2020年9月15日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
2020年9月15日 新聞公報
民研計劃發放最新五項核心社會指標
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
根據早前進行的公眾諮詢結果，五項核心社會指標的調查頻率由下半年開始增加至每個月一次，而其他近二十項的非核心社會指標、自由次指標及法治指標則暫定維持半年一次。
公報簡要
民研計劃於八月底至九月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,007名香港居民。最新結果顯示，以0至10分評價，市民對全部五項核心社會指標的評分均低於5分，由高至低排列，分別是「繁榮」、「自由」、「安定」、「民主」和「法治」，得分分別為4.15、4.13、3.63、3.49和3.41分。相比一個月前，「自由」和「法治」指標錄得顯著跌幅。同時，全部五項指標均再創1997年有紀錄以來新低。調查的實效回應比率為58.4%。在95%置信水平下，調查的評分誤差不超過+/-0.28。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 31/8-4/9/2020 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,007 (包括498個固網及509個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 58.4% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，評分誤差不超過+/-0.28 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一九年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2019年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
以下是五項核心社會指標的最新數字：
| 調查日期 | 16-19/9/19 | 14-17/4/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 3-6/8/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目[3] | 587-669 | 627-654 | 598-664 | 584-619 | 590-618 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 69.5% | 64.5% | 52.4% | 64.4% | 58.4% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 繁榮指標 | 5.87[4] | 5.45[4] | 5.35 | 4.19[4] | 4.15+/-0.21 | -0.04 |
| 自由指標 | 6.00[4] | 5.58[4] | 4.84[4] | 4.74 | 4.13+/-0.28 | -0.61[4] |
| 安定指標 | 4.05[4] | 4.44[4] | 4.12[4] | 3.76[4] | 3.63+/-0.24 | -0.13 |
| 民主指標 | 4.55[4] | 4.61 | 4.37 | 3.70[4] | 3.49+/-0.28 | -0.21 |
| 法治指標 | 4.41[4] | 4.45 | 4.14 | 3.80 | 3.41+/-0.25 | -0.38[4] |
[3] 民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字，2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。
[4] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以0至10分評價，市民對全部五項核心社會指標的評分均低於5分，由高至低分別是「繁榮」、「自由」、「安定」、「民主」和「法治」，得分分別為4.15、4.13、3.63、3.49和3.41分。相比一個月前，「自由」和「法治」指標錄得顯著跌幅。同時，全部五項指標均再創1997年有紀錄以來新低。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的調查項目，上次調查日期為3-6/8/2020，而今次調查日期則為31/8-4/9/2020，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 3/9/20 | 普及社區檢測計劃從已驗的12.8萬個樣本中找出兩宗新個案 |
| 2/9/20 | 政府宣布放寬防疫措施 |
| 1/9/20 | 普及社區檢測計劃開展首日有12.6萬人完成採樣 |
| 27/8/20 | 中國海警於8月23日截獲赴台快艇，拘捕12名香港青年 |
| 26/8/20 | 警方就7．21事件以暴動罪拘捕13名白衣人以外人士 |
| 25/8/20 | 政府宣布放寬防疫措施 |
| 19/8/20 | 香港失業率升至6.1% |
| 18/8/20 | 政府公布第二期保就業計劃 |
| 11/8/20 | 人大常委決定現屆立法會繼續履行職責不少於一年 |
| 10/8/20 | 警方引用國安法搜查壹傳媒，並拘捕黎智英及周庭等人 |
| 8/8/20 | 香港政府發表聲明譴責美國制裁11名中港官員 |
| 7/8/20 | 政府宣布推行免費全民自願冠狀病毒檢測 |
數據分析
調查顯示，以0至10分評價，市民對全部五項核心社會指標的評分均低於5分，由高至低排列，分別是「繁榮」、「自由」、「安定」、「民主」和「法治」，得分分別為4.15、4.13、3.63、3.49和3.41分。相比一個月前，「自由」和「法治」指標錄得顯著跌幅。同時，全部五項指標均再創1997年有紀錄以來新低。
Sep 15, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Press Release on September 15, 2020
POP releases the latest five core social indicators
Special Announcements
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
According to the result of our public consultation conducted a while ago, the survey of the five core social indicators has been increased to once a month from the second half of this year, while the remaining 20 or so non-core social indicators, freedom and rule of law sub-indicators will remain to be run on a half-yearly cycle.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,007 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers from late August to early September. Latest results show that on a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators are lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “prosperity”, “freedom”, “stability”, “democracy” and “rule of law”. Their scores are 4.15, 4.13, 3.63, 3.49 and 3.41 respectively. Compared with a month ago, ratings of “freedom” and “rule of law” have dropped significantly. Meanwhile, all five indicators have registered all-time record lows again since the survey began in 1997. The effective response rate of the survey is 58.4%. The maximum sampling error of ratings is +/-0.28 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 31/8-4/9/2020 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,007 (including 498 landline and 509 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 58.4% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of ratings not more than +/-0.28 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Herewith the latest figures of the five core social indicators:
| Date of survey | 16-19/9/19 | 14-17/4/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 3-6/8/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size[3] | 587-669 | 627-654 | 598-664 | 584-619 | 590-618 | -- |
| Response rate | 69.5% | 64.5% | 52.4% | 64.4% | 58.4% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Degree of prosperity | 5.87[4] | 5.45[4] | 5.35 | 4.19[4] | 4.15+/-0.21 | -0.04 |
| Degree of freedom | 6.00[4] | 5.58[4] | 4.84[4] | 4.74 | 4.13+/-0.28 | -0.61[4] |
| Degree of stability | 4.05[4] | 4.44[4] | 4.12[4] | 3.76[4] | 3.63+/-0.24 | -0.13 |
| Degree of democracy | 4.55[4] | 4.61 | 4.37 | 3.70[4] | 3.49+/-0.28 | -0.21 |
| Compliance with the rule of law | 4.41[4] | 4.45 | 4.14 | 3.80 | 3.41+/-0.25 | -0.38[4] |
[3] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators are lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “prosperity”, “freedom”, “stability”, “democracy” and “rule of law”. Their scores are 4.15, 4.13, 3.63, 3.49 and 3.41 respectively. Compared with a month ago, ratings of “freedom” and “rule of law” have dropped significantly. Meanwhile, all five indicators have again registered all-time record lows since the survey began in 1997.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 3 to 6 August, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 31 August to 4 September, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 3/9/20 | The Universal Community Testing Programme locates two new cases among about 128,000 tests conducted. |
| 2/9/20 | The government relaxes anti-epidemic measures. |
| 1/9/20 | About 126,000 people have taken the test on the first day of the Universal Community Testing Programme. |
| 27/8/20 | China Coast Guard intercepted a speedboat to Taiwan on August 23 and arrested 12 yonng Hong Kong people. |
| 26/8/20 | Police arrests 13 people who were not “people in white” for rioting in the 7.21 incident. |
| 25/8/20 | The government relaxes anti-epidemic measures. |
| 19/8/20 | Unemployment rate in Hong Kong rises to 6.1%. |
| 18/8/20 | The government announces the second round of Employment Support Scheme. |
| 11/8/20 | The NPCSC decides that the current Legislative Council shall continue to discharge duties for no less than one year. |
| 10/8/20 | Police searches Next Media and arrests Jimmy Lai, Agnes Chow and other people under national security law. |
| 8/8/20 | The Hong Kong government issues statement condemning US sanction on 11 Chinese or Hong Kong government officials. |
| 7/8/20 | The government announces mass voluntary coronavirus testing scheme. |
Data Analysis
Survey shows that on a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators are lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “prosperity”, “freedom”, “stability”, “democracy” and “rule of law”. Their scores are 4.15, 4.13, 3.63, 3.49 and 3.41 respectively. Compared with a month ago, ratings of “freedom” and “rule of law” have dropped significantly. Meanwhile, all five indicators have registered all-time record lows again since the survey began in 1997.
