2020年2月4日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
2020年2月4日 新聞公報
民研計劃發放香港巿民對各地人民及政府的觀感
特別宣佈
- 香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
- 香港民研今日發放的香港巿民對各地人民及政府觀感調查，是本年7月1日前發放的最後一次，未來會否繼續，要視乎公眾是否支持。
公報簡要
民研計劃於一月由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式，分兩階段成功訪問了407和505名香港居民。調查顯示，在本港確診首宗武漢冠狀病毒個案前，香港巿民對各地人民的好感淨值，全部都高於對當地政府的好感淨值，當中對中國人民，及美國、澳門、中國和香港政府的好感淨值為負數。相比半年前，香港巿民對美國和日本政府的好感淨值顯著上升，而對澳門、英國和日本人民，以及香港、澳門、英國和中國政府的好感淨值則顯著下跌。歷史紀錄方面，香港、中國和澳門政府的好感淨值創1997年有紀錄以來新低，澳洲和英國政府則分別創2000和2014年以來新低。相反，台灣和日本政府則創1997年有紀錄以來新高，美國政府亦創2009年以來新高。此外，香港巿民對中國人民的好感淨值創2013年以來新低，對法國人民的好感淨值則創2007年有紀錄以來新高。評價階段調查的實效回應比率為71.2%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%。
樣本資料
| 提名階段 | 評價階段 | ||
| 調查日期 | ： | 16-17/1/2020 | 20-21/1/2020 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 407 (包括204個固網及203個手機樣本) |
505 (包括251個固網及254個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率[2] | ： | 65.5% | 71.2% |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 | |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 | |
| 抽樣誤差[3] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7% | |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一八年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2018年版）。 | |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 民研計劃在2017年9月前以「整體回應比率」彙報樣本資料，2017年9月開始則以「實效回應比率」彙報。2018年7月，民研計劃再調整實效回應比率的計算方法，因此改變前後的回應比率不能直接比較。
[3] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
在提名調查中，被訪者可在未經提示下說出最多10個除了香港、大陸、台灣和澳門以外最熟悉的國家或地區政府，首5位最多被訪者提及的則被納入評價調查。在評價調查中，被訪者就香港、大陸、台灣和澳門以及該五個國家或地區的人民及政府分別作出評價。以下是香港市民對兩岸四地人民及政府的觀感：
| 調查日期 | 16-21/8/17 | 18-19/7/18 | 17-19/7/19 | 20-21/1/20 | ||
| 樣本數目 | 763-811[7] | 502 | 592-633 | 505 | ||
| 回應比率 | 63.9% | 47.4% | 59.8% | 71.2% | ||
| 最新結果[4] | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | 最新變化 | |
| 香港 | 人民好感 | 46%[5] | 50% | 63%[5] | 57+/-4% | -6% |
| 人民反感 | 13% | 14% | 12% | 13+/-3% | +1% | |
| 淨值 | 34%[5] | 36% | 51%[5] | 44+/-6% | -6% | |
| 政府好感 | 40%[5] | 38% | 26%[5] | 13+/-3% | -13%[5] | |
| 政府反感 | 32%[5] | 34% | 58%[5] | 74+/-4% | +16%[5] | |
| 淨值 | 9%[5] | 4% | -32%[5] | -61+/-6% | -29%[5] | |
| 中國 | 人民好感 | 32% | 31% | 30% | 30+/-4% | -- |
| 人民反感 | 27% | 29% | 34% | 37+/-4% | +3% | |
| 淨值 | 4% | 2% | -4% | -7+/-7% | -3% | |
| 政府好感 | 32% | 31% | 25%[5] | 23+/-4% | -2% | |
| 政府反感 | 35% | 39% | 51%[5] | 59+/-4% | +8%[5] | |
| 淨值 | -3% | -8% | -26%[5] | -36+/-7% | -10%[5] | |
| 台灣 | 人民好感 | 60%[5] | 67%[5] [6] | 76%[5] | 74+/-4% | -2% |
| 人民反感 | 4% | 5% | 2%[5] | 4+/-2% | +3%[5] | |
| 淨值 | 56% | 62% | 75%[5] | 69+/-5% | -5% | |
| 政府好感 | 24%[5] | 34%[5] | 52%[5] | 55+/-4% | +3% | |
| 政府反感 | 22%[5] | 25% | 19%[5] | 18+/-3% | -1% | |
| 淨值 | 2%[5] | 9% | 33%[5] | 37+/-7% | +4% | |
| 澳門 | 人民好感 | 44%[5] | 51%[5] | 62%[5] | 51+/-4% | -11%[5] |
| 人民反感 | 4%[5] | 4% | 3% | 9+/-3% | +7%[5] | |
| 淨值 | 40%[5] | 47%[5] | 60%[5] | 42+/-6% | -18%[5] | |
| 政府好感 | 34% | 37% | 43%[5] | 31+/-4% | -12%[5] | |
| 政府反感 | 17% | 22%[5] [6] | 23% | 35+/-4% | +12%[5] | |
| 淨值 | 18% | 15% | 20% | -4+/-7% | -24%[5] | |
[4] 數字採自五等量尺。
[5] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
[6] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，是由於加權方法改變。如果以舊有加權方法處理數據，則差異並未超過抽樣誤差。
[7] 該調查結果公佈時尚未包括手機樣本。上表結果已更新為固網樣本及手機樣本的合併統計數字，惟於判斷變化是否超過抽樣誤差時仍然使用首次公佈的數字計算。
以下是香港市民對部分其他國家或地區的人民及政府的觀感，按對人民好感淨值倒序排列：
| 調查日期 | 16-21/8/17 | 18-19/7/18 | 17-19/7/19 | 20-21/1/20 | ||
| 樣本數目 | 765-807[11] | 502 | 598-616 | 505 | ||
| 回應比率 | 63.9% | 47.4% | 59.8% | 71.2% | ||
| 最新結果[8] | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | 最新變化 | |
| 日本 | 人民好感 | 59%[9] | 68%[9] | 76%[9] | 71+/-4% | -5% |
| 人民反感 | 7% | 6% | 3%[9] | 7+/-2% | +4%[9] | |
| 淨值 | 52% | 63%[9] | 73%[9] | 64+/-5% | -8%[9] | |
| 政府好感 | 21% | 33%[9] | 39%[9] | 46+/-4% | +7%[9] | |
| 政府反感 | 39% | 31%[9] | 27% | 17+/-3% | -9%[9] | |
| 淨值 | -18% | 2%[9] | 12%[9] | 29+/-7% | +16%[9] | |
| 澳洲 | 人民好感 | 45% | 60%[9] | -- | 54+/-4% | -- |
| 人民反感 | 3% | 3% | -- | 4+/-2% | -- | |
| 淨值 | 42% | 57%[9] | -- | 50+/-5% | -- | |
| 政府好感 | 39%[9] | 50%[9] | -- | 38+/-4% | -- | |
| 政府反感 | 3% | 6%[9] | -- | 12+/-3% | -- | |
| 淨值 | 36%[9] | 43%[9] [10] | -- | 26+/-6% | -- | |
| 英國 | 人民好感 | 46% | 54%[9] | 63%[9] | 51+/-4% | -13%[9] |
| 人民反感 | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6+/-2% | +1% | |
| 淨值 | 42% | 48% | 58%[9] | 44+/-5% | -14%[9] | |
| 政府好感 | 38%[9] | 46%[9] | 51% | 40+/-4% | -10%[9] | |
| 政府反感 | 12%[9] | 14% | 17% | 21+/-4% | +4% | |
| 淨值 | 26%[9] | 32% | 34% | 19+/-7% | -14%[9] | |
| 法國 | 人民好感 | 34% | 41%[9] | 42% | 43+/-4% | +1% |
| 人民反感 | 7% | 5% | 6% | 6+/-2% | -- | |
| 淨值 | 28% | 35%[9] | 36% | 37+/-5% | +1% | |
| 政府好感 | 26% | 34%[9] | 33% | 32+/-4% | -2% | |
| 政府反感 | 7% | 5% | 10%[9] | 13+/-3% | +3% | |
| 淨值 | 19% | 29%[9] | 23% | 18+/-6% | -4% | |
| 美國 | 人民好感 | 34% | 39% | 48%[9] | 47+/-4% | -1% |
| 人民反感 | 11% | 15%[9] | 9%[9] | 12+/-3% | +3% | |
| 淨值 | 23% | 24% | 39%[9] | 35+/-6% | -4% | |
| 政府好感 | 14%[9] | 15% | 24%[9] | 33+/-4% | +9%[9] | |
| 政府反感 | 49%[9] | 56%[9] | 48%[9] | 36+/-4% | -13%[9] | |
| 淨值 | -35%[9] | -41% | -24%[9] | -2+/-7% | +22%[9] | |
[8] 數字採自五等量尺。
[9] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
[10] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，是由於加權方法改變。如果以舊有加權方法處理數據，則差異並未超過抽樣誤差。
[11] 該調查結果公佈時尚未包括手機樣本。上表結果已更新為固網樣本及手機樣本的合併統計數字，惟於判斷變化是否超過抽樣誤差時仍然使用首次公佈的數字計算。
最新調查顯示，香港巿民對各地人民的好感淨值，全部都高於對當地政府的好感淨值。對各地人民觀感方面，按好感淨值由高至低排列，分別是台灣、日本、澳洲、英國、香港、澳門、法國、美國和中國，當中只有對中國人民的好感淨值為負數。對各地政府觀感方面，按好感淨值由高至低排列，分別是台灣、日本、澳洲、英國、法國、美國、澳門、中國和香港，當中對美國、澳門、中國和香港政府的好感淨值為負數。
相比半年前，香港巿民對美國和日本政府的好感淨值顯著上升，而對澳門、英國和日本人民，以及香港、澳門、英國和中國政府的好感淨值則顯著下跌。
歷史紀錄方面，香港、中國和澳門政府的好感淨值創1997年有紀錄以來新低，澳洲和英國政府則分別創2000和2014年以來新低。相反，台灣和日本政府則創1997年有紀錄以來新高，美國政府亦創2009年以來新高。此外，香港巿民對中國人民的好感淨值創2013年以來新低，對法國人民的好感淨值則創2007年有紀錄以來新高。
須要說明，躋身是次調查範圍的國家和地區，先決條件是香港巿民的熟悉程度。調查範圍以外的國家或地區，在香港巿民心目中的好感程度可以很高或很低，但由於並非香港巿民最熟悉的國家或地區，所以不在調查之列。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的調查項目，上次調查日期為17-19/7/2019，而今次調查日期則為20-21/1/2020，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 21/1/20 | 武漢肺炎繼續急速擴散並傳入台灣 |
| 20/1/20 | 武漢肺炎於中國急速擴散 |
| 19/1/20 | 中環集會演變成警民衝突 |
| 16/1/20 | 中美簽署首輪經貿協議 |
| 14/1/20 | 政府推出十項民生政策 |
| 13/1/20 | 政府擬向海洋公園提供過百億資助 |
| 11/1/20 | 蔡英文勝出台灣總統選舉 |
| 9/1/20 | 專家指武漢肺炎由新型冠狀病毒引起 |
| 8/1/20 | 伊朗報復美國向伊拉克美軍基地發射導彈 |
| 7/1/20 | 政府將武漢肺炎列入須呈報疾病 |
| 4/1/20 | 駱惠寧被委任為中聯辦主任 |
| 3/1/20 | 武漢當局公布肺炎個案增至44宗 |
| 2/1/20 | 由武漢返港女子出現肺炎徵狀 |
| 1/1/20 | 民間人權陣線舉辦元旦大遊行 |
| 18/12/19 | 習近平到訪澳門 |
| 16/12/19 | 林鄭月娥到北京述職 |
| 28/11/19 | 美國總統特朗普簽署《香港人權與民主法案》 |
| 25/11/19 | 民主派取得大部分區議會議席 |
| 16/11/19 | 解放軍出動清理路障 |
| 14/11/19 | 習近平就香港局勢表態 |
| 6/11/19 | 國務院副總理韓正會見林鄭月娥 |
| 1/11/19 | 第十九屆四中全會新聞發布會舉行 |
| 22/10/19 | 台灣要求派員來港押解陳同佳到台灣受審 |
數據分析
在本港確診首宗武漢冠狀病毒個案前的調查顯示，香港巿民對各地人民的好感淨值，全部都高於對當地政府的好感淨值，當中對中國人民，及美國、澳門、中國和香港政府的好感淨值為負數。相比半年前，香港巿民對美國和日本政府的好感淨值顯著上升，而對澳門、英國和日本人民，以及香港、澳門、英國和中國政府的好感淨值則顯著下跌。
歷史紀錄方面，香港、中國和澳門政府的好感淨值創1997年有紀錄以來新低，澳洲和英國政府則分別創2000和2014年以來新低。相反，台灣和日本政府則創1997年有紀錄以來新高，美國政府亦創2009年以來新高。此外，香港巿民對中國人民的好感淨值創2013年以來新低，對法國人民的好感淨值則創2007年有紀錄以來新高。
Feb 04, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Press Release on February 4, 2020
POP releases findings on Hong Kong people’s feelings
towards different governments and people
Special Announcements
- The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
- The POP survey on Hong Kong people’s feelings towards different governments and peoples is the last survey before July 1, 2020, whether it will be continued or not will depend on public support.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 407 and 505 Hong Kong residents in a double stage random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in January. Our survey shows that before the first Wuhan Coronavirus case was confirmed in Hong Kong, Hong Kong people feel more positively about all other peoples than their governments. Among them, the net affinity for Chinese people and the governments of the United States, Macau, China and Hong Kong were negative. Compared to half a year ago, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the governments of the United States and Japan have increased significantly, while the net affinity towards the peoples of Macau, the United Kingdom and Japan, as well as the governments of Hong Kong, Macau, the United Kingdom and China have decreased significantly. Looking back at past records, the net affinity towards the governments of Hong Kong, China and Macau are at their lowest since the survey series began in 1997, while those of the governments of Australia and the United Kingdom are at their lowest since 2000 and 2014 respectively. On the contrary, those of the governments of Taiwan and Japan are at their highest since the survey series began in 1997, while that of the government of the United States is also at its highest since 2009. Besides, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the people of China is at their lowest since 2013, while that of the people of France is at its highest since the survey series began in 2007. The effective response rate of the evaluation stage survey is 71.2%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4% and that of net values is +/-7% at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Naming stage | Evaluation stage | ||
| Date of survey | : | 16-17/1/2020 | 20-21/1/2020 |
| Sample size[1] | : | 407 (including 204 landline and 203 mobile samples) |
505 (including 251 landline and 254 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate[2] | : | 65.5% | 71.2% |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers | |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above | |
| Sampling error[3] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and that of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% conf. level | |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. | |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 governments of countries or regions that they knew best apart from Hong Kong, Mainland, Taiwan and Macau. The top 5 nominees then entered the evaluation survey. In the evaluation survey, respondents were asked to rate their feeling towards the governments and peoples of Hong Kong, Mainland, Taiwan, Macau and the five countries or regions respectively. Hong Kong people’s feelings towards different governments and peoples are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 16-21/8/17 | 18-19/7/18 | 17-19/7/19 | 20-21/1/20 | ||
| Sample size | 763-811[7] | 502 | 592-633 | 505 | ||
| Response rate | 63.9% | 47.4% | 59.8% | 71.2% | ||
| Latest findings[4] | Findings | Findings | Findings | Finding & error | Latest change | |
| Hong Kong | People Positive | 46%[5] | 50% | 63%[5] | 57+/-4% | -6% |
| People Negative | 13% | 14% | 12% | 13+/-3% | +1% | |
| Net value | 34%[5] | 36% | 51%[5] | 44+/-6% | -6% | |
| Government Positive | 40%[5] | 38% | 26%[5] | 13+/-3% | -13%[5] | |
| Government Negative | 32%[5] | 34% | 58%[5] | 74+/-4% | +16%[5] | |
| Net value | 9%[5] | 4% | -32%[5] | -61+/-6% | -29%[5] | |
| China | People Positive | 32% | 31% | 30% | 30+/-4% | -- |
| People Negative | 27% | 29% | 34% | 37+/-4% | +3% | |
| Net value | 4% | 2% | -4% | -7+/-7% | -3% | |
| Government Positive | 32% | 31% | 25%[5] | 23+/-4% | -2% | |
| Government Negative | 35% | 39% | 51%[5] | 59+/-4% | +8%[5] | |
| Net value | -3% | -8% | -26%[5] | -36+/-7% | -10%[5] | |
| Taiwan | People Positive | 60%[5] | 67%[5] [6] | 76%[5] | 74+/-4% | -2% |
| People Negative | 4% | 5% | 2%[5] | 4+/-2% | +3%[5] | |
| Net value | 56% | 62% | 75%[5] | 69+/-5% | -5% | |
| Government Positive | 24%[5] | 34%[5] | 52%[5] | 55+/-4% | +3% | |
| Government Negative | 22%[5] | 25% | 19%[5] | 18+/-3% | -1% | |
| Net value | 2%[5] | 9% | 33%[5] | 37+/-7% | +4% | |
| Macau | People Positive | 44%[5] | 51%[5] | 62%[5] | 51+/-4% | -11%[5] |
| People Negative | 4%[5] | 4% | 3% | 9+/-3% | +7%[5] | |
| Net value | 40%[5] | 47%[5] | 60%[5] | 42+/-6% | -18%[5] | |
| Government Positive | 34% | 37% | 43%[5] | 31+/-4% | -12%[5] | |
| Government Negative | 17% | 22%[5] [6] | 23% | 35+/-4% | +12%[5] | |
| Net value | 18% | 15% | 20% | -4+/-7% | -24%[5] | |
[4] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level because of a change in the weighting method. If the previous weighting method was used, the difference would not have gone beyond the sampling error.
[7] The mobile sample was not included when survey results were released. The figures in the table above have been updated to reflect the results based on the combined landline and mobile sample. However, whether changes have gone beyond sampling errors is still determined based on the figures in the first release.
Hong Kong people’s feelings towards some other governments and peoples are summarized as follows, in descending order of net values towards the peoples:
| Date of survey | 16-21/8/17 | 18-19/7/18 | 17-19/7/19 | 20-21/1/20 | ||
| Sample size | 765-807[11] | 502 | 598-616 | 505 | ||
| Response rate | 63.9% | 47.4% | 59.8% | 71.2% | ||
| Latest findings[8] | Findings | Findings | Findings | Finding & error | Latest change | |
| Japan | People Positive | 59%[9] | 68%[9] | 76%[9] | 71+/-4% | -5% |
| People Negative | 7% | 6% | 3%[9] | 7+/-2% | +4%[9] | |
| Net value | 52% | 63%[9] | 73%[9] | 64+/-5% | -8%[9] | |
| Government Positive | 21% | 33%[9] | 39%[9] | 46+/-4% | +7%[9] | |
| Government Negative | 39% | 31%[9] | 27% | 17+/-3% | -9%[9] | |
| Net value | -18% | 2%[9] | 12%[9] | 29+/-7% | +16%[9] | |
| Australia | People Positive | 45% | 60%[9] | -- | 54+/-4% | -- |
| People Negative | 3% | 3% | -- | 4+/-2% | -- | |
| Net value | 42% | 57%[9] | -- | 50+/-5% | -- | |
| Government Positive | 39%[9] | 50%[9] | -- | 38+/-4% | -- | |
| Government Negative | 3% | 6%[9] | -- | 12+/-3% | -- | |
| Net value | 36%[9] | 43%[9] [10] | -- | 26+/-6% | -- | |
| United Kingdom | People Positive | 46% | 54%[9] | 63%[9] | 51+/-4% | -13%[9] |
| People Negative | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6+/-2% | +1% | |
| Net value | 42% | 48% | 58%[9] | 44+/-5% | -14%[9] | |
| Government Positive | 38%[9] | 46%[9] | 51% | 40+/-4% | -10%[9] | |
| Government Negative | 12%[9] | 14% | 17% | 21+/-4% | +4% | |
| Net value | 26%[9] | 32% | 34% | 19+/-7% | -14%[9] | |
| France | People Positive | 34% | 41%[9] | 42% | 43+/-4% | +1% |
| People Negative | 7% | 5% | 6% | 6+/-2% | -- | |
| Net value | 28% | 35%[9] | 36% | 37+/-5% | +1% | |
| Government Positive | 26% | 34%[9] | 33% | 32+/-4% | -2% | |
| Government Negative | 7% | 5% | 10%[9] | 13+/-3% | +3% | |
| Net value | 19% | 29%[9] | 23% | 18+/-6% | -4% | |
| United States | People Positive | 34% | 39% | 48%[9] | 47+/-4% | -1% |
| People Negative | 11% | 15%[9] | 9%[9] | 12+/-3% | +3% | |
| Net value | 23% | 24% | 39%[9] | 35+/-6% | -4% | |
| Government Positive | 14%[9] | 15% | 24%[9] | 33+/-4% | +9%[9] | |
| Government Negative | 49%[9] | 56%[9] | 48%[9] | 36+/-4% | -13%[9] | |
| Net value | -35%[9] | -41% | -24%[9] | -2+/-7% | +22%[9] | |
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[9] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[10] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level because of a change in the weighting method. If the previous weighting method was used, the difference would not have gone beyond the sampling error.
[11] The mobile sample was not included when survey results were released. The figures in the table above have been updated to reflect the results based on the combined landline and mobile sample. However, whether changes have gone beyond sampling errors is still determined based on the figures in the first release.
Our latest survey shows that, in terms of net affinity, Hong Kong people feel more positively about all other peoples than their governments. As regards people’s feeling towards different peoples, from high to low net affinity, the order goes: Taiwan, Japan, Australia, the United Kingdom, Hong Kong, Macau, France, the United States and China. Among them, only the net affinity for Chinese people was negative. Regarding people’s feeling towards different governments, from high to low net affinity, the order goes: Taiwan, Japan, Australia, the United Kingdom, France, the United States, Macau, China and Hong Kong. Among them, the net affinity for the governments of the United States, Macau, China and Hong Kong were negative.
Compared to half a year ago, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the governments of the United States and Japan have increased significantly, while the net affinity towards the peoples of Macau, the United Kingdom and Japan, as well as the governments of Hong Kong, Macau, the United Kingdom and China have decreased significantly.
Looking back at past records, the net affinity towards the governments of Hong Kong, China and Macau are at their lowest since the survey series began in 1997, while those of the governments of Australia and the United Kingdom are at their lowest since 2000 and 2014 respectively. On the contrary, those of the governments of Taiwan and Japan are at their highest since the survey series began in 1997, while that of the government of the United States is also at its highest since 2009. Besides, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the people of China is at their lowest since 2013, while that of the people of France is at its highest since the survey series began in 2007.
It should be noted, however, that our survey only covers regions and countries best known to Hong Kong people. Hong Kong people may well like or dislike other places much more, but because they are not the most well-known places, they do not appear on the list by design.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 17 to 19 July, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 20 to 21 January, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 21/1/20 | Wuhan pneumonia continues to spread rapidly and into Taiwan. |
| 20/1/20 | Wuhan pneumonia spreads rapidly in China. |
| 19/1/20 | Rally at Central turns into a conflict between protestors and the police. |
| 16/1/20 | China and the US sign phase one of the trade deal. |
| 14/1/20 | The government announces ten initiatives to benefit livelihoods of the people. |
| 13/1/20 | The government plans to provide over $10 billion to Ocean Park as a subsidy. |
| 11/1/20 | Tsai Ing-wen wins Taiwan’s presidential election. |
| 9/1/20 | Experts say Wuhan pneumonia is caused by a new coronavirus. |
| 8/1/20 | Iran fires missiles at US military bases in Iraq as revenge. |
| 7/1/20 | The government adds Wuhan pneumonia to the list of notifiable diseases. |
| 4/1/20 | Luo Huining is appointed the Director of the Liaison Office. |
| 3/1/20 | Wuhan authorities announce an increase of pneumonia cases to 44. |
| 2/1/20 | A woman back from Wuhan has symptoms of pneumonia. |
| 1/1/20 | The Civil Human Rights Front organizes the New Year Rally. |
| 18/12/19 | Xi Jinping visits Macau. |
| 16/12/19 | Carrie Lam pays a duty visit to Beijing. |
| 28/11/19 | US President Donald Trump signs the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. |
| 25/11/19 | The pro-democracy camp wins a majority of seats in the District Councils. |
| 16/11/19 | The People’s Liberation Army clears roadblocks. |
| 14/11/19 | Xi Jinping expresses his views on Hong Kong. |
| 6/11/19 | Vice Premier of the State Council Han Zheng meets with Carrie Lam. |
| 1/11/19 | The press conference on the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Communist Party of China Central Committee is held. |
| 22/10/19 | Taiwan requests to send officers to Hong Kong to escort Chan Tong-kai to Taiwan for trial. |
Data Analysis
Our survey before the first Wuhan Coronavirus case was confirmed in Hong Kong shows that Hong Kong people feel more positively about all other peoples than their governments. Among them, the net affinity for Chinese people and the governments of the United States, Macau, China and Hong Kong were negative. Compared to half a year ago, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the governments of the United States and Japan have increased significantly, while the net affinity towards the peoples of Macau, the United Kingdom and Japan, as well as the governments of Hong Kong, Macau, the United Kingdom and China have decreased significantly.
Looking back at past records, the net affinity towards the governments of Hong Kong, China and Macau are at their lowest since the survey series began in 1997, while those of the governments of Australia and the United Kingdom are at their lowest since 2000 and 2014 respectively. On the contrary, those of the governments of Taiwan and Japan are at their highest since the survey series began in 1997, while that of the government of the United States is also at its highest since 2009. Besides, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the people of China is at their lowest since 2013, while that of the people of France is at its highest since the survey series began in 2007.
