2019年11月5日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
民研計劃發放市民對政府政策範疇評價
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於十月下旬由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了519名香港居民。結果顯示，特區政府五項具體政策範疇的最新滿意率淨值全部錄得負值，當中滿意率淨值最高的是政府處理與中央政府關係的表現，為負43個百分點，然後是在維護人權自由、維持經濟繁榮、推行民主步伐和改善民生方面的表現，滿意率淨值分別為負45、負54、負55及負57個百分點。對比2018年12月，全部政策範疇的滿意率淨值都大幅下跌，當中維持經濟繁榮表現的滿意率淨值創2003年7月以來新低，其餘四項政策範疇的滿意率淨值更創1997年有紀錄以來新低。調查的實效回應比率為68.3%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-0.1。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 24-28/10/2019 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目 | ： | 519 (包括259個固網及260個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率[1] | ： | 68.3% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-0.1 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一八年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2018年版）。 |
[1] 民研計劃在2017年9月前以「整體回應比率」彙報樣本資料，2017年9月開始則以「實效回應比率」彙報。2018年7月，民研計劃再調整實效回應比率的計算方法，因此改變前後的回應比率不能直接比較。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
以下是市民對特區政府五項具體政策範疇的最新滿意程度，按滿意率淨值倒序排列：
| 調查日期 | 19-22/6/17 | 18-19/12/17 | 14-21/6/18 | 17-20/12/18 | 24-28/10/19 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 542-634 | 569-652 | 588-666 | 512-540 | 519 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 71.2% | 64.9% | 59.6% | 60.6% | 68.3% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 處理與中央政府關係：滿意率[3] | 37%[4] | 52%[4] | 52% | 56% | 17+/-3% | -40%[4] |
| 處理與中央政府關係：不滿率[3] | 36% | 26%[4] | 33%[4] | 26%[4] | 60+/-4% | +34%[4] |
| 滿意率淨值 | 1% | 26%[4] | 19% | 31%[4] | -43+/-7% | -74%[4] |
| 平均量值[3] | 2.9 | 3.3[4] | 3.2 | 3.4[4] | 2.1+/-0.1 | -1.3[4] |
| 維護人權自由表現：滿意率[3] | 36% | 36% | 36% | 35% | 22+/-4% | -13%[4] |
| 維護人權自由表現：不滿率[3] | 43%[4] | 44% | 49%[4] | 46% | 67+/-4% | +22%[4] |
| 滿意率淨值 | -7%[4] | -8% | -13% | -11% | -45+/-7% | -35%[4] |
| 平均量值[3] | 2.8[4] | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.0+/-0.1 | -0.6[4] |
| 維持經濟繁榮表現：滿意率[3] | 38% | 44%[4] | 46% | 48% | 14+/-3% | -35%[4] |
| 維持經濟繁榮表現：不滿率[3] | 35% | 26%[4] | 35%[4] | 31% | 68+/-4% | +37%[4] |
| 滿意率淨值 | 2% | 18%[4] | 10%[4] | 17% | -54+/-6% | -71%[4] |
| 平均量值[3] | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.0+/-0.1 | -1.2[4] |
| 推行民主步伐：滿意率[3] | 25% | 30%[4] | 29% | 34% | 15+/-3% | -19%[4] |
| 推行民主步伐：不滿率[3] | 52%[4] | 49% | 55%[4] | 50% | 70+/-4% | +20%[4] |
| 滿意率淨值 | -27% | -18%[4] | -26%[4] | -16% | -55+/-7% | -39%[4] |
| 平均量值[3] | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.4[4] | 2.6 | 1.9+/-0.1 | -0.7[4] |
| 改善民生表現：滿意率[3] | 26%[4] | 39%[4] | 34%[4] | 33% | 15+/-3% | -18%[4] |
| 改善民生表現：不滿率[3] | 49% | 38%[4] | 47%[4] | 46% | 72+/-4% | +26%[4] |
| 滿意率淨值 | -22% | 1%[4] | -13%[4] | -13% | -57+/-6% | -44%[4] |
| 平均量值[3] | 2.6 | 2.9[4] | 2.7[4] | 2.7 | 1.9+/-0.1 | -0.8[4] |
[3] 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[4] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
特區政府五項具體政策範疇的最新滿意率淨值全部錄得負值，當中滿意率淨值相最高的是政府處理與中央政府關係的表現，為負43個百分點，然後是在維護人權自由、維持經濟繁榮、推行民主步伐和改善民生方面的表現，滿意率淨值分別為負45、負54、負55及負57個百分點。五項具體政策範疇的平均量值介乎1.9至2.1分，即整體上接近「幾不滿」。對比2018年12月，全部政策範疇的滿意率淨值都大幅下跌，當中維持經濟繁榮表現的滿意率淨值創2003年7月以來新低，其餘四項政策範疇的滿意率淨值更創1997年有紀錄以來新低。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的調查項目，上次調查日期為17-20/12/2018，而今次調查日期則為24-28/10/2019，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 28/10/19 | 記者於警方記者會抗議警察對記者使用暴力 |
| 25/10/19 | 高等法院頒發臨時禁制令禁止非法發布警員及其家屬的個人資料 |
| 23/10/19 | 陳同佳刑滿出獄 |
| 20/10/19 | 九龍區出現示威及警民衝突 |
| 16/10/19 | 林鄭月娥發表2019年施政報告 |
| 13/10/19 | 全港多區出現示威及警民衝突 |
| 10/10/19 | 張建宗表示警方自反修列運動至今拘捕二千多人 |
| 6/10/19 | 反《蒙面法》遊行演變成多區警民衝突 |
| 5/10/19 | 反《蒙面法》遊行演變成多區警民衝突 |
| 4/10/19 | 政府正式引用《緊急法》訂立《禁蒙面法》 |
| 1/10/19 | 全港多區出現示威及警民衝突，警方在荃灣使用實彈射傷一名示威者 |
| 29/9/19 | 反極權大遊行演變成多區警民衝突 |
| 28/9/19 | 民間人權陣線於添馬公園舉行集會，紀念雨傘運動五周年 |
| 26/9/19 | 林鄭月娥出席首場社區對話 |
| 22/9/19 | 沙田及全港多區出現示威及警民衝突 |
| 21/9/19 | 屯門及元朗出現示威及警民衝突 |
| 15/9/19 | 港島遊行演變成警民衝突 |
| 14/9/19 | 手持國旗者與反修例者發生衝突 |
| 8/9/19 | 支持通過《香港人權及民主法案》的集會演變成警民衝突 |
| 7/9/19 | 反修例示威者發起堵塞機場及周邊道路 |
| 4/9/19 | 林鄭月娥宣佈正式撤回修訂《逃犯條例》草案 |
| 3/9/19 | 港澳辦就反修例運動召開記者會 |
| 1/9/19 | 反修例示威者到香港國際機場附近集會 |
| 31/8/19 | 全港多區出現示威及警民衝突 |
| 25/8/19 | 荃灣反修例遊行演變成警民衝突，有警員向天開槍示警 |
| 24/8/19 | 觀塘反修例遊行演變成警民衝突 |
| 24/8/19 | 港鐵因應反修例遊行暫停部分列車服務 |
| 18/8/19 | 民間人權陣線指約170萬人參與反修例集會 |
| 15/8/19 | 政府公佈一系列紓困措施，預計開支合共約191億元 |
數據分析
特區政府五項具體政策範疇的最新滿意率淨值全部錄得負值，當中滿意率淨值最高的是政府處理與中央政府關係的表現，為負43個百分點，然後是在維護人權自由、維持經濟繁榮、推行民主步伐和改善民生方面的表現，滿意率淨值分別為負45、負54、負55及負57個百分點。對比2018年12月，全部政策範疇的滿意率淨值都大幅下跌，當中維持經濟繁榮表現的滿意率淨值創2003年7月以來新低，其餘四項政策範疇的滿意率淨值更創1997年有紀錄以來新低。
Nov 5, 2019
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
POP releases people’s appraisal of policy areas of the government
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 519 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in the second half of October. Results show that the latest net satisfaction rates of all five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are negative. Among them, the government’s performance in handling its relation with the Central Government has attained the highest net satisfaction rate, at negative 43 percentage points. The government’s performance in protecting human rights and freedom, maintaining economic prosperity, its pace of democratic development and its performance in improving people’s livelihood followed, attaining net satisfaction rates of negative 45, negative 54, negative 55 and negative 57 percentage points respectively. Compared with the figures in December 2018, the net satisfaction rates of all policy areas have dropped dramatically. Among them, the net satisfaction rate of the performance in maintaining economic prosperity has registered record low since July 2003, while the net satisfaction rates of the other four policy areas even registered historical lows since records began in 1997. The effective response rate of the survey is 68.3%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-0.1 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 24-28/10/2019 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size | : | 519 (including 259 landline and 260 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate[1] | : | 68.3% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-0.1 at 95% confidence level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. |
[1] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Recent figures on people’s appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows, in descending order of net satisfaction rates:
|
Date of survey |
19-22/6/17 | 18-19/12/17 | 14-21/6/18 | 17-20/12/18 | 24-28/10/19 | Latest change |
|
Sample size |
542-634 | 569-652 | 588-666 | 512-540 | 519 | -- |
|
Response rate |
71.2% | 64.9% | 59.6% | 60.6% | 68.3% | -- |
|
Latest findings |
Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate [3] | 37%[4] | 52%[4] | 52% | 56% | 17+/-3% | -40%[4] |
| Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate[3] |
36% | 26%[4] | 33%[4] | 26%[4] | 60+/-4% | +34%[4] |
| Net satisfaction rate | 1% | 26%[4] | 19% | 31%[4] | -43+/-7% | -74%[4] |
| Mean value[3] | 2.9 | 3.3[4] | 3.2 | 3.4[4] | 2.1+/-0.1 | -1.3[4] |
| Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate [3] | 36% | 36% | 36% | 35% | 22+/-4% | -13%[4] |
| Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate[3] |
43%[4] | 44% | 49%[4] | 46% | 67+/-4% | +22%[4] |
| Net satisfaction rate | -7%[4] | -8% | -13% | -11% | -45+/-7% | -35%[4] |
| Mean value[3] | 2.8[4] | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.0+/-0.1 | -0.6[4] |
| Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate [3] | 38% | 44%[4] | 46% | 48% | 14+/-3% | -35%[4] |
| Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate [3] | 35% | 26%[4] | 35%[4] | 31% | 68+/-4% | +37%[4] |
| Net satisfaction rate | 2% | 18%[4] | 10%[4] | 17% | -54+/-6% | -71%[4] |
| Mean value[3] | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.0+/-0.1 | -1.2[4] |
| Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate [3] | 25% | 30%[4] | 29% | 34% | 15+/-3% | -19%[4] |
| Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate [3] | 52%[4] | 49% | 55%[4] | 50% | 70+/-4% | +20%[4] |
| Net satisfaction rate | -27% | -18%[4] | -26%[4] | -16% | -55+/-7% | -39%[4] |
| Mean value[3] | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.4[4] | 2.6 | 1.9+/-0.1 | -0.7[4] |
| Improving people’s livelihood: Satisfaction rate [3] | 26%[4] | 39%[4] | 34%[4] | 33% | 15+/-3% | -18%[4] |
| Improving people’s livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate [3] | 49% | 38%[4] | 47%[4] | 46% | 72+/-4% | +26%[4] |
| Net satisfaction rate | -22% | 1%[4] | -13%[4] | -13% | -57+/-6% | -44%[4] |
| Mean value[3] | 2.6 | 2.9[4] | 2.7[4] | 2.7 | 1.9+/-0.1 | -0.8[4] |
[3] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
The latest net satisfaction rates of all five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are negative. Among them, the government’s performance in handling its relation with the Central Government has attained the highest net satisfaction rate, at negative 43 percentage points. The government’s performance in protecting human rights and freedom, maintaining economic prosperity, its pace of democratic development and its performance in improving people’s livelihood followed, attaining net satisfaction rates of negative 45, negative 54, negative 55 and negative 57 percentage points respectively. The mean values of these five specific policy areas range from 1.9 to 2.1, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general. Compared with the figures in December 2018, the net satisfaction rates of all policy areas have dropped dramatically. Among them, the net satisfaction rate of the performance in maintaining economic prosperity has registered record low since July 2003, while the net satisfaction rates of the other four policy areas even registered historical lows since records began in 1997.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by
POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 17 to 20 December, 2018 while this survey was conducted from 24 to 28 October, 2019. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures:
| 28/10/19 | Journalists protest against police violence targeting journalists during police press conference. |
| 25/10/19 | The High Court grants an interim injunction to restrain unlawful publishing of the personal data of police officers and their family members. |
| 23/10/19 | Chan Tong-kai is released from prison. |
| 20/10/19 | Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in Kowloon district. |
| 16/10/19 | Carrie Lam delivers the 2019 Policy Address. |
| 13/10/19 | Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in multiple districts in Hong Kong. |
| 10/10/19 | Matthew Cheung announces police has arrested more than 2,000 people since the anti-extradition bill movement began. |
| 6/10/19 | Anti-mask law rally turns into conflicts between protestors and the police in multiple districts in Hong Kong. |
| 5/10/19 | Anti-mask law rally turns into conflicts between protestors and the police in multiple districts in Hong Kong. |
| 4/10/19 | The government officially enacts anti-mask law by invoking emergency law. |
| 1/10/19 | Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in multiple districts in Hong Kong, the police shoots a protester with a live bullet in Tsuen Wan. |
| 29/9/19 | Anti-totalitarianism rally turns into conflicts between protestors and the police in multiple districts in Hong Kong. |
| 28/9/19 | The Civil Human Rights Front organizes a rally at Tamar Park to commemorate 5th anniversary of Umbrella Movement. |
| 26/9/19 | Carrie Lam attends the first Community Dialogue session. |
| 22/9/19 | Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in Shatin and multiple districts in Hong Kong. |
| 21/9/19 | Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in Tuen Mun and Yuen Long. |
| 15/9/19 | Protest on Hong Kong Island turns into conflicts between protestors and the police. |
| 14/9/19 | Conflicts occur between people with the national flag and those against the extradition bill. |
| 8/9/19 | Rally in support of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act turns into conflicts between protestors and the police. |
| 7/9/19 | Anti-extradition bill protesters call for blocking the airport and nearby roads. |
| 4/9/19 | Carrie Lam announces the formal withdrawal of the extradition bill. |
| 3/9/19 | The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office holds a press conference regarding the anti-extradition bill movement. |
| 1/9/19 | Anti-extradition bill protesters hold a demonstration near Hong Kong International Airport. |
| 31/8/19 | Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in multiple districts in Hong Kong. |
| 25/8/19 | Protest against extradition bill in Tsuen Wan turns into a conflict between protestors and the police, a police officer fires a warning shot into the air. |
| 24/8/19 | Protest against extradition bill in Kwun Tong turns into a conflict between protestors and the police. |
| 24/8/19 | MTR partially suspends train service due to protest against extradition bill. |
| 18/8/19 | The Civil Human Rights Front announces that around 1.7 million people participated in the rally against the extradition bill. |
| 15/8/19 | The government announces a series of relief measures, which will cost $19.1 billion. |
Data Analysis
The latest net satisfaction rates of all five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are negative. Among them, the government’s performance in handling its relation with the Central Government has attained the highest net satisfaction rate, at negative 43 percentage points. The government’s performance in protecting human rights and freedom, maintaining economic prosperity, its pace of democratic development and its performance in improving people’s livelihood followed, attaining net satisfaction rates of negative 45, negative 54, negative 55 and negative 57 percentage points respectively. Compared with the figures in December 2018, the net satisfaction rates of all policy areas have dropped dramatically. Among them, the net satisfaction rate of the performance in maintaining economic prosperity has registered record low since July 2003, while the net satisfaction rates of the other four policy areas even registered historical lows since records began in 1997.
