2020年5月8日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
2020年5月8日 新聞公報
民研計劃發放最新社會及自由指標
特別宣佈
- 香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
- 香港民研今日發放的社會及自由指標，是本年7月1日前發放的最後一次，未來會否繼續，要視乎公眾是否支持。
公報簡要
民研計劃於四月中由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,005名香港居民。調查顯示，各項社會及自由指標持續低迷。首先，五項核心指標中，「民主」、「法治」和「安定」得分繼續低於5分，與去年9月比較，「自由」和「繁榮」指標錄得顯著跌幅，前者再創1997年有記錄以來新低，後者則創2003年7月以來新低，而「安定」指標則顯著回升。七項非核心指標中，「廉潔」、「平等」和「公平」得分低於5分，「公平」、「治安」和「文明」指標錄得顯著升幅，「效率」指標則錄得顯著跌幅。當中，「效率」和「廉潔」指標同創1997年有記錄以來新低。十項自由次指標中，「新聞自由」、「結社自由」、「罷工自由」和「遊行示威自由」得分低於5分，除「出入境自由」和「結社自由」外的其餘八項次指標均錄得顯著跌幅，全部十項次指標均創1997年有記錄以來新低。法治方面，「法庭公正程度」和「司法制度公平程度」均低於5分，前者錄得顯著跌幅，並創1997年有記錄以來新低。終審法院首席法官馬道立的最新支持度評分則有57.3分，與上次調查結果相若。調查的實效回應比率為64.5%。在95%置信水平下，調查的評分誤差不超過+/-2.4。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 14-17/4/2020 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,005 (包括505個固網及500個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率[2] | ： | 64.5% |
| 抽樣誤差[3] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，評分誤差不超過+/-2.4 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一八年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2018年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 民研計劃在2017年9月前以「整體回應比率」彙報樣本資料，2017年9月開始則以「實效回應比率」彙報。2018年7月，民研計劃再調整實效回應比率的計算方法，因此改變前後的回應比率不能直接比較。
[3] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
以下是五項核心社會指標的最新數字：
| 調查日期 | 4-9/5/18 | 22-24/10/18[4] | 6-9/5/19 | 16-19/9/19 | 14-17/4/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目[5] | 1,017 | 523-554 | 553-615 | 587-669 | 627-654 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 59.5% | 63.4% | 63.2% | 69.5% | 64.5% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 自由指標 | 7.11[6] | 6.57[6] | 6.60 | 6.00[6] | 5.58+/-0.23 | -0.43[6] |
| 繁榮指標 | 7.21[6] | 6.61[6] | 6.55 | 5.87[6] | 5.45+/-0.19 | -0.42[6] |
| 民主指標 | 5.65 | 5.10[6] | 5.42[6] | 4.55[6] | 4.61+/-0.25 | +0.06 |
| 法治指標 | 6.74[6] | 6.21[6] | 6.20 | 4.41[6] | 4.45+/-0.23 | +0.05 |
| 安定指標 | 6.59 | 6.61 | 6.29[6] | 4.05[6] | 4.44+/-0.22 | +0.38[6] |
[4] 2018年10月至12月，民研計劃為不同量尺描述程度的字眼進行測試，表中數字為綜合結果。詳情請參閱網站。
[5] 民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字，2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。
[6] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是七項非核心社會指標的最新數字：
| 調查日期 | 15-18/1/18 | 4-9/5/18 | 6-9/5/19 | 16-19/9/19 | 14-17/4/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 587-649 | 1,017 | 526-642 | 587-716 | 627-663 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 63.6% | 59.5% | 63.2% | 69.5% | 64.5% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 文明指標 | 6.83[7] | 6.84 | 6.78 | 5.68[7] | 6.00+/-0.20 | +0.32[7] |
| 社會福利指標 | 6.12[7] | 6.24 | 5.79[7] | 5.55 | 5.56+/-0.22 | +0.01 |
| 效率指標 | 6.72 | 6.66 | 6.36[7] | 5.88[7] | 5.25+/-0.21 | -0.63[7] |
| 治安指標 | 7.52 | 7.47 | 7.02[7] | 4.55[7] | 5.13+/-0.22 | +0.58[7] |
| 廉潔指標 | 6.30[7] | 6.59[7] | 6.43 | 5.12[7] | 4.98+/-0.24 | -0.15 |
| 平等指標 | 5.87[7] | 5.82 | 5.69 | 4.71[7] | 4.87+/-0.21 | +0.16 |
| 公平指標 | 5.47[7] | 5.77[7] | 5.47[7] | 4.20[7] | 4.79+/-0.22 | +0.59[7] |
[7] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是十項自由次指標的最新數字：
| 調查日期 | 15-18/1/18 | 4-9/5/18 | 6-9/5/19 | 16-19/9/19 | 14-17/4/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 589-673 | 1,017 | 525-651 | 609-700 | 579-643 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 63.6% | 59.5% | 63.2% | 69.5% | 64.5% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 自由指標 (重複顯示) | 6.72[8] | 7.11[8] | 6.60 | 6.00[8] | 5.58+/-0.23 | -0.43[8] |
| 信仰自由 | 8.55 | 8.51 | 8.12[8] | 7.79[8] | 7.24+/-0.22 | -0.55[8] |
| 出入境自由 | 8.00[8] | 8.14 | 7.77[8] | 7.14[8] | 7.02+/-0.22 | -0.12 |
| 文藝創作自由 | 6.99[8] | 7.10 | 6.93 | 6.54[8] | 5.63+/-0.25 | -0.91[8] |
| 學術研究自由 | 6.96[8] | 7.06 | 6.78 | 6.46[8] | 5.59+/-0.24 | -0.87[8] |
| 言論自由 | 6.65[8] | 6.80 | 6.20[8] | 5.85[8] | 5.24+/-0.27 | -0.61[8] |
| 出版自由 | 6.24[8] | 6.40 | 5.76[8] | 5.81 | 5.10+/-0.26 | -0.71[8] |
| 新聞自由 | 6.21[8] | 6.43[8] | 5.81[8] | 5.72 | 4.94+/-0.27 | -0.79[8] |
| 結社自由 | 6.47[8] | 6.42 | 5.38[8] | 5.13 | 4.88+/-0.28 | -0.26 |
| 罷工自由 | 6.31[8] | 6.25 | 5.86[8] | 5.04[8] | 4.67+/-0.28 | -0.37[8] |
| 遊行示威自由 | 6.54 | 6.79[8] | 6.15[8] | 4.68[8] | 4.13+/-0.29 | -0.55[8] |
[8] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是兩項法治次指標及終審法院首席法官評分的最新數字：
| 調查日期 | 15-18/1/18 | 4-9/5/18 | 6-9/5/19 | 16-19/9/19 | 14-17/4/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 629-726 | 1,017 | 527-688 | 642-690 | 641-658 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 63.6% | 59.5% | 63.2% | 69.5% | 64.5% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 法治指標 (重複顯示) | 6.29[9] | 6.74[9] | 6.20 | 4.41[9] | 4.45+/-0.23 | +0.05 |
| 法庭公正程度 | 6.54[9] | 6.84[9] | 6.20[9] | 5.52[9] | 4.60+/-0.23 | -0.93[9] |
| 司法制度公平程度 | 6.05[9] | 6.35[9] | 5.63[9] | 4.37[9] | 4.41+/-0.24 | +0.05 |
| 馬道立支持度評分 | 65.1[9] | 69.6[9] | 62.7[9] | 57.1[9] | 57.3+/-2.4 | +0.2 |
[9] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，各項社會及自由指標持續低迷。核心指標方面，以0至10分評價，市民對「自由」和「繁榮」的評分較高，分別得5.58和5.45分；「民主」、「法治」和「安定」則繼續低於5分，分別得4.61、4.45和4.44分。相比去年九月中的調查，「自由」和「繁榮」指標錄得顯著跌幅，前者再創1997年有記錄以來新低，後者則創2003年7月以來新低，而「安定」指標則錄得顯著升幅。
非核心指標方面，獲較高得分的有「文明」、「社會福利」、「效率」和「治安」，分別得6.00、5.56、5.25和5.13分；「廉潔」、「平等」和「公平」則低於5分，分別得4.98、4.87和4.79分。相比上次調查，「公平」、「治安」和「文明」指標錄得顯著升幅，「效率」指標則錄得顯著跌幅。當中，「效率」和「廉潔」指標同創1997年有記錄以來新低。
自由次指標方面，獲較高得分的有「信仰自由」和「出入境自由」，分別得7.24和7.02分；其次為「文藝創作自由」、「學術研究自由」、「言論自由」和「出版自由」，分別得5.63、5.59、5.24和5.10分；「新聞自由」、「結社自由」、「罷工自由」和「遊行示威自由」則分別只得4.94、4.88、4.67和4.13分。相比上次調查，除「出入境自由」和「結社自由」外的其餘八項次指標均錄得顯著跌幅，全部十項次指標均創1997年有記錄以來新低。
至於兩項法治次指標，法庭公正程度得4.60分，司法制度公平程度則得4.41分，前者錄得顯著跌幅，並創1997年有記錄以來新低。而終審法院首席法官馬道立的最新支持度評分，以0至100分評價，則有57.3分，與上次調查結果相若。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事紀錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的調查項目，上次調查日期為16-19/9/2019，而今次調查日期則為14-17/4/2020，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 15/4/20 | 中聯辦主任駱惠寧指香港要維護國家安全 |
| 14/4/20 | 林鄭月娥指港澳辦及中聯辦沒有干預香港事務 |
| 13/4/20 | 港澳辦及中聯辦批評立法會議員郭榮鏗 |
| 9/4/20 | 政府推出800億「保就業」措施 |
| 8/4/20 | 政府宣布逾1,300億紓困措施抗疫 |
| 1/4/20 | 政府宣布麻雀館、卡拉OK等娛樂場所須暫停營業 |
| 27/3/20 | 政府宣布禁4人以上公眾聚會 |
| 23/3/20 | 政府宣布本地酒吧及食肆禁賣酒 |
| 17/3/20 | 政府宣布所有海外國家來港人士需隔離14日 |
| 8/3/20 | 警方深夜拘捕17人涉嫌製作爆炸品 |
| 28/2/20 | 警方拘捕黎智英、李卓人及楊森 |
| 6/2/20 | 市民搶購生活必需品 |
| 5/2/20 | 政府宣布經中國大陸來港人士將需隔離14日 |
| 3/2/20 | 政府宣布進一步關閉關口 |
| 1/2/20 | 醫管局員工陣線通過罷工 |
| 31/1/20 | 政府拒絕全面封關 |
| 29/1/20 | 口罩供應短缺並出現搶購潮 |
| 28/1/20 | 政府宣布局部封關 |
| 19/1/20 | 中環集會演變成警民衝突 |
| 1/1/20 | 民間人權陣線舉辦元旦大遊行 |
| 31/12/19 | 除夕夜多區出現示威抗爭活動 |
| 28/12/19 | 來自中國大陸的旅行團數量大跌 |
| 25/12/19 | 聖誕節期間多區出現示威抗爭活動 |
| 11/12/19 | 監警會國際專家小組全體退出 |
| 9/12/19 | 調查指零售業將出現裁員及結業潮 |
| 8/12/19 | 民間人權陣線指約80萬人參與國際人權日遊行 |
| 2/12/19 | 財政司司長陳茂波預計本財政年度將錄得赤字 |
| 1/12/19 | 示威者於尖沙咀遊行 |
| 25/11/19 | 民主派取得大部分區議會議席 |
| 19/11/19 | 《禁蒙面法》被裁定違憲 |
| 17/11/19 | 警察圍堵理工大學並與示威者激烈衝突 |
| 13/11/19 | 衝突持續，教育局宣布將停課 |
| 12/11/19 | 中文大學出現激烈警民衝突 |
| 11/11/19 | 交通警於西灣河開三槍擊中示威者 |
| 10/11/19 | 全港多區出現示威及警民衝突 |
| 8/11/19 | 將軍澳墮樓科大學生不治 |
| 6/11/19 | 何君堯被持刀襲擊 |
| 2/11/19 | 香港島發生示威衝突 |
| 29/10/19 | 黃之鋒被裁定區議會選舉提名無效 |
| 28/10/19 | 記者於警方記者會抗議警察對記者使用暴力 |
| 25/10/19 | 高等法院頒發臨時禁制令禁止非法發布警員及其家屬的個人資料 |
| 20/10/19 | 九龍區出現示威及警民衝突 |
| 16/10/19 | 林鄭月娥發表2019年施政報告 |
| 13/10/19 | 全港多區出現示威及警民衝突 |
| 5/10/19 | 反《蒙面法》遊行演變成多區警民衝突 |
| 4/10/19 | 政府正式引用《緊急法》訂立《禁蒙面法》 |
| 1/10/19 | 全港多區出現示威及警民衝突，警方在荃灣使用實彈射傷一名示威者 |
| 29/9/19 | 反極權大遊行演變成多區警民衝突 |
| 28/9/19 | 民間人權陣線於添馬公園舉行集會，紀念雨傘運動五周年 |
| 22/9/19 | 沙田及全港多區出現示威及警民衝突 |
| 21/9/19 | 屯門及元朗出現示威及警民衝突 |
| 18/9/19 | 賽馬會以安全為由取消晚間賽事 |
數據分析
最新調查顯示，各項社會及自由指標持續低迷。首先，五項核心指標中，「民主」、「法治」和「安定」繼續得分低於5分，與去年9月比較，「自由」和「繁榮」指標錄得顯著跌幅，前者再創1997年有記錄以來新低，後者則創2003年7月以來新低，而「安定」指標則顯著回升。
七項非核心指標中，「廉潔」、「平等」和「公平」得分低於5分，「公平」、「治安」和「文明」指標錄得顯著升幅，「效率」指標則錄得顯著跌幅。當中，「效率」和「廉潔」指標同創1997年有記錄以來新低。
十項自由次指標中，「新聞自由」、「結社自由」、「罷工自由」和「遊行示威自由」得分低於5分，除「出入境自由」和「結社自由」外的其餘八項次指標均錄得顯著跌幅，全部十項次指標均創1997年有記錄以來新低。
法治方面，「法庭公正程度」和「司法制度公平程度」均低於5分，前者錄得顯著跌幅，並創1997年有記錄以來新低。終審法院首席法官馬道立的最新支持度評分則有57.3分，與上次調查結果相若。
May 8, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Press Release on May 8, 2020
POP releases the latest social and freedom indicators
Special Announcements
- The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
- The survey on the social and freedom indicators released today by POP is the last of its kind before July 1, 2020. Whether it will be continued or not will depend on public support.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,005 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in mid-April. Our survey shows that various social and freedom indicators continue to stay low. First of all, among the five core indicators, ratings of “democracy”, “rule of law” and “stability” continue to score lower than 5 marks. Ratings of “freedom” and “prosperity” have dropped significantly when compared to figures of last September, with the former registering all-time low since records began in 1997 and the latter registering a record low since July 2003, while the rating of “stability” has significantly rebounded. As for the seven non-core social indicators, ratings of “corruption-free practices”, “equality” and “fairness” score lower than 5 marks. Ratings of “fairness”, “public order” and “civilization” have increased significantly, while that of “efficiency” has dropped significantly. Ratings of “efficiency” and “corruption-free practices” have both registered all-time lows since records began in 1997. As for the ten freedom sub-indicators, freedom of “press”, “association”, “freedom to strike” and “procession and demonstration” all score lower than 5 marks. Eight sub-indicators (except freedom of “entering or leaving Hong Kong” and “association”) have dropped significantly. All ten sub-indicators have registered all-time lows since records began in 1997. In the area of rule of law sub-indicators, both “impartiality of the courts” and “fairness of the judicial system” score lower than 5 marks. The former has dropped significantly and registered all-time low since records began in 1997. The latest support rating of Chief Justice Geoffrey Ma is 57.3, which is similar with the previous survey. The effective response rate of the survey is 64.5%. The maximum sampling error of ratings is +/-2.4 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 14-17/4/2020 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,005 (including 505 landline and 500 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate[2] | : | 64.5% |
| Sampling error[3] | : | Sampling error of ratings not more than +/-2.4 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Herewith the latest figures of the five core social indicators:
| Date of survey | 4-9/5/18 | 22-24/10/18[4] | 6-9/5/19 | 16-19/9/19 | 14-17/4/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size[5] | 1,017 | 523-554 | 553-615 | 587-669 | 627-654 | -- |
| Response rate | 59.5% | 63.4% | 63.2% | 69.5% | 64.5% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Degree of freedom | 7.11[6] | 6.57[6] | 6.60 | 6.00[6] | 5.58+/-0.23 | -0.43[6] |
| Degree of prosperity | 7.21[6] | 6.61[6] | 6.55 | 5.87[6] | 5.45+/-0.19 | -0.42[6] |
| Degree of democracy | 5.65 | 5.10[6] | 5.42[6] | 4.55[6] | 4.61+/-0.25 | +0.06 |
| Compliance with the rule of law | 6.74[6] | 6.21[6] | 6.20 | 4.41[6] | 4.45+/-0.23 | +0.05 |
| Degree of stability | 6.59 | 6.61 | 6.29[6] | 4.05[6] | 4.44+/-0.22 | +0.38[6] |
[4] From October to December 2018, POP conducted tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results. Please visit our website for details.
[5] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Herewith the latest figures of the seven non-core social indicators:
| Date of survey | 15-18/1/18 | 4-9/5/18 | 6-9/5/19 | 16-19/9/19 | 14-17/4/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 587-649 | 1,017 | 526-642 | 587-716 | 627-663 | -- |
| Response rate | 63.6% | 59.5% | 63.2% | 69.5% | 64.5% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Degree of civilization | 6.83[7] | 6.84 | 6.78 | 5.68[7] | 6.00+/-0.20 | +0.32[7] |
| Degree of social welfare sufficiency | 6.12[7] | 6.24 | 5.79[7] | 5.55 | 5.56+/-0.22 | +0.01 |
| Degree of efficiency | 6.72 | 6.66 | 6.36[7] | 5.88[7] | 5.25+/-0.21 | -0.63[7] |
| Degree of public order | 7.52 | 7.47 | 7.02[7] | 4.55[7] | 5.13+/-0.22 | +0.58[7] |
| Degree of corruption-free practices | 6.30[7] | 6.59[7] | 6.43 | 5.12[7] | 4.98+/-0.24 | -0.15 |
| Degree of equality | 5.87[7] | 5.82 | 5.69 | 4.71[7] | 4.87+/-0.21 | +0.16 |
| Degree of fairness | 5.47[7] | 5.77[7] | 5.47[7] | 4.20[7] | 4.79+/-0.22 | +0.59[7] |
[7] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Herewith the latest figures of the ten freedom sub-indicators:
| Date of survey | 15-18/1/18 | 4-9/5/18 | 6-9/5/19 | 16-19/9/19 | 14-17/4/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 589-673 | 1,017 | 525-651 | 609-700 | 579-643 | -- |
| Response rate | 63.6% | 59.5% | 63.2% | 69.5% | 64.5% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Degree of freedom (repeated listing) | 6.72[8] | 7.11[8] | 6.60 | 6.00[8] | 5.58+/-0.23 | -0.43[8] |
| Freedom of religious belief | 8.55 | 8.51 | 8.12[8] | 7.79[8] | 7.24+/-0.22 | -0.55[8] |
| Freedom to enter or leave Hong Kong | 8.00[8] | 8.14 | 7.77[8] | 7.14[8] | 7.02+/-0.22 | -0.12 |
| Freedom to engage in artistic and literary creation |
6.99[8] | 7.10 | 6.93 | 6.54[8] | 5.63+/-0.25 | -0.91[8] |
| Freedom to engage in academic research |
6.96[8] | 7.06 | 6.78 | 6.46[8] | 5.59+/-0.24 | -0.87[8] |
| Freedom of speech | 6.65[8] | 6.80 | 6.20[8] | 5.85[8] | 5.24+/-0.27 | -0.61[8] |
| Freedom of publication | 6.24[8] | 6.40 | 5.76[8] | 5.81 | 5.10+/-0.26 | -0.71[8] |
| Freedom of press | 6.21[8] | 6.43[8] | 5.81[8] | 5.72 | 4.94+/-0.27 | -0.79[8] |
| Freedom of association | 6.47[8] | 6.42 | 5.38[8] | 5.13 | 4.88+/-0.28 | -0.26 |
| Freedom to strike | 6.31[8] | 6.25 | 5.86[8] | 5.04[8] | 4.67+/-0.28 | -0.37[8] |
| Freedom of procession and demonstration | 6.54 | 6.79[8] | 6.15[8] | 4.68[8] | 4.13+/-0.29 | -0.55[8] |
[8] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Herewith the latest figures of the two rule of law sub-indicators and the rating of the Chief Justice:
| Date of survey | 15-18/1/18 | 4-9/5/18 | 6-9/5/19 | 16-19/9/19 | 14-17/4/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 629-726 | 1,017 | 527-688 | 642-690 | 641-658 | -- |
| Response rate | 63.6% | 59.5% | 63.2% | 69.5% | 64.5% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Compliance with the rule of law (repeated listing) | 6.29[9] | 6.74[9] | 6.20 | 4.41[9] | 4.45+/-0.23 | +0.05 |
| Impartiality of the courts | 6.54[9] | 6.84[9] | 6.20[9] | 5.52[9] | 4.60+/-0.23 | -0.93[9] |
| Fairness of the judicial system | 6.05[9] | 6.35[9] | 5.63[9] | 4.37[9] | 4.41+/-0.24 | +0.05 |
| Support rating of Geoffrey Ma | 65.1[9] | 69.6[9] | 62.7[9] | 57.1[9] | 57.3+/-2.4 | +0.2 |
[9] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
The latest survey shows that various social and freedom indicators continue to stay low. Regarding the core indicators, on a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on “freedom” and “prosperity” are relatively higher, with 5.58 and 5.45 marks respectively. Ratings of “democracy”, “rule of law” and “stability” score lower than 5 marks, with 4.61, 4.45 and 4.44 respectively. Compared with the survey in mid-September last year, ratings of “freedom” and “prosperity” have dropped significantly, with the former registering all-time low since records began in 1997 and the latter registering a record low since July 2003, while the rating of “stability” has significantly rebounded.
As for the non-core indicators, “civilization”, “social welfare sufficiency”, “efficiency” and “public order” got higher ratings, with 6.00, 5.56, 5.25 and 5.13 marks respectively. Ratings of “corruption-free practices”, “equality” and “fairness” score lower than 5 marks, with 4.98, 4.87 and 4.79 respectively. Compared with the previous survey, ratings of “fairness”, “public order” and “civilization” have increased significantly, while that of “efficiency” has dropped significantly. Ratings of “efficiency” and “corruption-free practices” have both registered all-time lows since records began in 1997.
As for the freedom sub-indicators, freedoms of “religious belief” and “entering or leaving Hong Kong” got higher ratings, with 7.24 and 7.02 marks respectively, followed by freedom of “artistic and literary creation”, “academic research”, “speech” and “publication”, with 5.63, 5.59, 5.24 and 5.10 marks respectively, while freedom of “press”, “association”, “freedom to strike” and “procession and demonstration” only score 4.94, 4.88, 4.67 and 4.13 marks respectively. Compared with the previous survey, eight sub-indicators (except freedom of “entering or leaving Hong Kong” and “association”) have dropped significantly. All ten sub-indicators have registered all-time lows since records began in 1997.
As for the two rule of law sub-indicators, “impartiality of the courts” got 4.60 marks, while “fairness of the judicial system” got 4.41 marks. The former has dropped significantly and registered all-time low since records began in 1997. As for Chief Justice Geoffrey Ma, his latest support rating is 57.3 on a scale of 0 to 100, which is similar with the previous survey.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 16 to 19 September, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 14 to 17 April, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 15/4/20 | Director of the Liaison Office Luo Huining says Hong Kong needs to safeguard national security. |
| 14/4/20 | Carrie Lam claims the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and the Liaison Office did not interfere in Hong Kong affairs. |
| 13/4/20 | The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and the Liaison Office criticize Legislative Councillor Dennis Kwok. |
| 9/4/20 | The government launches a subsidy scheme involving $80 billion to keep workers in employment. |
| 8/4/20 | The government announces relief measures involving over $130 billion to combat the pandemic. |
| 1/4/20 | The government orders karaoke lounges, mahjong parlors and nightclubs to close. |
| 27/3/20 | The government announces the ban on gathering with more than 4 people. |
| 23/3/20 | The government bans bars and restaurants from selling alcohol. |
| 17/3/20 | The government announces people entering Hong Kong from any foreign country will be put in a 14-day quarantine. |
| 8/3/20 | Police arrests during midnight 17 people who are suspected of making explosives. |
| 28/2/20 | Police arrests Jimmy Lai, Lee Cheuk-yan and Yeung Sum. |
| 6/2/20 | People rush to purchase daily necessities. |
| 5/2/20 | The government announces people entering Hong Kong from mainland China will be put in a 14-day quarantine. |
| 3/2/20 | The government announces further closure of borders. |
| 1/2/20 | Hospital Authority Employees Alliance members vote to go on strike. |
| 31/1/20 | The government refuses full border closure. |
| 29/1/20 | People rush to purchase masks, which are in short supply. |
| 28/1/20 | The government announces partial border closure. |
| 19/1/20 | Rally at Central turns into a conflict between protestors and the police. |
| 1/1/20 | The Civil Human Rights Front organizes the New Year Rally. |
| 31/12/19 | Protesting activities occur in multiple districts on New Year’s Eve. |
| 28/12/19 | Number of tours for tourists from mainland China has plunged. |
| 25/12/19 | Protesting activities occur in multiple districts during Christmas. |
| 11/12/19 | All members of the Independent Police Complaints Council International Expert Panel quit. |
| 9/12/19 | Survey suggests that a wave of lay-offs and company closures in the retail sector is coming. |
| 8/12/19 | The Civil Human Rights Front announces that around eight hundred thousand people participated in the International Human Rights Day protest. |
| 2/12/19 | Financial Secretary Paul Chan forecasts a budget deficit in this fiscal year. |
| 1/12/19 | Protesters march along Tsim Sha Tsui. |
| 25/11/19 | The pro-democracy camp wins a majority of seats in the District Councils. |
| 19/11/19 | The anti-mask law is ruled to be unconstitutional. |
| 17/11/19 | The police surround the Hong Kong Polytechnic University and clash violently with protesters. |
| 13/11/19 | The Education Bureau announces that classes will be suspended as conflicts continue. |
| 12/11/19 | Violent conflicts between protestors and the police occur in the Chinese University of Hong Kong. |
| 11/11/19 | A traffic policeman fires three live rounds at a protester. |
| 10/11/19 | Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in multiple districts in Hong Kong. |
| 8/11/19 | HKUST student who fell from height in Tseung Kwan O passes away. |
| 6/11/19 | Junius Ho is attacked with a knife. |
| 2/11/19 | Protests and conflicts break out on Hong Kong Island. |
| 29/10/19 | Nomination of Joshua Wong for District Council election is ruled to be invalid. |
| 28/10/19 | Journalists protest against police violence targeting journalists during police press conference. |
| 25/10/19 | The High Court grants an interim injunction to restrain unlawful publishing of the personal data of police officers and their family members. |
| 20/10/19 | Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in Kowloon district. |
| 16/10/19 | Carrie Lam delivers the 2019 Policy Address. |
| 13/10/19 | Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in multiple districts in Hong Kong. |
| 5/10/19 | Anti-mask law rally turns into conflicts between protestors and the police in multiple districts in Hong Kong. |
| 4/10/19 | The government officially enacts anti-mask law by invoking emergency law. |
| 1/10/19 | Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in multiple districts in Hong Kong, the police shoots a protester with a live bullet in Tsuen Wan. |
| 29/9/19 | Anti-totalitarianism rally turns into conflicts between protestors and the police in multiple districts in Hong Kong. |
| 28/9/19 | The Civil Human Rights Front organizes a rally at Tamar Park to commemorate 5th anniversary of Umbrella Movement. |
| 22/9/19 | Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in Shatin and multiple districts in Hong Kong. |
| 21/9/19 | Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in Tuen Mun and Yuen Long. |
| 18/9/19 | The Jockey Club cancels night race due to safety concerns. |
Data Analysis
The latest survey shows that various social and freedom indicators continue to stay low. First of all, among the five core indicators, ratings of “democracy”, “rule of law” and “stability” continue to score lower than 5 marks. Ratings of “freedom” and “prosperity” have dropped significantly when compared to figures of last September, with the former registering all-time low since records began in 1997 and the latter registering a record low since July 2003, while the rating of “stability” has significantly rebounded.
As for the seven non-core social indicators, ratings of “corruption-free practices”, “equality” and “fairness” score lower than 5 marks. Ratings of “fairness”, “public order” and “civilization” have increased significantly, while that of “efficiency” has dropped significantly. Ratings of “efficiency” and “corruption-free practices” have both registered all-time lows since records began in 1997.
As for the ten freedom sub-indicators, freedom of “press”, “association”, “freedom to strike” and “procession and demonstration” all score lower than 5 marks. Eight sub-indicators (except freedom of “entering or leaving Hong Kong” and “association”) have dropped significantly. All ten sub-indicators have registered all-time lows since records began in 1997.
In the area of rule of law sub-indicators, both “impartiality of the courts” and “fairness of the judicial system” score lower than 5 marks. The former has dropped significantly and registered all-time low since records began in 1997. The latest support rating of Chief Justice Geoffrey Ma is 57.3, which is similar with the previous survey.
