36%); Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang Wei-hsiung (17%, 50%) |
| “Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[9] |
| Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-chiu (63%); Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah (57%); FS Paul Chan Mo-po (55%); Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung Yun-hung (51%) |
| “Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[9] |
| CE Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (75%); SJ Teresa Cheng Yeuk-wah (68%); |
[9] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, HKPOP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to HKPOP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by HKPOP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by HKPOP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the earliest previous survey was conducted from 1 to 6 August, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 2 to 4 September, 2019. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 4/9/19 | Carrie Lam announces the formal withdrawal of the extradition bill. |
| 3/9/19 | The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office holds a press conference regarding the anti-extradition bill movement. |
| 2/9/19 | Secondary and tertiary students boycott class on first day of school. |
| 1/9/19 | Anti-extradition bill protesters hold a demonstration near Hong Kong International Airport. |
| 31/8/19 | Anti-extradition bill protesters throw petrol bombs near police headquarters, it turns into a conflict between protestors and the police. |
| 30/8/19 | Several pro-democracy Legislative Councilors and Demosistō members are arrested. |
| 27/8/19 | Carrie Lam says government is responsible for looking all laws in Hong Kong to stop chaos. |
| 25/8/19 | Protest against extradition bill in Tsuen Wan turns into a conflict between protestors and the police, a police officer fires a warning shot into the air. |
| 20/8/19 | Carrie Lam announces the government would set up a platform for dialogue with Hong Kong citizens. |
| 18/8/19 | The Civil Human Rights Front announces that around 1.7 million people participated in the rally against the extradition bill. |
| 15/8/19 | The government announces a series of relief measures, which will cost $19.1 billion. |
| 9/8/19 | Carrie Lam says protests would affect Hong Kong’s economy. |
| 5/8/19 | Rallies in multiple districts in Hong Kong are held during strike resulting in conflicts between protestors and the police. |
Data Analysis
The survey conducted in early September shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 25.4 marks. Her net popularity is negative 55 percentage points. Her popularity figures have not changed much over the past two weeks.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, as compared to one month ago, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung has dropped significantly by 8.1 marks to 32.1. His net popularity stands at negative 23 percentage point, which goes down significantly by 24 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan has also dropped significantly by 4.8 marks to 28.0. His net popularity stands at negative 35 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her latest support rating is 17.7 marks and her net popularity stands at negative 59 percentage points. The ratings of all three Secretaries of Departments have registered their new record lows since they took office.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of all 13 Directors have gone down. Except for those of Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, the net approval rates of all other 11 Directors of Bureaux are at their record lows since they took office.
