2019年12月20日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
民研計劃發放特首及特區政府民望
特別宣佈
- 香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
- 民研計劃在每年的年中及年底前，會分別發放《特區成立週年》和《年終回顧前瞻》調查系列，供大眾參考。由於香港回歸是在7月1日舉行，因此，以半年為總結的民調數字來審視香港社會的宏觀發展，可能會比以一年為總結的數字更加合適和準確。今日發放的特首及特區政府民望系列是本年度的最後一次。
- 2019年尚餘發放的調查項目，有關公布日期暫定如下：
- 12月23日 (星期一) 社會現況評價及民情指數
- 12月30日 (星期一) 年終回顧
- 民研計劃在二十八年前開展澳門研究，包括定期調查及選舉研究，希望逐步建立一套地區性的科學民意調查機制、為日後的比較研究提供數據。二十八年過後，我們希望交由公民社會決定是否繼續進行澳門調查。我們現以眾籌方式，以24萬元為目標，讓市民大眾尤其是澳門居民，決定是否繼續進行調查。達標的話，我們會迅速進行新的一輪調查，包括澳門特首及特區政府的民望、澳門市民的身分認同感、對特區及中央政府的信任程度、對前途以及一國兩制信心等。籌款不達標的話，我們會將款項撥入民研計劃的其他調查系列。有關以往澳門研究及最新眾籌計劃的詳情，請參閱以下網址：https://wp.pori.hk/macau-annual-survey-index。
公報簡要
民研計劃於十二月中由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,046名香港居民。結果顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為19.6分，民望淨值為負68個百分點，兩者與兩星期前分別不大。特區政府的最新滿意率淨值為負62個百分點，信任淨值為負39個百分點，與11月中的數字變化不大。調查的實效回應比率為61.6%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-1.8。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 13-18/12/2019 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,046 (包括535個固網及511個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率[2] | ： | 61.6% |
| 抽樣誤差[3] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-1.8 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一八年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2018年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 民研計劃在2017年9月前以「整體回應比率」彙報樣本資料，2017年9月開始則以「實效回應比率」彙報。2018年7月，民研計劃再調整實效回應比率的計算方法，因此改變前後的回應比率不能直接比較。
[3] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 16/10/19 | 17-23/10/19 | 1-8/11/19 | 15-21/11/19 | 28/11-3/12/19 | 13-18/12/19 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 745 | 1,038 | 1,016 | 1,008 | 1,014 | 1,046 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 80.0% | 63.2% | 69.4% | 74.1% | 63.2% | 61.6% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特首林鄭月娥評分 | 22.7 | 20.2 | 19.5 | 19.7 | 19.7 | 19.6+/-1.8 | -0.1 |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首支持率 | 15% | 11%[4] | 11% | 11% | 10% | 12+/-2% | +2% |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首反對率 | 79% | 82% | 82% | 82% | 82% | 81+/-2% | -2% |
| 支持率淨值 | -64% | -71% | -71% | -72% | -72% | -68+/-4% | +4% |
[4] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是特區政府的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 17-19/7/19 | 15-20/8/19 | 16-19/9/19 | 17-23/10/19 | 15-21/11/19 | 13-18/12/19 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 546 | 635 | 688 | 668 | 591 | 646 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 59.8% | 68.5% | 69.5% | 63.2% | 74.1% | 61.6% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特區政府表現滿意率[5] | 18% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 11% | 14+/-3% | +3% |
| 特區政府表現不滿率[5] | 70% | 77%[6] | 76% | 79% | 77% | 76+/-3% | -1% |
| 滿意率淨值 | -52% | -63%[6] | -63% | -69% | -66% | -62+/-6% | +4% |
| 平均量值[5] | 2.0 | 1.8[6] | 1.8 | 1.7[6] | 1.7 | 1.8+/-0.1 | -- |
[5] 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[6] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是市民對特區政府信任程度的最新結果：
| 調查日期 | 17-20/6/19 | 17-19/7/19 | 15-20/8/19 | 17-23/10/19 | 15-21/11/19 | 13-18/12/19 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 623 | 555 | 632 | 623 | 607 | 618 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 58.7% | 59.8% | 68.5% | 63.2% | 74.1% | 61.6% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 信任特區政府比率[7] | 28%[8] | 29% | 27% | 23% | 23% | 25+/-3% | +2% |
| 不信任特區政府比率[7] | 60%[8] | 60% | 64% | 68% | 64% | 63+/-4% | -1% |
| 信任淨值 | -32%[8] | -31% | -37% | -44% | -41% | -39+/-7% | +3% |
| 平均量值[7] | 2.4[8] | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2+/-0.1 | -- |
[7] 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[8] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為19.6分，其支持率為12%，反對率為81%，民望淨值為負68個百分點，全部數字與兩星期前分別不大。
特區政府方面，最新滿意率為14%，不滿率為76%，滿意率淨值為負62個百分點，平均量值為1.8分，即整體上接近「幾不滿」。信任程度方面，最新的信任比率為25%，不信任比率為63%，信任淨值為負39個百分點，平均量值為2.2分，即整體上接近「幾不信任」。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的調查項目，上次調查日期最早為15-21/11/2019，而今次調查日期則為13-18/12/2019，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 16/12/19 | 林鄭月娥到北京述職 |
| 11/12/19 | 監警會國際專家小組全體退出 |
| 8/12/19 | 民間人權陣線指約80萬人參與國際人權日遊行 |
| 4/12/19 | 政府公布新一輪紓困措施 |
| 2/12/19 | 財政司司長陳茂波預計本財政年度將錄得赤字 |
| 1/12/19 | 示威者於尖沙咀遊行 |
| 29/11/19 | 警察解封理工大學 |
| 28/11/19 | 美國總統特朗普簽署《香港人權與民主法案》 |
| 26/11/19 | 紅磡海底隧道重開 |
| 25/11/19 | 民主派取得大部分區議會議席 |
| 19/11/19 | 警察繼續圍堵理工大學 |
| 19/11/19 | 《禁蒙面法》被裁定違憲 |
| 18/11/19 | 警察繼續圍堵理工大學 |
| 17/11/19 | 警察圍堵理工大學並與示威者激烈衝突 |
數據分析
最新調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為19.6分，民望淨值為負68個百分點，兩者與兩星期前分別不大。特區政府的最新滿意率淨值為負62個百分點，信任淨值為負39個百分點，與11月中的數字變化不大。
Dec 20, 2019
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
POP releases findings of popularity of CE and SAR Government
Special Announcements
- The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
- POP’s usual practice is to issue releases before the middle and also the end of each year, under the names of “HKSAR anniversary” and “Year-end” survey series for public consumption. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures. The survey results on popularity of CE and SAR Government released today belong to the last of this survey series in 2019.
- Tentative release dates of remaining survey topics in 2019 are as follows:
l December 23 (Monday) Society’s current conditions and Public Sentiment Index
l December 30 (Monday) Year-end review
- POP began our Macau studies 28 years ago, including regular surveys and election studies, in order to build up progressively a set of scientific opinion polling mechanisms in the region and to provide data for future comparative studies. After 28 years, we hope to let the civil society decide whether our Macau studies should be continued or not. We have launched a crowdfunding target of $240,000 to let the general public, especially Macau citizens, make the call. If the target is met, we will quickly conduct a new round of survey covering the popularity of Macau CE and SAR Government, Macau people’s ethnic identity, trust towards the local and central governments, confidence in the future and in one country two systems, and so on. In case the funding target is not met, we will spend the funds on other POP survey series. For details of our previous Macau studies and latest crowdfunding scheme, please visit: https://wp.pori.hk/macau-annual-survey-index.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,046 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in mid-December. Latest results show that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 19.6 marks. Her net popularity is negative 68 percentage points. Both popularity figures have not changed much from two weeks ago. The latest net satisfaction of the HKSAR Government stands at negative 62 percentage points, the net trust value is negative 39 percentage points, figures have not changed much since mid-November. The effective response rate of the survey is 61.6%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-1.8 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 13-18/12/2019 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,046 (including 535 landline and 511 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate[2] | : | 61.6% |
| Sampling error[3] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-1.8 at 95% confidence level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 16/10/19 | 17-23/10/19 | 1-8/11/19 | 15-21/11/19 | 28/11-3/12/19 | 13-18/12/19 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 745 | 1,038 | 1,016 | 1,008 | 1,014 | 1,046 | -- |
| Response rate | 80.0% | 63.2% | 69.4% | 74.1% | 63.2% | 61.6% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 22.7 | 20.2 | 19.5 | 19.7 | 19.7 | 19.6+/-1.8 | -0.1 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 15% | 11%[4] | 11% | 11% | 10% | 12+/-2% | +2% |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 79% | 82% | 82% | 82% | 82% | 81+/-2% | -2% |
| Net approval rate | -64% | -71% | -71% | -72% | -72% | -68+/-4% | +4% |
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 17-19/7/19 | 15-20/8/19 | 16-19/9/19 | 17-23/10/19 | 15-21/11/19 | 13-18/12/19 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 546 | 635 | 688 | 668 | 591 | 646 | -- |
| Response rate | 59.8% | 68.5% | 69.5% | 63.2% | 74.1% | 61.6% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[5] | 18% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 11% | 14+/-3% | +3% |
| Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[5] | 70% | 77%[6] | 76% | 79% | 77% | 76+/-3% | -1% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -52% | -63%[6] | -63% | -69% | -66% | -62+/-6% | +4% |
| Mean value[5] | 2.0 | 1.8[6] | 1.8 | 1.7[6] | 1.7 | 1.8+/-0.1 | -- |
[5] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent figures regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 17-20/6/19 | 17-19/7/19 | 15-20/8/19 | 17-23/10/19 | 15-21/11/19 | 13-18/12/19 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 623 | 555 | 632 | 623 | 607 | 618 | -- |
| Response rate | 58.7% | 59.8% | 68.5% | 63.2% | 74.1% | 61.6% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Trust in HKSAR Government[7] | 28%[8] | 29% | 27% | 23% | 23% | 25+/-3% | +2% |
| Distrust in HKSAR Government[7] | 60%[8] | 60% | 64% | 68% | 64% | 63+/-4% | -1% |
| Net trust | -32%[8] | -31% | -37% | -44% | -41% | -39+/-7% | +3% |
| Mean value[7] | 2.4[8] | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2+/-0.1 | -- |
[7] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[8] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 19.6 marks. Her approval rate is 12%, disapproval rate 81%, giving a net popularity of negative 68 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from two weeks ago.
Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest satisfaction rate is 14%, whereas 76% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 62 percentage points. The mean score is 1.8, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general. Regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government, 25% of the respondents expressed trust, 63% expressed distrust. The net trust value is negative 39 percentage points. The mean score is 2.2, meaning close to “quite distrust” in general.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the earliest previous survey was conducted from 15 to 21 November, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 13 to 18 December, 2019. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures:
| 16/12/19 | Carrie Lam pays a duty visit to Beijing. |
| 11/12/19 | All members of the Independent Police Complaints Council International Expert Panel quit. |
| 8/12/19 | The Civil Human Rights Front announces that around eight hundred thousand people participated in the International Human Rights Day protest. |
| 4/12/19 | The government announces a new round of relief measures. |
| 2/12/19 | Financial Secretary Paul Chan forecasts a budget deficit in this fiscal year. |
| 1/12/19 | Protesters march along Tsim Sha Tsui. |
| 29/11/19 | The police end its siege of the Hong Kong Polytechnic University. |
| 28/11/19 | US President Donald Trump signs the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. |
| 26/11/19 | The Hung Hom Cross-Harbour Tunnel reopens. |
| 25/11/19 | The pro-democracy camp wins a majority of seats in the District Councils. |
| 19/11/19 | The police continue to surround the Hong Kong Polytechnic University. |
| 19/11/19 | The anti-mask law is ruled to be unconstitutional. |
| 18/11/19 | The police continue to surround the Hong Kong Polytechnic University. |
| 17/11/19 | The police surround the Hong Kong Polytechnic University and clash violently with protesters. |
Data Analysis
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 19.6 marks. Her net popularity is negative 68 percentage points. Both popularity figures have not changed much from two weeks ago. The latest net satisfaction of the HKSAR Government stands at negative 62 percentage points, the net trust value is negative 39 percentage points, figures have not changed much since mid-November.
