2020年8月4日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
2020年8月4日 新聞公報
民研計劃發放兩岸政治人物民望
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於七月下旬由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式，分兩階段成功訪問了514和510名香港居民。調查在李登輝逝世前進行，而最新結果顯示在十位香港市民最熟悉的當今中國及台灣領導人之中，以支持度排名，朱鎔基繼續名列首位，得61.6分；第二至第十位分別為蔡英文、溫家寶、胡錦濤、李克強、江澤民、馬英九、習近平、韓國瑜和陳水扁。相比上次調查，江澤民的評分顯著回升，韓國瑜的評分則繼續顯著下跌。此外，李登輝和韓正分別得36.7及33.2分，但由於認知率較低而被剔除。評分調查的實效回應比率為56.5%。在95%置信水平下，調查的評分誤差不超過+/-3.5。
樣本資料
| 提名階段 | 評分階段 | ||
| 調查日期 | ： | 20-21/7/2020 | 22-24/7/2020 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 514 (包括258個固網及256個手機樣本) |
510 (包括267個固網及243個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 66.8% | 56.5% |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 | |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 | |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，評分誤差不超過+/-3.5 | |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一九年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2019年版）。 | |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
在提名調查中，被訪者可在未經提示下說出最多10名最熟悉的當今中國及台灣領導人，首12位最多被訪者提及的則被納入評分調查。在評分調查中，被訪者就個別政治人物以0至100分進行評分，0分代表絕對不支持，100分代表絕對支持，50分為一半半。統計結果後，認知度最低的再被剔除，之後再按支持度由高至低順序排列，得出十大兩岸政治人物。以下是十大兩岸政治人物的最新評分，按評分倒序排列[3]：
| 調查日期 | 20-23/7/18 | 17-19/7/19 | 14-15/1/20 | 22-24/7/20 | 最新變化 | |
| 樣本數目[4] | 500 | 557-690 | 508 | 510 | -- | |
| 回應比率 | 50.8% | 59.8% | 57.7% | 56.5% | -- | |
| 最新結果[5] | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | 認知率 | -- |
| 朱鎔基 | 66.8{1} | 65.3{1} | 59.0{1}[6] | 61.6+/-2.8{1} | 80.2% | +2.6 |
| 蔡英文 | 43.0{8} | 47.4{6}[6] | 57.6{2}[6] | 57.6+/-2.8{2} | 90.2% | -- |
| 溫家寶 | 59.1{3} | 57.2{2} | 51.7{3}[6] | 54.4+/-2.4{3} | 88.3% | +2.7 |
| 胡錦濤 | 56.2{6} | 53.0{4}[6] | 48.4{4}[6] | 51.1+/-2.6{4} | 87.0% | +2.7 |
| 李克強 | 57.3{4} | 50.5{5}[6] | 44.6{6}[6] | 46.4+/-2.9{5} | 86.4% | +1.8 |
| 江澤民 | 45.9{7} | 43.8{8} | 38.3{8}[6] | 46.2+/-2.7{6} | 82.9% | +7.9[6] |
| 馬英九 | 56.7{5}[6] | 53.2{3}[6] | 44.8{5}[6] | 45.9+/-2.4{7} | 85.6% | +1.1 |
| 習近平 | 59.3{2} | 47.1{7}[6] | 39.9{7}[6] | 40.7+/-3.5{8} | 94.3% | +0.8 |
| 韓國瑜 | -- | 40.1[7] | 28.6{9}[6] | 24.6+/-2.6{9} | 78.8% | -4.0[6] |
| 陳水扁 | 24.7{10} | 22.8{10} | 22.9{10} | 23.1+/-2.1{10} | 86.7% | +0.3 |
| 李登輝 | 39.9[7] | 38.2{9} | 37.0[7] | 36.7+/-2.7[7] | 70.1% | -0.3 |
| 韓正 | -- | 41.9[7] | -- | 33.2+/-3.4[7] | 54.3% | -- |
| 宋楚瑜 | -- | -- | 32.0[7] | -- | -- | -- |
| 李鵬 | 38.5{9} | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 王岐山 | 56.2[7] | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
[3] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
[4] 民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字，2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。
[5] 括弧{ }內數字為排名。
[6] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
[7] 於評分調查認知率較低。
李登輝逝世前進行的最新調查顯示，在十位香港市民最熟悉的當今中國及台灣領導人之中，以支持度排名，朱鎔基名列首位，得61.6分；蔡英文、溫家寶和胡錦濤名列第二至四位，得57.6、54.4及51.1分；李克強、江澤民、馬英九和習近平分別得46.4、46.2、45.9及40.7分，位列第五至八位。韓國瑜和陳水扁則分別得24.6及23.1分，佔第九至十位。相比上次調查，江澤民的評分顯著回升，韓國瑜的評分則繼續顯著下跌。李登輝和韓正分別得36.7及33.2分，但由於認知率較低而被剔除。
須要說明，躋身「十大兩岸政治人物」的先決條件是香港巿民的熟悉程度，然後再按支持度排名。「十大」以外的兩岸政治人物，支持度可以很高或很低，但由於並非巿民最熟悉的人物，所以不在榜內。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的調查項目，上次調查日期為14-15/1/2020，而今次調查日期則為22-24/7/2020，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 24/7/20 | 美國國務卿蓬佩奧發表對華政策演說，中國要求美國關閉駐成都總領事館 |
| 22/7/20 | 美國要求中國72小時內關閉駐休斯敦總領事館 |
| 15/7/20 | 美國總統特朗普簽署《香港自治法案》 |
| 3/7/20 | 中央及特區政府公布多項關於國安法的人事任命 |
| 30/6/20 | 國安法獲通過並生效 |
| 13/6/20 | 北京爆發新冠肺炎疫情 |
| 12/6/20 | 中央政府批評有組織發動罷課公投 |
| 8/6/20 | 張曉明在基本法頒布30周年網上研討會發表演說 |
| 6/6/20 | 高雄市民投票通過罷免市長韓國瑜 |
| 4/6/20 | 六四悼念活動於多區進行 |
| 3/6/20 | 國務院副總理韓正與林鄭月娥會晤 |
| 29/5/20 | 特朗普公布有關中國及香港的新措施，並指中國以「一國一制」取代「一國兩制」 |
| 20/5/20 | 台灣總統蔡英文宣誓就職 |
| 21/4/20 | 港澳辦刊登多篇聲明批評郭榮鏗 |
| 15/4/20 | 中聯辦主任駱惠寧指香港要維護國家安全 |
| 13/4/20 | 港澳辦及中聯辦批評立法會議員郭榮鏗 |
| 10/3/20 | 習近平到武漢考察 |
| 13/2/20 | 夏寶龍被委任為港澳辦主任 |
| 23/1/20 | 武漢宣布封城 |
| 20/1/20 | 武漢肺炎於中國急速擴散 |
數據分析
李登輝逝世前進行的最新調查顯示，在十位香港市民最熟悉的當今中國及台灣領導人之中，以支持度排名，朱鎔基繼續名列首位，得61.6分；第二至第十位分別為蔡英文、溫家寶、胡錦濤、李克強、江澤民、馬英九、習近平、韓國瑜和陳水扁。相比上次調查，江澤民的評分顯著回升，韓國瑜的評分則繼續顯著下跌。此外，李登輝和韓正分別得36.7及33.2分，但由於認知率較低而被剔除。
Aug 4, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Press Release on August 4, 2020
POP releases popularity of cross-strait political figures
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 514 and 510 Hong Kong residents in a two-stage random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in late July. Conducted before Lee Teng-hui passed away, the latest survey revealed that among the ten Mainland China and Taiwan political figures most well-known to Hong Kong people, Zhu Rongji continued to rank first in terms of popularity rating, attaining 61.6 marks. The 2nd to 10th ranks went to Tsai Ing-wen, Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao, Li Keqiang, Jiang Zemin, Ma Ying-jeou, Xi Jinping, Han Kuo-yu and Chen Shui-bian. Compared to the previous survey, the rating of Jiang Zemin has rebounded significantly, while that of Han Kuo-yu continued to drop significantly. Besides, Lee Teng-hui and Han Zheng obtained support ratings of 36.7 and 33.2 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The effective response rate of the rating survey is 56.5%. The maximum sampling error of ratings is +/-3.5 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Naming stage | Rating stage | ||
| Date of survey | : | 20-21/7/2020 | 22-24/7/2020 |
| Sample size[1] | : | 514 (including 258 landline and 256 mobile samples) | 510 (including 267 landline and 243 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 66.8% | 56.5% |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers | |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above | |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of ratings not more than +/-3.5 at 95% conf. level | |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. | |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 contemporary leaders in China or Taiwan whom they knew best. The top 12 nominees then entered the rating survey. In the rating survey, respondents were asked to rate individual political figures using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom ones in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings to become the top 10 cross-strait political figures. Recent ratings of the top 10 cross-strait political figures are summarized below, in descending order of support ratings[3]:
| Date of survey | 20-23/7/18 | 17-19/7/19 | 14-15/1/20 | 22-24/7/20 | Latest change | |
| Sample size[4] | 500 | 557-690 | 508 | 510 | -- | |
| Response rate | 50.8% | 59.8% | 57.7% | 56.5% | -- | |
| Latest findings[5] | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | Recognition rate | -- |
| Zhu Rongji | 66.8{1} | 65.3{1} | 59.0{1}[6] | 61.6+/-2.8{1} | 80.2% | +2.6 |
| Tsai Ing-wen | 43.0{8} | 47.4{6}[6] | 57.6{2}[6] | 57.6+/-2.8{2} | 90.2% | -- |
| Wen Jiabao | 59.1{3} | 57.2{2} | 51.7{3}[6] | 54.4+/-2.4{3} | 88.3% | +2.7 |
| Hu Jintao | 56.2{6} | 53.0{4}[6] | 48.4{4}[6] | 51.1+/-2.6{4} | 87.0% | +2.7 |
| Li Keqiang | 57.3{4} | 50.5{5}[6] | 44.6{6}[6] | 46.4+/-2.9{5} | 86.4% | +1.8 |
| Jiang Zemin | 45.9{7} | 43.8{8} | 38.3{8}[6] | 46.2+/-2.7{6} | 82.9% | +7.9[6] |
| Ma Ying-jeou | 56.7{5}[6] | 53.2{3}[6] | 44.8{5}[6] | 45.9+/-2.4{7} | 85.6% | +1.1 |
| Xi Jinping | 59.3{2} | 47.1{7}[6] | 39.9{7}[6] | 40.7+/-3.5{8} | 94.3% | +0.8 |
| Han Kuo-yu | -- | 40.1[7] | 28.6{9}[6] | 24.6+/-2.6{9} | 78.8% | -4.0[6] |
| Chen Shui-bian | 24.7{10} | 22.8{10} | 22.9{10} | 23.1+/-2.1{10} | 86.7% | +0.3 |
| Lee Teng-hui | 39.9[7] | 38.2{9} | 37.0[7] | 36.7+/-2.7[7] | 70.1% | -0.3 |
| Han Zheng | -- | 41.9[7] | -- | 33.2+/-3.4[7] | 54.3% | -- |
| Soong Chu-yu | -- | -- | 32.0[7] | -- | -- | -- |
| Li Peng | 38.5{9} | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Wang Qishan | 56.2[7] | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
[3] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[4] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[5] Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings.
[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[7] Recognition rates were comparatively low in the rating survey.
The latest survey conducted before Lee Teng-hui had passed away revealed that, among the ten Mainland China and Taiwan political figures most well-known to Hong Kong people, Zhu Rongji ranked first in terms of popularity rating, attaining 61.6 marks. The 2nd to 4th ranks went to Tsai Ing-wen, Wen Jiabao and Hu Jintao with scores of 57.6, 54.4 and 51.1 marks respectively. Li Keqiang, Jiang Zemin, Ma Ying-jeou and Xi Jinping occupied the 5th to 8th ranks with 46.4, 46.2, 45.9 and 40.7 marks correspondingly. The 9th to 10th ranks fell to Han Kuo-yu and Chen Shui-bian with respective scores of 24.6 and 23.1 marks. Compared to the previous survey, the rating of Jiang Zemin has rebounded significantly, while that of Han Kuo-yu continued to drop significantly. For this latest survey, Lee Teng-hui and Han Zheng obtained support ratings of 36.7 and 33.2 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates.
It should be noted that our list of “top 10 cross-strait political figures” only includes those best known to the Hong Kong public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political figures may have very high or low support ratings, but they are excluded from the list because they are relatively less well-known.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 14 to 15 January, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 22 to 24 July, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 24/7/20 | US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivers a speech on China policy, while China orders the US to close its consulate in Chengdu. |
| 22/7/20 | The US orders China to close its consulate in Houston within 72 hours. |
| 15/7/20 | US President Donald Trump signs the Hong Kong Autonomy Act. |
| 3/7/20 | The Central Government and the SAR Government announce multiple personnel appointments concerning the national security law. |
| 30/6/20 | The national security law is passed and comes into effect. |
| 13/6/20 | Coronavirus outbreak occurs in Beijing. |
| 12/6/20 | The Central Government criticizes groups for organizing referendum for class boycott. |
| 8/6/20 | Zhang Xiaoming delivers speech at a webinar to commemorate the 30th anniversary of the Basic Law’s promulgation. |
| 6/6/20 | Kaohsiung residents voted to recall mayor Han Kuo-yu. |
| 4/6/20 | June 4 vigils are held in various districts. |
| 3/6/20 | Vice-Premier of the State Council Han Zheng meets Carrie Lam. |
| 29/5/20 | Donald Trump announces new measures toward China and Hong Kong and says China has replaced one country, two systems with one country, one system. |
| 20/5/20 | Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen is sworn into office. |
| 21/4/20 | The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office issues multiple statements to criticize Dennis Kwok. |
| 15/4/20 | Director of the Liaison Office Luo Huining says Hong Kong needs to safeguard national security. |
| 13/4/20 | The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and the Liaison Office criticize Legislative Councillor Dennis Kwok. |
| 10/3/20 | Xi Jinping visits Wuhan. |
| 13/2/20 | Xia Baolong is appointed the Director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office. |
| 23/1/20 | A lockdown of Wuhan is announced. |
| 20/1/20 | Wuhan pneumonia spreads rapidly in China. |
Data Analysis
The latest survey conducted before Lee Teng-hui passed away revealed that, among the ten Mainland China and Taiwan political figures most well-known to Hong Kong people, Zhu Rongji continued to rank first in terms of popularity rating, attaining 61.6 marks. The 2nd to 10th ranks went to Tsai Ing-wen, Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao, Li Keqiang, Jiang Zemin, Ma Ying-jeou, Xi Jinping, Han Kuo-yu and Chen Shui-bian. Compared to the previous survey, the rating of Jiang Zemin has rebounded significantly, while that of Han Kuo-yu continued to drop significantly. Besides, Lee Teng-hui and Han Zheng obtained support ratings of 36.7 and 33.2 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates.
