2020年6月30日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
2020年6月30日 新聞公報
民研計劃發放特區成立週年調查結果
特別宣佈
- 香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
- 香港民研今年進行的特區成立週年調查，可能是最後一次，未來會否繼續，要視乎公眾是否支持。
公報簡要
民研計劃於六月中由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,002名香港居民。調查顯示，臨近特區成立二十三週年，香港巿民對中國國民身份的自豪感比去年同期顯著回升7個百分點至34%，而沒有感到自豪的比率則大幅回落8個百分點至62%。中央政府對港政策方面，市民的評價同樣錄得顯著回升，最新正面評價佔28個百分比，負面評價為50個百分比，淨值為負21個百分點。調查的實效回應比率為54.1%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-3%，淨值誤差不超過+/-5%，評分誤差不超過+/-0.1。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 15-18/6/2020 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,002 (包括497個固網及505個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率[2] | ： | 54.1% |
| 抽樣誤差[3] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-3%，淨值誤差不超過+/-5%，評分誤差不超過+/-0.1 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一九年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2019年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 民研計劃在2017年9月前以「整體回應比率」彙報樣本資料，2017年9月開始則以「實效回應比率」彙報。2018年7月，民研計劃再調整實效回應比率的計算方法，因此改變前後的回應比率不能直接比較。
[3] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
有關特區成立週年調查的結果如下：
| 調查日期 | 20-23/6/16 | 19-22/6/17 | 14-21/6/18 | 17-20/6/19 | 15-18/6/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,006 | 1,007 | 1,000 | 1,015 | 1,002 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 69.5% | 71.2% | 59.6% | 58.7% | 54.1% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 因成為中國國民而感到自豪的比率 | 31%[5] | 34% | 38%[5] | 27%[5] | 34+/-3% | +7%[5] |
| 沒有感到自豪的比率 | 65%[5] | 62% | 57%[5] | 71%[5] | 62+/-3% | -8%[5] |
| 中央政府對港政策：正面評價[4] | 27%[5] | 35%[5] | 36% | 23%[5] | 28+/-3% | +5%[5] |
| 中央政府對港政策：負面評價[4] | 38%[5] | 36% | 38% | 53%[5] | 50+/-3% | -3% |
| 中央政府對港政策：評價淨值[4] | -11%[5] | -2%[5] | -2% | -30%[5] | -21+/-5% | +8%[5] |
| 平均量值[4] | 2.7[5] | 2.9[5] | 2.9 | 2.5[5] | 2.6+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
[4] 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[5] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
調查顯示，34%被訪市民因回歸後正式成為中國國民而感到自豪，62%則表示沒有感到自豪。至於回歸以來中央政府對香港的政策，28%被訪市民給予正面評價，50%則給予負面評價，評價淨值為負21個百分點，平均量值則為2.6分，即整體上介乎「一半半」及「唔係幾好」之間。上述兩者均較去年同期轉趨正面。
數據分析
臨近特區成立二十三週年，調查顯示香港巿民對中國國民身份的自豪感比去年同期顯著回升7個百分點至34%，而沒有感到自豪的比率則大幅回落8個百分點至62%。中央政府對港政策方面，市民的評價同樣錄得顯著回升，最新正面評價佔28個百分比，負面評價為50個百分比，淨值為負21個百分點。
Jun 30, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Press Release on June 30, 2020
POP releases HKSAR anniversary survey
Special Announcements
- The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
- The HKSAR anniversary survey conducted by POP this year may be the last of its series, whether it will be continued or not will depend on public support.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,002 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in mid-June. Our survey shows that as the 23rd handover anniversary of the HKSAR draws near, compared to this time last year, Hong Kong people’s sense of pride in becoming a national citizen of China has recovered significantly by 7 percentage points to 34%, while the percentage of those not feeling proud fell back largely by 8 percentage points to 62%. As for people’s appraisal of the Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong, the figures have also rebounded significantly. The latest proportion of positive appraisal stands at 28%, negative appraisal at 50%, resulting in a net value of negative 21 percentage points. The effective response rate of the survey is 54.1%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-3%, that of net values is +/-5% and that of ratings is +/-0.1 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 15-18/6/2020 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,002 (including 497 landline and 505 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate[2] | : | 54.1% |
| Sampling error[3] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, that of net values not more than +/-5% and that of ratings not more than +/-0.1 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
The results of the HKSAR anniversary survey are tabulated as follows:
| Date of survey | 20-23/6/16 | 19-22/6/17 | 14-21/6/18 | 17-20/6/19 | 15-18/6/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,006 | 1,007 | 1,000 | 1,015 | 1,002 | -- |
| Response rate | 69.5% | 71.2% | 59.6% | 58.7% | 54.1% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Proud of becoming a national citizen of China | 31%[5] | 34% | 38%[5] | 27%[5] | 34+/-3% | +7%[5] |
| Not proud of becoming a national citizen of China | 65%[5] | 62% | 57%[5] | 71%[5] | 62+/-3% | -8%[5] |
| Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong: positive appraisal[4] | 27%[5] | 35%[5] | 36% | 23%[5] | 28+/-3% | +5%[5] |
| Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong: negative appraisal[4] | 38%[5] | 36% | 38% | 53%[5] | 50+/-3% | -3% |
| Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong: net appraisal[4] | -11%[5] | -2%[5] | -2% | -30%[5] | -21+/-5% | +8%[5] |
| Mean value[4] | 2.7[5] | 2.9[5] | 2.9 | 2.5[5] | 2.6+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
[4] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Results of the latest anniversary survey revealed that 34% of the respondents were proud of becoming a national citizen of China after the handover, while 62% said they did not have such feeling. As for the policies of the Central Government on Hong Kong after the handover, 28% of the respondents gave positive feedback, whereas 50% gave negative appraisal, giving a net appraisal of negative 21 percentage points. The mean score is 2.6 marks, meaning between “half-half” and “not quite good” in general.
Data Analysis
As the 23rd handover anniversary of the HKSAR draws near, our survey shows that compared to this time last year, Hong Kong people’s sense of pride in becoming a national citizen of China has recovered significantly by 7 percentage points to 34%, while the percentage of those not feeling proud fell back largely by 8 percentage points to 62%. As for people’s appraisal of the Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong, the figures have also rebounded significantly. The latest proportion of positive appraisal stands at 28%, negative appraisal at 50%, resulting in a net value of negative 21 percentage points.
