2020年10月16日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
2020年10月16日 新聞公報
民研計劃發放特首及司長民望數字
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
根據我們早前進行的公眾諮詢結果，局長民望調查的頻率已由下半年開始減至每兩個月一次。因此今天的公報只有特首及三位司長的民望數字。
公報簡要
民研計劃於十月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,002名香港居民。結果顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為28.6分，民望淨值為負53個百分點，兩項民望數字與半個月前分別不大。司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分為28.7分，民望淨值為負32個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為36.9分，民望淨值為負16個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為19.3分，民望淨值為負57個百分點。以上全部數字與一個月前分別不大。調查的實效回應比率為62.8%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.7。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 5-8/10/2020 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,002 (包括492個固網及510個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 62.8% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.7 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一九年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2019年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 20-24/7/20 | 3-6/8/20 | 17-20/8/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 21-24/9/20 | 5-8/10/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,029 | 1,001 | 1,020 | 1,007 | 1,013 | 1,002 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 62.5% | 64.4% | 60.9% | 58.4% | 61.5% | 62.8% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特首林鄭月娥評分 | 28.9 | 26.9 | 26.8 | 28.1 | 27.5 | 28.6+/-2.1 | +1.0 |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首支持率 | 18%[3] | 19% | 24%[3] | 21% | 17% | 18+/-2% | +1% |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首反對率 | 72% | 72% | 70% | 69% | 71% | 72+/-3% | +1% |
| 支持率淨值 | -53% | -54% | -46%[3] | -48% | -53% | -53+/-5% | -- |
[3] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是各問責司長的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 4-6/5/20 | 1-4/6/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 3-6/8/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 5-8/10/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 574-609 | 562-655 | 524-596 | 503-655 | 649-689 | 593-642 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 62.5% | 64.3% | 52.4% | 64.4% | 58.4% | 62.8% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 政務司司長張建宗評分 | 30.1 | 30.6 | 29.9 | 29.0 | 28.5 | 28.7+/-2.4 | +0.3 |
| 張建宗出任政務司司長支持率 | 17% | 19% | 19% | 16% | 16% | 18+/-3% | +2% |
| 張建宗出任政務司司長反對率 | 49% | 51% | 52% | 55% | 54% | 50+/-4% | -4% |
| 支持率淨值 | -32% | -32% | -33% | -39% | -39% | -32+/-6% | +7% |
| 財政司司長陳茂波評分 | 33.3 | 34.3 | 37.8 | 37.0 | 35.5 | 36.9+/-2.7 | +1.4 |
| 陳茂波出任財政司司長支持率 | 25% | 26% | 28% | 26% | 28% | 28+/-4% | -- |
| 陳茂波出任財政司司長反對率 | 49% | 47% | 44% | 46% | 46% | 44+/-4% | -2% |
| 支持率淨值 | -24% | -21% | -16% | -20% | -18% | -16+/-7% | +2% |
| 律政司司長鄭若驊評分 | 20.2 | 18.7 | 20.3 | 22.2 | 20.8 | 19.3+/-2.2 | -1.5 |
| 鄭若驊出任律政司司長支持率 | 8% | 11% | 10% | 15%[4] | 13% | 12+/-3% | -1% |
| 鄭若驊出任律政司司長反對率 | 69% | 72% | 68% | 67% | 69% | 68+/-4% | -- |
| 支持率淨值 | -61% | -61% | -57% | -53% | -56% | -57+/-6% | -1% |
[4] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為28.6分，其支持率為18%，反對率為72%，民望淨值為負53個百分點，全部數字與半個月前分別不大。
司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分為28.7分，支持率為18%，反對率為50%，民望淨值為負32個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為36.9分，支持率為28%，反對率為44%，民望淨值為負16個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為19.3分，支持率為12%，反對率為68%，民望淨值為負57個百分點。以上全部數字與一個月前分別不大。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為31/8-4/9/2020，而今次調查日期則為5-8/10/2020，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 8/10/20 | 香港新增14宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 7/10/20 | 香港新增9宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 6/10/20 | 教育局以專業失德為由取消一名小學教師註冊 |
| 1/10/20 | 警方於銅鑼灣等各區拘捕最少86名示威者 |
| 29/9/20 | 民主派公布立法會議員去留問題民意調查結果 |
| 23/9/20 | 政府宣布不延長迪士尼60公頃擴建地認購權 |
| 22/9/20 | 警方修改《警察通例》下「傳媒代表」定義 |
| 15/9/20 | 政府交代普及社區檢測計劃成本及效益 |
| 14/9/20 | 178萬人參與普及社區檢測計劃，發現32宗新個案 |
| 12/9/20 | 12名香港青年被扣押深圳逾兩周，被捕人士家屬召開記者會 |
| 11/9/20 | 死因庭陪審團裁定陳彥霖死因存疑 |
| 10/9/20 | 警方以在買賣壹傳媒股票時涉嫌詐騙及洗黑錢拘捕15人 |
| 8/9/20 | 政府宣布進一步放寬防疫措施 |
| 2/9/20 | 政府宣布放寬防疫措施 |
| 1/9/20 | 普及社區檢測計劃開展首日有12.6萬人完成採樣 |
數據分析
調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為28.6分，民望淨值為負53個百分點，兩項民望數字與半個月前分別不大。
司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分為28.7分，民望淨值為負32個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為36.9分，民望淨值為負16個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為19.3分，民望淨值為負57個百分點。以上全部數字與一個月前分別不大。
Oct 16, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Press Release on October 16, 2020
POP releases popularity figures of CE and Secretaries of Departments
Special Announcements
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
According to the result of our public consultation conducted a while ago, the popularity survey of Directors of Bureaux have been thinned out to once every 2 months since the second half of this year. Therefore, today’s release only includes the popularity figures of CE and 3 Secretaries of Departments.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,002 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early October. Latest results show that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 28.6 marks. Her net popularity is negative 53 percentage points. Both popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 28.7 marks and his net popularity is negative 32 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 36.9 marks and his net popularity is negative 16 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 19.3 marks and her net popularity is negative 57 percentage points. All popularity figures above have not changed much from a month ago. The effective response rate of the survey is 62.8%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.7 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 5-8/10/2020 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,002 (including 492 landline and 510 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 62.8% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.7 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 20-24/7/20 | 3-6/8/20 | 17-20/8/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 21-24/9/20 | 5-8/10/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,029 | 1,001 | 1,020 | 1,007 | 1,013 | 1,002 | -- |
| Response rate | 62.5% | 64.4% | 60.9% | 58.4% | 61.5% | 62.8% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 28.9 | 26.9 | 26.8 | 28.1 | 27.5 | 28.6+/-2.1 | +1.0 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 18%[3] | 19% | 24%[3] | 21% | 17% | 18+/-2% | +1% |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 72% | 72% | 70% | 69% | 71% | 72+/-3% | +1% |
| Net approval rate | -53% | -54% | -46%[3] | -48% | -53% | -53+/-5% | -- |
[3] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 4-6/5/20 | 1-4/6/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 3-6/8/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 5-8/10/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 574-609 | 562-655 | 524-596 | 503-655 | 649-689 | 593-642 | -- |
| Response rate | 62.5% | 64.3% | 52.4% | 64.4% | 58.4% | 62.8% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CS Matthew Cheung | 30.1 | 30.6 | 29.9 | 29.0 | 28.5 | 28.7+/-2.4 | +0.3 |
| Vote of confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
17% | 19% | 19% | 16% | 16% | 18+/-3% | +2% |
| Vote of no confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
49% | 51% | 52% | 55% | 54% | 50+/-4% | -4% |
| Net approval rate | -32% | -32% | -33% | -39% | -39% | -32+/-6% | +7% |
| Rating of FS Paul Chan | 33.3 | 34.3 | 37.8 | 37.0 | 35.5 | 36.9+/-2.7 | +1.4 |
| Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan | 25% | 26% | 28% | 26% | 28% | 28+/-4% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan | 49% | 47% | 44% | 46% | 46% | 44+/-4% | -2% |
| Net approval rate | -24% | -21% | -16% | -20% | -18% | -16+/-7% | +2% |
| Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng | 20.2 | 18.7 | 20.3 | 22.2 | 20.8 | 19.3+/-2.2 | -1.5 |
| Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 8% | 11% | 10% | 15%[4] | 13% | 12+/-3% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 69% | 72% | 68% | 67% | 69% | 68+/-4% | -- |
| Net approval rate | -61% | -61% | -57% | -53% | -56% | -57+/-6% | -1% |
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 28.6 marks. Her approval rate is 18%, disapproval rate 72%, giving a net popularity of negative 53 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 28.7 marks. His approval rate is 18%, disapproval rate 50%, giving a net popularity of negative 32 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 36.9 marks, approval rate 28%, disapproval rate 44%, thus a net popularity of negative 16 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 19.3 marks, approval rate 12%, disapproval rate 68%, giving a net popularity of negative 57 percentage points. All popularity figures above have not changed much from a month ago.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 31 August to 4 September, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 5 to 8 October, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 8/10/20 | Hong Kong confirms 14 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 7/10/20 | Hong Kong confirms 9 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 6/10/20 | The Education Bureau deregisters a primary school teacher for professional misconduct. |
| 1/10/20 | Police arrests at least 86 protesters in various districts including Causeway Bay. |
| 29/9/20 | Democrats announce survey results on whether Legislative Councillors should stay or go. |
| 23/9/20 | The government announces that Hong Kong Disneyland’s option to purchase a potential 60-hectare expansion site will not be extended. |
| 22/9/20 | Police changes the definition of “media representatives” under the Police General Orders. |
| 15/9/20 | The government explains the costs and benefits of the Universal Community Testing Programme. |
| 14/9/20 | The Universal Community Testing Programme ends with 1.78 million people participated and 32 new cases found. |
| 12/9/20 | Twelve Hong Kong youngsters have been detained in Shenzhen for over two weeks. Their family members hold a press conference. |
| 11/9/20 | The jury in the Coroner’s Court returns an open verdict in the death of Chan Yin-lam. |
| 10/9/20 | Police arrests 15 people on suspicion of defrauding and money laundering by trading Next Digital shares. |
| 8/9/20 | The government further relaxes anti-epidemic measures. |
| 2/9/20 | The government relaxes anti-epidemic measures. |
| 1/9/20 | About 126,000 people have taken the test on the first day of the Universal Community Testing Programme. |
Data Analysis
The latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 28.6 marks. Her net popularity is negative 53 percentage points. Both popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 28.7 marks and his net popularity is negative 32 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 36.9 marks and his net popularity is negative 16 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 19.3 marks and her net popularity is negative 57 percentage points. All popularity figures above have not changed much from a month ago.
