Dec 10, 2019
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials

Special Announcements

1. The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
2. POP’s usual practice is to issue releases before the middle and also the end of each year, under the names of “HKSAR anniversary” and “Year-end” survey series for public consumption. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures. The popularity figures of principal officials released today belong to the last of this survey series in 2019 while the last series of the popularity of Chief Executive in 2019 will be released on December 20.

3. Tentative release dates of remaining survey topics in 2019 are as follows:

•  December 17 (Tuesday)         Ethnic identity
•  December 20 (Friday)            Popularity of CE and SAR Government
•  December 23 (Monday)         Society’s current conditions and Public Sentiment Index
•  December 30 (Monday)         Year-end review

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,014 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in late November to early December. Latest results show that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 19.7 marks. Her net popularity is negative 72 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from two weeks ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 25.6 marks and his net popularity is negative 40 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 24.8 marks and his net popularity is negative 40 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 14.5 marks and her net popularity is negative 66 percentage points. The rating and net popularity of Matthew Cheung as well as the rating of Paul Chan have registered historical lows since they took office. As for the Directors of Bureaux, all of them register negative net approval rates. Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 8 among 13 Directors have gone up and 5 have gone down. Those of John Lee, Patrick Nip and Sophia Chan have changed beyond sampling errors, up by 13, up by 11 and down by 11 percentage points respectively. The net approval rates of Wong Kam-sing, Law Chi-kwong, Sophia Chan and Joshua Law have registered historical lows since they took office. The effective response rate of the survey is 63.2%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-6% and that of ratings is +/-2.1 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

[1]    Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[2]    All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

[3]    The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

[4]    The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates^[5]:

[5]    If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[6]    The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

The latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 19.7 marks. Her approval rate is 10%, disapproval rate 82%, giving a net popularity of negative 72 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from two weeks ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 25.6 marks, approval rate 13%, disapproval rate 54%, giving a net popularity of negative 40 percentage points, registering a significant drop of 11 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 24.8 marks, approval rate 16%, disapproval rate 57%, thus a net popularity of negative 40 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 14.5 marks, approval rate 9%, disapproval rate 75%, giving a net popularity of negative 66 percentage points. The rating and net popularity of Matthew Cheung as well as the rating of Paul Chan have registered historical lows since they took office.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, all of them register negative net approval rates. The top position goes to Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, followed by Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung and Secretary for Security John Lee.

Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 8 among 13 Directors have gone up and 5 have gone down. Those of John Lee, Patrick Nip and Sophia Chan have changed beyond sampling errors, up by 13, up by 11 and down by 11 percentage points respectively. The net approval rates of Wong Kam-sing, Law Chi-kwong, Sophia Chan and Joshua Law have registered historical lows since they took office.

According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Edward Yau, Wong Kam-sing, Sophia Chan, Law Chi-kwong, Joshua Law and Patrick Nip can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of James Lau, Michael Wong and Nicholas Yang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. John Lee, Kevin Yeung, Lau Kong-wah, Paul Chan, Matthew Cheung and Frank Chan fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while Carrie Lam and Teresa Cheng fall into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials:

[7]    If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 29 to 31 October, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 28 November to 3 December, 2019. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Data Analysis

The latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 19.7 marks. Her net popularity is negative 72 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from two weeks ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 25.6 marks and his net popularity is negative 40 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 24.8 marks and his net popularity is negative 40 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 14.5 marks and her net popularity is negative 66 percentage points. The rating and net popularity of Matthew Cheung as well as the rating of Paul Chan have registered historical lows since they took office.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, all of them register negative net approval rates. Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 8 among 13 Directors have gone up and 5 have gone down. Those of John Lee, Patrick Nip and Sophia Chan have changed beyond sampling errors, up by 13, up by 11 and down by 11 percentage points respectively. The net approval rates of Wong Kam-sing, Law Chi-kwong, Sophia Chan and Joshua Law have registered historical lows since they took office.