2020年1月14日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
2020年1月14日 新聞公報
民研計劃發放立法會議員民望和台灣及西藏問題的最新調查結果
特別宣佈
- 香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
- 香港民研今日發放的台灣及西藏問題調查，是本年7月1日前發放的最後一次，未來會否繼續，要視乎公眾是否支持。
公報簡要
民研計劃於一月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,011名香港居民。結果顯示，6位最多人認識的立法會議員分別是鄺俊宇、毛孟靜、李慧琼、楊岳橋、林卓廷和陳淑莊，支持度排首位的是鄺俊宇，其平均分較上次調查顯著上升5.3分至64.3分，第二至三位是林卓廷和陳淑莊，分別得56.6及56.5分，然後是毛孟靜和李慧琼，分別得54.0及28.6分，其中毛孟靜的評分較上次調查顯著上升5.2分。鄺俊宇和毛孟靜的評分分別創2016年和2017年有記錄以來新高，陳淑莊的評分則創2011年以來新高。台灣及西藏問題方面，香港市民對兩岸統一有信心的淨值顯著下跌15個百分點至負53，創1993年問題開展以來新低。國際空間方面，贊成台灣重新加入聯合國的淨值為正36個百分點，創1993年問題開展以來新高。台灣獨立方面，贊成淨值為正9個百分點，是1993年問題開展以來首次贊成多於反對。另外，認為「一國兩制」適用於台灣的淨值為負45個百分點，創1996年問題開展以來新低。至於西藏問題方面，贊成西藏獨立的淨值顯著上升14個百分點至負13，創1993年問題開展以來新高。調查的實效回應比率為72.0%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-3.2。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 3-8/1/2020[4] |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,011 (包括504個固網及507個手機樣本)[4] |
| 實效回應比率[2] | ： | 72.0%[4] |
| 抽樣誤差[3] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-3.2 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一八年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2018年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 民研計劃在2017年9月前以「整體回應比率」彙報樣本資料，2017年9月開始則以「實效回應比率」彙報。2018年7月，民研計劃再調整實效回應比率的計算方法，因此改變前後的回應比率不能直接比較。
[3] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
[4] 立法會議員提名階段調查日期為3-6/1/2020，成功樣本數目為504 (包括248個固網及256個手機樣本)，實效回應比率為74.0%；評分階段調查日期為7-8/1/2020，成功樣本數目為507 (包括256個固網及251個手機樣本)，實效回應比率為70.4%。
立法會議員民望
在提名調查中，被訪者可在未經提示下說出最多10名最熟悉的議員，結果首6位最多被訪者提及的議員分別是鄺俊宇、毛孟靜、李慧琼、楊岳橋、林卓廷和陳淑莊，他們於是被納入評分調查。在評分調查中，被訪者就個別議員以0至100分進行評分，0分代表絕對不支持，100分代表絕對支持，50分為一半半。統計結果後，認知度最低的再被剔除，之後再按支持度由高至低順序排列，得出五大立法會議員。以下是五大立法會議員的最新評分，按評分倒序排列[5]：
| 調查日期 | 14-19/3/19 | 5-8/7/19 | 21-23/10/19 | 7-8/1/20 | 最新變化 | |
| 樣本數目 | 582-697 | 514 | 526 | 507 | -- | |
| 回應比率 | 73.1% | 69.1% | 63.4% | 70.4% | -- | |
| 最新結果[6] | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | 認知率 | -- |
| 鄺俊宇 | -- | 61.6[8] | 59.0{1} | 64.3+/-3.2{1} | 86.1% | +5.3[7] |
| 林卓廷 | -- | -- | -- | 56.6+/-3.1{2} | 88.3% | -- |
| 陳淑莊 | 47.4{5} | -- | 52.3{2} | 56.5+/-3.1{3} | 93.5% | +4.2 |
| 毛孟靜 | 44.5{7} | 47.4{2} | 48.8{3} | 54.0+/-3.1{4} | 96.1% | +5.2[7] |
| 李慧琼 | 43.4{8} | 33.5{3}[7] | 25.3{4}[7] | 28.6+/-2.8{5} | 95.8% | +3.2 |
| 楊岳橋 | 49.4[8] | 57.4{1}[7] | 57.7[8] | 56.7+/-3.2[8] | 83.9% | -0.9 |
| 何君堯 | -- | -- | 17.1{5} | -- | -- | -- |
| 葉劉淑儀 | 48.3{4} | 33.1{4}[7] | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 梁美芬 | 38.9{9} | 27.1{5}[7] | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 田北辰 | 55.1{1} | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 涂謹申 | 52.1{2} | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 朱凱廸 | 48.7{3} | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 謝偉俊 | 45.5{6} | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 周浩鼎 | 35.5{10} | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 陳志全 | 44.5[8] | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
[5] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
[6] 括弧{ }內數字為排名。
[7] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
[8] 於評分調查認知率較低。
最新調查顯示，市民對立法會議員的最新支持度排名，首位是鄺俊宇，其平均分較上次調查顯著上升5.3分至64.3分，第二至三位是林卓廷和陳淑莊，分別得56.6及56.5分，然後是毛孟靜和李慧琼，分別得54.0及28.6分，其中毛孟靜的評分較上次調查顯著上升5.2分。在最新調查中，楊岳橋得56.7分，但由於認知率較低而被剔除。另外，鄺俊宇和毛孟靜的評分分別創2016年和2017年有記錄以來新高，陳淑莊的評分則創2011年以來新高。
須要說明，躋身「五大議員」的先決條件是巿民的熟悉程度，然後再按支持度排名。「五大」以外的議員，支持度可以很高或很低，但由於並非巿民最熟悉的議員，所以不在榜內。
台灣及西藏問題
市民對台灣及西藏問題意見的最新結果表列如下：
| 調查日期 | 1-6/2/18 | 6-9/8/18 | 7-11/1/19 | 2-8/7/19 | 3-8/1/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 696-786 | 553-612 | 505-550 | 575-648 | 585-657 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 62.5% | 51.2% | 55.6% | 67.4% | 72.0% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 兩岸統一信心正面比率 | 30%[9] | 35% | 28%[9] | 27% | 19+/-3% | -7%[9] |
| 兩岸統一信心負面比率 | 62% | 56%[9] [10] | 60% | 65% | 72+/-4% | +7%[9] |
| 信心淨值 | -32% | -22% | -33%[9] | -38% | -53+/-6% | -15%[9] |
| 贊成台灣重新加入聯合國比率 | 54%[9] | 59% | 54% | 57% | 63+/-4% | +6% |
| 反對台灣重新加入聯合國比率 | 32% | 29% | 29% | 27% | 26+/-4% | -- |
| 贊成淨值 | 22%[9] | 30% | 25% | 31% | 36+/-7% | +6% |
| 贊成台灣獨立比率 | 33% | 34% | 35% | 44%[9] | 48+/-4% | +4% |
| 反對台灣獨立比率 | 54% | 54% | 50% | 44%[9] | 39+/-4% | -6%[9] |
| 贊成淨值 | -20% | -20% | -16% | 0%[9] | 9+/-7% | +10% |
| 認為一國兩制適用於台灣的比率 | 35%[9] | 35% | 29%[9] | 27% | 21+/-3% | -6%[9] |
| 認為一國兩制不適用於台灣的比率 | 53% | 50% | 59%[9] | 63% | 66+/-4% | +3% |
| 適用淨值 | -18% | -14% | -30%[9] | -36% | -45+/-7% | -9% |
| 贊成西藏獨立比率 | 19% | 19% | 19% | 26%[9] | 34+/-4% | +8%[9] |
| 反對西藏獨立比率 | 63% | 63% | 58% | 53% | 46+/-4% | -7%[9] |
| 贊成淨值 | -44% | -44% | -39% | -27%[9] | -13+/-7% | +14%[9] |
[9] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
[10] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，是由於加權方法改變。如果以舊有加權方法處理數據，則差異並未超過抽樣誤差。
最新調查顯示，19%被訪的香港市民表示對兩岸統一有信心，72%表示沒有信心，信心淨值顯著下跌15個百分點至負53，創1993年問題開展以來新低。國際空間方面，63%贊成台灣重新加入聯合國，反對的佔26%，贊成淨值為正36個百分點，創1993年問題開展以來新高。台灣獨立方面，48%表示贊成，39%表示反對，贊成淨值為正9個百分點，是1993年問題開展以來首次贊成多於反對。另外，21%認為「一國兩制」適用於台灣，認為不適用的佔66%，適用淨值為負45個百分點，創1996年問題開展以來新低。至於西藏問題方面，46%被訪的香港市民反對西藏獨立，贊成者佔34%，贊成淨值顯著上升14個百分點至負13，創1993年問題開展以來新高。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為2-8/7/2019，而今次調查日期則為3-8/1/2020，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 3/1/20 | 武漢當局公布肺炎個案增至44宗 |
| 1/1/20 | 民間人權陣線舉辦元旦大遊行 |
| 31/12/19 | 除夕夜多區出現示威抗爭活動 |
| 25/12/19 | 聖誕節期間多區出現示威抗爭活動 |
| 16/12/19 | 林鄭月娥到北京述職 |
| 11/12/19 | 監警會國際專家小組全體退出 |
| 8/12/19 | 民間人權陣線指約80萬人參與國際人權日遊行 |
| 1/12/19 | 示威者於尖沙咀遊行 |
| 28/11/19 | 美國總統特朗普簽署《香港人權與民主法案》 |
| 25/11/19 | 民主派取得大部分區議會議席 |
| 17/11/19 | 警察圍堵理工大學並與示威者激烈衝突 |
| 16/11/19 | 解放軍出動清理路障 |
| 14/11/19 | 習近平就香港局勢表態 |
| 12/11/19 | 中文大學出現激烈警民衝突 |
| 11/11/19 | 交通警於西灣河開三槍擊中示威者 |
| 10/11/19 | 全港多區出現示威及警民衝突 |
| 8/11/19 | 將軍澳墮樓科大學生不治 |
| 23/10/19 | 陳同佳刑滿出獄 |
| 22/10/19 | 台灣要求派員來港押解陳同佳到台灣受審 |
| 30/8/19 | 多名民主派議員及香港眾志成員被捕 |
數據分析
立法會議員民望方面，6位最多人認識的議員分別是鄺俊宇、毛孟靜、李慧琼、楊岳橋、林卓廷和陳淑莊，支持度排首位的是鄺俊宇，其平均分較上次調查顯著上升5.3分至64.3分，第二至三位是林卓廷和陳淑莊，分別得56.6及56.5分，然後是毛孟靜和李慧琼，分別得54.0及28.6分，其中毛孟靜的評分較上次調查顯著上升5.2分。鄺俊宇和毛孟靜的評分分別創2016年和2017年有記錄以來新高，陳淑莊的評分則創2011年以來新高。
台灣及西藏問題方面，香港市民對兩岸統一有信心的淨值顯著下跌15個百分點至負53，創1993年問題開展以來新低。國際空間方面，贊成台灣重新加入聯合國的淨值為正36個百分點，創1993年問題開展以來新高。台灣獨立方面，贊成淨值為正9個百分點，是1993年問題開展以來首次贊成多於反對。另外，認為「一國兩制」適用於台灣的淨值為負45個百分點，創1996年問題開展以來新低。至於西藏問題方面，贊成西藏獨立的淨值顯著上升14個百分點至負13，創1993年問題開展以來新高。
Jan 14, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Press Release on January 14, 2020
POP releases popularity of Legislative Councillors
and the latest survey on Taiwan and Tibetan issues
Special Announcements
- The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
- The POP survey on Taiwan and Tibetan issues is the last survey before July 1, 2020, whether it will be continued or not will depend on public support.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,011 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early January. Latest results show that Roy Kwong, Claudia Mo, Starry Lee, Alvin Yeung, Lam Cheuk-ting and Tanya Chan are the six Legislative Councillors that top people’s mind now. In terms of rating, Roy Kwong tops the list with 64.3 marks, which represent a significant jump of 5.3 marks from the last survey. Lam Cheuk-ting and Tanya Chan rank the 2nd and 3rd with 56.6 and 56.5 marks respectively. Claudia Mo and Starry Lee followed behind with 54.0 and 28.6 marks respectively. Among them, the rating of Claudia Mo has increased significantly by 5.2 marks compared with the last survey. Meanwhile, the ratings of Roy Kwong and Claudia Mo have registered record high since records began in 2016 and 2017 respectively, while that of Tanya Chan has registered record high since 2011. As for Taiwan and Tibetan issues, Hong Kong people’s net confidence in the ultimate reunification across the strait has dropped significantly by 15 percentage points to negative 53, the lowest since the question was first asked in 1993. Regarding international space, net support in Taiwan’s rejoining the United Nations stands at positive 36 percentage points, the highest since the question was first asked in 1993. As for the independence of Taiwan, net support stands at positive 9 percentage points, the first time support outnumbers opposition since the question was first asked in 1993. Meanwhile, net value in believing “one country, two systems” was applicable to Taiwan stands at negative 45 percentage points, the lowest since the question was first asked in 1996. Regarding Tibetan issues, net support in the independence of Tibet has increased significantly by 14 percentage points to negative 13, the highest since the question was first asked in 1993. The effective response rate of the survey is 72.0%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-3.2 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 3-8/1/2020[4] |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,011 (including 504 landline and 507 mobile samples)[4] |
| Effective response rate[2] | : | 72.0%[4] |
| Sampling error[3] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-3.2 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
[4] For the naming stage of Legislative Councillors, the date of survey is 3-6/1/2020, the sample size is 504 (including 248 landline and 256 mobile samples) and the effective response rate is 74.0%. For the rating stage, the date of survey is 7-8/1/2020, the sample size is 507 (including 256 landline and 251 mobile samples) and the effective response rate is 70.4%.
Popularity of Legislative Councillors
In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 councillors whom they knew best. Roy Kwong, Claudia Mo, Starry Lee, Alvin Yeung, Lam Cheuk-ting and Tanya Chan were the top 6 councillors mentioned most frequently, they therefore entered the rating survey. In the rating survey, respondents were asked to rate individual councillors using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings to become the top 5 Legislative Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 Legislative Councillors are summarized below, in descending order of support ratings[5]:
| Date of survey | 14-19/3/19 | 5-8/7/19 | 21-23/10/19 | 7-8/1/20 | Latest change | |
| Sample size | 582-697 | 514 | 526 | 507 | -- | |
| Response rate | 73.1% | 69.1% | 63.4% | 70.4% | -- | |
| Latest findings[6] | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | Recognition rate | -- |
| Roy Kwong | -- | 61.6[8] | 59.0{1} | 64.3+/-3.2{1} | 86.1% | +5.3[7] |
| Lam Cheuk-ting | -- | -- | -- | 56.6+/-3.1{2} | 88.3% | -- |
| Tanya Chan | 47.4{5} | -- | 52.3{2} | 56.5+/-3.1{3} | 93.5% | +4.2 |
| Claudia Mo | 44.5{7} | 47.4{2} | 48.8{3} | 54.0+/-3.1{4} | 96.1% | +5.2[7] |
| Starry Lee | 43.4{8} | 33.5{3}[7] | 25.3{4}[7] | 28.6+/-2.8{5} | 95.8% | +3.2 |
| Alvin Yeung | 49.4[8] | 57.4{1}[7] | 57.7[8] | 56.7+/-3.2[8] | 83.9% | -0.9 |
| Junius Ho | -- | -- | 17.1{5} | -- | -- | -- |
| Regina Ip | 48.3{4} | 33.1{4}[7] | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Priscilla Leung | 38.9{9} | 27.1{5}[7] | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Michael Tien | 55.1{1} | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| James To | 52.1{2} | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Eddie Chu | 48.7{3} | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Paul Tse | 45.5{6} | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Holden Chow | 35.5{10} | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Raymond Chan | 44.5[8] | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
[5] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[6] Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings.
[7] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[8] Recognition rates were comparatively low in the rating survey.
The latest survey shows that Roy Kwong is the most popularly supported councillor, attaining 64.3 marks, which represent a significant jump of 5.3 marks from the last survey. Lam Cheuk-ting and Tanya Chan rank the 2nd and 3rd with 56.6 and 56.5 marks respectively. Claudia Mo and Starry Lee followed behind with 54.0 and 28.6 marks respectively. Among them, the rating of Claudia Mo has increased significantly by 5.2 marks compared with the last survey. In the latest survey, Alvin Yeung obtained a rating of 56.7 marks, but was dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. Meanwhile, the ratings of Roy Kwong and Claudia Mo have registered record high since records began in 2016 and 2017 respectively, while that of Tanya Chan has registered record high since 2011.
It should be noted, however, that our list of “top 5” only includes LegCo members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the “top 5” list by design.
Taiwan and Tibetan Issues
People’s latest views towards various Taiwan and Tibetan issues are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 1-6/2/18 | 6-9/8/18 | 7-11/1/19 | 2-8/7/19 | 3-8/1/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 696-786 | 553-612 | 505-550 | 575-648 | 585-657 | -- |
| Response rate | 62.5% | 51.2% | 55.6% | 67.4% | 72.0% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Confidence in cross-strait reunification | 30%[9] | 35% | 28%[9] | 27% | 19+/-3% | -7%[9] |
| No confidence in cross-strait reunification | 62% | 56%[9] [10] | 60% | 65% | 72+/-4% | +7%[9] |
| Net confidence | -32% | -22% | -33%[9] | -38% | -53+/-6% | -15%[9] |
| Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Support rate | 54%[9] | 59% | 54% | 57% | 63+/-4% | +6% |
| Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Opposition rate | 32% | 29% | 29% | 27% | 26+/-4% | -- |
| Net support | 22%[9] | 30% | 25% | 31% | 36+/-7% | +6% |
| Taiwan independence: Support rate | 33% | 34% | 35% | 44%[9] | 48+/-4% | +4% |
| Taiwan independence: Opposition rate | 54% | 54% | 50% | 44%[9] | 39+/-4% | -6%[9] |
| Net support | -20% | -20% | -16% | 0%[9] | 9+/-7% | +10% |
| Believe “one country, two systems” is applicable to Taiwan | 35%[9] | 35% | 29%[9] | 27% | 21+/-3% | -6%[9] |
| Believe “one country, two systems” is not applicable to Taiwan | 53% | 50% | 59%[9] | 63% | 66+/-4% | +3% |
| Net value of applicability | -18% | -14% | -30%[9] | -36% | -45+/-7% | -9% |
| Tibet independence: Support rate | 19% | 19% | 19% | 26%[9] | 34+/-4% | +8%[9] |
| Tibet independence: Opposition rate | 63% | 63% | 58% | 53% | 46+/-4% | -7%[9] |
| Net support | -44% | -44% | -39% | -27%[9] | -13+/-7% | +14%[9] |
[9] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[10] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level because of a change in the weighting method. If the previous weighting method was used, the difference would not have gone beyond the sampling error.
Latest survey revealed that 19% of Hong Kong people interviewed were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait while 72% expressed no confidence. Net confidence has dropped significantly by 15 percentage points to negative 53, the lowest since the question was first asked in 1993. Regarding international space, 63% supported Taiwan’s rejoining the United Nations while 26% opposed that. Net support stands at positive 36 percentage points, the highest since the question was first asked in 1993. As for the independence of Taiwan, 48% showed support while 39% opposed it, resulting in net support of positive 9 percentage points, the first time support outnumbers opposition since the question was first asked in 1993. Meanwhile, 21% believed “one country, two systems” was applicable to Taiwan while 66% believed it was not. Net value of applicability stands at negative 45 percentage points, the lowest since the question was first asked in 1996. Regarding Tibetan issues, 46% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Tibet whereas 34% showed support. Net support has increased significantly by 14 percentage points to negative 13, the highest since the question was first asked in 1993.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 2 to 8 July, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 3 to 8 January, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 3/1/20 | Wuhan authorities announce an increase of pneumonia cases to 44. |
| 1/1/20 | The Civil Human Rights Front organizes the New Year Rally. |
| 31/12/19 | Protesting activities occur in multiple districts on New Year’s Eve. |
| 25/12/19 | Protesting activities occur in multiple districts during Christmas. |
| 16/12/19 | Carrie Lam pays a duty visit to Beijing. |
| 11/12/19 | All members of the Independent Police Complaints Council International Expert Panel quit. |
| 8/12/19 | The Civil Human Rights Front announces that around eight hundred thousand people participated in the International Human Rights Day protest. |
| 1/12/19 | Protesters march along Tsim Sha Tsui. |
| 28/11/19 | US President Donald Trump signs the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. |
| 25/11/19 | The pro-democracy camp wins a majority of seats in the District Councils. |
| 17/11/19 | The police surround the Hong Kong Polytechnic University and clash violently with protesters. |
| 16/11/19 | The People’s Liberation Army clears roadblocks. |
| 14/11/19 | Xi Jinping expresses his views on Hong Kong. |
| 12/11/19 | Violent conflicts between protestors and the police occur in the Chinese University of Hong Kong. |
| 11/11/19 | A traffic policeman fires three live rounds at a protester. |
| 10/11/19 | Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in multiple districts in Hong Kong. |
| 8/11/19 | HKUST student who fell from height in Tseung Kwan O passes away. |
| 23/10/19 | Chan Tong-kai is released from prison. |
| 22/10/19 | Taiwan requests to send officers to Hong Kong to escort Chan Tong-kai to Taiwan for trial. |
| 30/8/19 | Several pro-democracy Legislative Councillors and Demosistō members are arrested. |
Data Analysis
Regarding the popularity of Legislative Councillors, Roy Kwong, Claudia Mo, Starry Lee, Alvin Yeung, Lam Cheuk-ting and Tanya Chan are the six councillors that top people’s mind now. In terms of rating, Roy Kwong tops the list with 64.3 marks, which represent a significant jump of 5.3 marks from the last survey. Lam Cheuk-ting and Tanya Chan rank the 2nd and 3rd with 56.6 and 56.5 marks respectively. Claudia Mo and Starry Lee followed behind with 54.0 and 28.6 marks respectively. Among them, the rating of Claudia Mo has increased significantly by 5.2 marks compared with the last survey. Meanwhile, the ratings of Roy Kwong and Claudia Mo have registered record high since records began in 2016 and 2017 respectively, while that of Tanya Chan has registered record high since 2011.
As for Taiwan and Tibetan issues, Hong Kong people’s net confidence in the ultimate reunification across the strait has dropped significantly by 15 percentage points to negative 53, the lowest since the question was first asked in 1993. Regarding international space, net support in Taiwan’s rejoining the United Nations stands at positive 36 percentage points, the highest since the question was first asked in 1993. As for the independence of Taiwan, net support stands at positive 9 percentage points, the first time support outnumbers opposition since the question was first asked in 1993. Meanwhile, net value in believing “one country, two systems” was applicable to Taiwan stands at negative 45 percentage points, the lowest since the question was first asked in 1996. Regarding Tibetan issues, net support in the independence of Tibet has increased significantly by 14 percentage points to negative 13, the highest since the question was first asked in 1993.
