2020年1月21日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
2020年1月21日 新聞公報
民研計劃發放兩岸政治人物民望
特別宣佈
- 香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
- 香港民研今日發放的兩岸政治人物民望調查，是本年7月1日前發放的最後一次，未來會否繼續，要視乎公眾是否支持。
公報簡要
民研計劃於一月由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式，分兩階段成功訪問了500和508名香港居民。結果顯示，在十位香港市民最熟悉的當今中國及台灣領導人之中，以支持度排名，朱鎔基繼續名列首位，得59.0分；第二至第十位分別為蔡英文、溫家寶、胡錦濤、馬英九、李克強、習近平、江澤民、韓國瑜和陳水扁。相比上次調查，韓國瑜、馬英九、習近平、朱鎔基、李克強、溫家寶、江澤民和胡錦濤的評分錄得顯著跌幅。當中馬英九的評分創1999年以來新低，其他人的評分更跌至其上榜以來新低。相反，只有蔡英文的評分顯著上升，同時創其2011年上榜以來新高。評分調查的實效回應比率為57.7%。在95%置信水平下，調查的評分誤差不超過+/-3.0。
樣本資料
| 提名階段[4] | 評分階段[4] | ||
| 調查日期 | ： | 9-10/1/2020 | 14-15/1/2020 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 500 (包括251個固網及249個手機樣本) | 508 (包括264個固網及244個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率[2] | ： | 67.9% | 57.7% |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 | |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 | |
| 抽樣誤差[3] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，評分誤差不超過+/-3.0 | |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一八年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2018年版）。 | |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 民研計劃在2017年9月前以「整體回應比率」彙報樣本資料，2017年9月開始則以「實效回應比率」彙報。2018年7月，民研計劃再調整實效回應比率的計算方法，因此改變前後的回應比率不能直接比較。
[3] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
[4] 調查分兩個階段進行，即提名和評分階段。
最新數據
在提名調查中，被訪者可在未經提示下說出最多10名最熟悉的當今中國及台灣領導人，首12位最多被訪者提及的則被納入評分調查。在評分調查中，被訪者就個別政治人物以0至100分進行評分，0分代表絕對不支持，100分代表絕對支持，50分為一半半。統計結果後，認知度最低的再被剔除，之後再按支持度由高至低順序排列，得出十大兩岸政治人物。以下是十大兩岸政治人物的最新評分，按評分倒序排列[5]：
| 調查日期 | 17-20/7/17 | 20-23/7/18 | 17-19/7/19 | 14-15/1/20 | 最新變化 | |
| 樣本數目 | 732-816[9] | 500 | 557-690 | 508 | -- | |
| 回應比率 | 63.9% | 50.8% | 59.8% | 57.7% | -- | |
| 最新結果[6] | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | 認知率 | -- |
| 朱鎔基 | 67.5{1}[8] | 66.8{1} | 65.3{1} | 59.0+/-2.6{1} | 86.8% | -6.3[8] |
| 蔡英文 | 45.4{7}[8] | 43.0{8} | 47.4{6}[8] | 57.6+/-2.7{2} | 94.4% | +10.2[8] |
| 溫家寶 | 58.7{2}[8] | 59.1{3} | 57.2{2} | 51.7+/-2.5{3} | 92.4% | -5.6[8] |
| 胡錦濤 | 54.9{4}[8] | 56.2{6} | 53.0{4}[8] | 48.4+/-2.4{4} | 89.6% | -4.6[8] |
| 馬英九 | 53.0{6}[8] | 56.7{5}[8] | 53.2{3}[8] | 44.8+/-2.4{5} | 92.1% | -8.4[8] |
| 李克強 | 54.2{5}[8] | 57.3{4} | 50.5{5}[8] | 44.6+/-2.6{6} | 89.6% | -6.0[8] |
| 習近平 | 57.6{3}[8] | 59.3{2} | 47.1{7}[8] | 39.9+/-3.0{7} | 95.6% | -7.2[8] |
| 江澤民 | 44.6{8}[8] | 45.9{7} | 43.8{8} | 38.3+/-2.5{8} | 88.5% | -5.5[8] |
| 韓國瑜 | -- | -- | 40.1[7] | 28.6+/-2.3{9} | 89.7% | -11.5[8] |
| 陳水扁 | 24.9{10} | 24.7{10} | 22.8{10} | 22.9+/-2.0{10} | 91.9% | +0.1 |
| 李登輝 | 39.1[7] [8] | 39.9[7] | 38.2{9} | 37.0+/-2.5[7] | 80.7% | -1.2 |
| 宋楚瑜 | -- | -- | -- | 32.0+/-2.1[7] | 81.9% | -- |
| 韓正 | -- | -- | 41.9[7] | -- | -- | -- |
| 李鵬 | 38.4{9} | 38.5{9} | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 王岐山 | -- | 56.2[7] | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 張德江 | 41.8[7] [8] | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
[5] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
[6] 括弧{ }內數字為排名。
[7] 於評分調查認知率較低。
[8] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
[9] 該調查結果公佈時尚未包括手機樣本。上表結果已更新為固網樣本及手機樣本的合併統計數字，惟於判斷變化是否超過抽樣誤差時仍然使用首次公佈的數字計算。更新統計數字後，胡錦濤的評分超越李克強，於該次調查中排名第四。
最新調查顯示，在十位香港市民最熟悉的當今中國及台灣領導人之中，以支持度排名，朱鎔基名列首位，得59.0分；蔡英文、溫家寶和胡錦濤名列第二至四位，得57.6、51.7及48.4分；馬英九、李克強、習近平和江澤民分別得44.8、44.6、39.9及38.3分，位列第五至八位。韓國瑜和陳水扁則分別得28.6及22.9分，佔第九至十位。李登輝和宋楚瑜分別得37.0及32.0分，但由於認知率較低而被剔除。
相比上次調查，韓國瑜、馬英九、習近平、朱鎔基、李克強、溫家寶、江澤民和胡錦濤的評分錄得顯著跌幅。當中馬英九的評分創1999年以來新低，其他人的評分更跌至其上榜以來新低。相反，只有蔡英文的評分顯著上升，同時創其2011年上榜以來新高。另外，宋楚瑜於2015年後再次被納入調查，評分則創其1999年上榜以來新低。
須要說明，躋身「十大兩岸政治人物」的先決條件是香港巿民的熟悉程度，然後再按支持度排名。「十大」以外的兩岸政治人物，支持度可以很高或很低，但由於並非巿民最熟悉的人物，所以不在榜內。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的調查項目，上次調查日期為17-19/7/2019，而今次調查日期則為14-15/1/2020，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 11/1/20 | 蔡英文勝出台灣總統選舉 |
| 9/1/20 | 專家指武漢肺炎由新型冠狀病毒引起 |
| 6/1/20 | 中聯辦主任駱惠寧上任 |
| 3/1/20 | 武漢當局公布肺炎個案增至44宗 |
| 28/12/19 | 來自中國大陸的旅行團數量大跌 |
| 18/12/19 | 習近平到訪澳門 |
| 16/12/19 | 林鄭月娥到北京述職 |
| 13/12/19 | 中美達成首階段經貿協議 |
| 3/12/19 | 紀念澳門基本法實施20周年座談會於北京舉行 |
| 14/11/19 | 習近平就香港局勢表態 |
| 1/11/19 | 第十九屆四中全會新聞發布會舉行 |
| 22/10/19 | 台灣要求派員來港押解陳同佳到台灣受審 |
數據分析
在十位香港市民最熟悉的當今中國及台灣領導人之中，以支持度排名，朱鎔基繼續名列首位，得59.0分；第二至第十位分別為蔡英文、溫家寶、胡錦濤、馬英九、李克強、習近平、江澤民、韓國瑜和陳水扁。相比上次調查，韓國瑜、馬英九、習近平、朱鎔基、李克強、溫家寶、江澤民和胡錦濤的評分錄得顯著跌幅。當中馬英九的評分創1999年以來新低，其他人的評分更跌至其上榜以來新低。相反，只有蔡英文的評分顯著上升，同時創其2011年上榜以來新高。
Jan 21, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Press Release on January 21, 2020
POP releases popularity of cross-strait political figures
Special Announcements
- The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
- The POP survey on popularity of cross-strait political figures is the last survey before July 1, 2020, whether it will be continued or not will depend on public support.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 500 and 508 Hong Kong residents in a double stage random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in January. Latest results show that among the ten Mainland China and Taiwan political figures most well-known to Hong Kong people, Zhu Rongji continued to rank first in terms of popularity rating, attaining 59.0 marks. The 2nd to 10th ranks went to Tsai Ing-wen, Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao, Ma Ying-jeou, Li Keqiang, Xi Jinping, Jiang Zemin, Han Kuo-yu and Chen Shui-bian. Compared to the previous survey, the support ratings of Han Kuo-yu, Ma Ying-jeou, Xi Jinping, Zhu Rongji, Li Keqiang, Wen Jiabao, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao have registered significant drops. Among them, that of Ma Ying-jeou has registered new record low since 1999, while the ratings of others have even dropped to their record low since they entered the list. On the contrary, the rating of Tsai Ing-wen has increased significantly and registered record high since she entered the list in 2011. The effective response rate of the rating survey is 57.7%. The maximum sampling error of ratings is +/-3.0 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Naming stage[4] | Rating stage[4] | ||
| Date of survey | : | 9-10/1/2020 | 14-15/1/2020 |
| Sample size[1] | : | 500 (including 251 landline and 249 mobile samples) | 508 (including 264 landline and 244 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate[2] | : | 67.9% | 57.7% |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers | |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above | |
| Sampling error[3] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of ratings not more than +/-3.0 at 95% conf. level | |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. | |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
[4] The survey was conducted in two stages, i.e. naming and rating stages.
Latest Figures
In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 contemporary leaders in China or Taiwan whom they knew best. The top 12 nominees then entered the rating survey. In the rating survey, respondents were asked to rate individual political figures using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom ones in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings to become the top 10 cross-strait political figures. Recent ratings of the top 10 cross-strait political figures are summarized below, in descending order of support ratings[5]:
| Date of survey | 17-20/7/17 | 20-23/7/18 | 17-19/7/19 | 14-15/1/20 | Latest change | |
| Sample size | 732-816[9] | 500 | 557-690 | 508 | -- | |
| Response rate | 63.9% | 50.8% | 59.8% | 57.7% | -- | |
| Latest findings[6] | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | Recognition rate | -- |
| Zhu Rongji | 67.5{1}[8] | 66.8{1} | 65.3{1} | 59.0+/-2.6{1} | 86.8% | -6.3[8] |
| Tsai Ing-wen | 45.4{7}[8] | 43.0{8} | 47.4{6}[8] | 57.6+/-2.7{2} | 94.4% | +10.2[8] |
| Wen Jiabao | 58.7{2}[8] | 59.1{3} | 57.2{2} | 51.7+/-2.5{3} | 92.4% | -5.6[8] |
| Hu Jintao | 54.9{4}[8] | 56.2{6} | 53.0{4}[8] | 48.4+/-2.4{4} | 89.6% | -4.6[8] |
| Ma Ying-jeou | 53.0{6}[8] | 56.7{5}[8] | 53.2{3}[8] | 44.8+/-2.4{5} | 92.1% | -8.4[8] |
| Li Keqiang | 54.2{5}[8] | 57.3{4} | 50.5{5}[8] | 44.6+/-2.6{6} | 89.6% | -6.0[8] |
| Xi Jinping | 57.6{3}[8] | 59.3{2} | 47.1{7}[8] | 39.9+/-3.0{7} | 95.6% | -7.2[8] |
| Jiang Zemin | 44.6{8}[8] | 45.9{7} | 43.8{8} | 38.3+/-2.5{8} | 88.5% | -5.5[8] |
| Han Kuo-yu | -- | -- | 40.1[7] | 28.6+/-2.3{9} | 89.7% | -11.5[8] |
| Chen Shui-bian | 24.9{10} | 24.7{10} | 22.8{10} | 22.9+/-2.0{10} | 91.9% | +0.1 |
| Lee Teng-hui | 39.1[7] [8] | 39.9[7] | 38.2{9} | 37.0+/-2.5[7] | 80.7% | -1.2 |
| Soong Chu-yu | -- | -- | -- | 32.0+/-2.1[7] | 81.9% | -- |
| Han Zheng | -- | -- | 41.9[7] | -- | -- | -- |
| Li Peng | 38.4{9} | 38.5{9} | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Wang Qishan | -- | 56.2[7] | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Zhang Dejiang | 41.8[7] [8] | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
[5] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[6] Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings.
[7] Recognition rates were comparatively low in the rating survey.
[8] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[9] The mobile sample was not included when survey results were released. The figures in the table above have been updated to reflect the results based on the combined landline and mobile sample. However, whether changes have gone beyond sampling errors is still determined based on the figures in the first release. After the update, the rating of Hu Jintao surpasses that of Li Keqiang and should be ranked the fourth in that survey.
Latest survey revealed that, among the ten Mainland China and Taiwan political figures most well-known to Hong Kong people, Zhu Rongji ranked first in terms of popularity rating, attaining 59.0 marks. The 2nd to 4th ranks went to Tsai Ing-wen, Wen Jiabao and Hu Jintao with scores of 57.6, 51.7 and 48.4 marks respectively. Ma Ying-jeou, Li Keqiang, Xi Jinping and Jiang Zemin occupied the 5th to 8th ranks with 44.8, 44.6, 39.9 and 38.3 marks correspondingly. The 9th to 10th ranks fell to Han Kuo-yu and Chen Shui-bian with respective scores of 28.6 and 22.9 marks. For this latest survey, Lee Teng-hui and Soong Chu-yu obtained support ratings of 37.0 and 32.0 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates.
Compared to the previous survey, the support ratings of Han Kuo-yu, Ma Ying-jeou, Xi Jinping, Zhu Rongji, Li Keqiang, Wen Jiabao, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao have registered significant drops. Among them, that of Ma Ying-jeou has registered new record low since 1999, while the ratings of others have even dropped to their record low since they entered the list. On the contrary, the rating of Tsai Ing-wen has increased significantly and registered record high since she entered the list in 2011. Besides, Soong Chu-yu is included in the survey again since 2015 and his rating has registered record low since he entered the list in 1999.
It should be noted that our list of “top 10 cross-strait political figures” only includes those best known to the Hong Kong public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political figures may have very high or low support ratings, but they are excluded from the list because they are relatively less well-known.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 17 to 19 July, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 14 to 15 January, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 11/1/20 | Tsai Ing-wen wins Taiwan’s presidential election. |
| 9/1/20 | Experts say Wuhan pneumonia is caused by a new coronavirus. |
| 6/1/20 | Director of the Liaison Office Luo Huining starts his first day on job. |
| 3/1/20 | Wuhan authorities announce an increase of pneumonia cases to 44. |
| 28/12/19 | Number of tours for tourists from mainland China has plunged. |
| 18/12/19 | Xi Jinping visits Macau. |
| 16/12/19 | Carrie Lam pays a duty visit to Beijing. |
| 13/12/19 | China and the US reach agreement on phase one of the trade deal. |
| 3/12/19 | A seminar marking the 20th anniversary of implementing Macau Basic Law is held in Beijing. |
| 14/11/19 | Xi Jinping expresses his views on Hong Kong. |
| 1/11/19 | The press conference on the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Communist Party of China Central Committee is held. |
| 22/10/19 | Taiwan requests to send officers to Hong Kong to escort Chan Tong-kai to Taiwan for trial. |
Data Analysis
Among the ten Mainland China and Taiwan political figures most well-known to Hong Kong people, Zhu Rongji continued to rank first in terms of popularity rating, attaining 59.0 marks. The 2nd to 10th ranks went to Tsai Ing-wen, Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao, Ma Ying-jeou, Li Keqiang, Xi Jinping, Jiang Zemin, Han Kuo-yu and Chen Shui-bian. Compared to the previous survey, the support ratings of Han Kuo-yu, Ma Ying-jeou, Xi Jinping, Zhu Rongji, Li Keqiang, Wen Jiabao, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao have registered significant drops. Among them, that of Ma Ying-jeou has registered new record low since 1999, while the ratings of others have even dropped to their record low since they entered the list. On the contrary, the rating of Tsai Ing-wen has increased significantly and registered record high since she entered the list in 2011.
