2020年10月20日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
2020年10月20日 新聞公報
民研計劃發放市民對新聞傳媒的評價
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於九月底至十月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,006名香港居民。結果顯示，在多種新聞傳媒之中，互聯網和電視繼續是市民的主要新聞來源，主要透過報紙得悉新聞者比率創2000年有紀錄以來新低，透過電台的比率則大幅回落。香港新聞自由程度的滿意淨值為負25個百分點，再創1997年有紀錄以來最低，而認為香港新聞傳媒報道負責任的淨值為負16個百分點，亦創2007年以來新低。以0-10分為標準，市民對香港新聞傳媒公信力的評分顯著下跌0.34分至5.14，是自1997年有紀錄以來新低。調查的實效回應比率為57.9%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-3%，淨值誤差不超過+/-6%，評分誤差不超過+/-0.13。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 25/9-8/10/2020 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,006 (包括501個固網及505個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 57.9% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-3%，淨值誤差不超過+/-6%，評分誤差不超過+/-0.13 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一九年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2019年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
新聞傳媒調查的最新結果表列如下：
| 調查日期 | 20-22/8/18 | 21-24/1/19 | 15-20/8/19 | 2-3/3/20 | 25/9-8/10/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目[3] | 544-593 | 541-564 | 548-683 | 503 | 1,006 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 53.0% | 59.0% | 68.5% | 64.0% | 57.9% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 市民的主要新聞來源： | ||||||
| 互聯網 | 63% | 69%[5] | 74% | 76% | 70+/-3% | -6%[5] |
| 電視 | 70% | 65% | 66% | 68% | 66+/-3% | -2% |
| 報紙 | 47% | 52% | 42%[5] | 38% | 37+/-3% | -1% |
| 電台 | 30% | 30% | 37%[5] | 40% | 27+/-3% | -12%[5] |
| 朋友 | 18% | 18% | 28%[5] | 27% | 18+/-2% | -9%[5] |
| 認為最值得信任的新聞來源： | -- | |||||
| 電視 | 33% | -- | 25%[5] | 29% | 29+/-3% | -1% |
| 互聯網 | 14% | -- | 31%[5] | 29% | 28+/-3% | -1% |
| 報紙 | 16% | -- | 9%[5] | 10% | 12+/-2% | +2% |
| 電台 | 17% | -- | 14% | 17% | 9+/-2% | -8%[5] |
| 家人 | 4% | -- | 5% | 4% | 4+/-1% | -- |
| 香港新聞自由滿意率[4] | 52% | -- | 51% | 33%[5] | 29+/-3% | -4% |
| 香港新聞自由不滿率[4] | 30%[5] [6] | -- | 33% | 54%[5] | 54+/-3% | -- |
| 滿意率淨值 | 22% | -- | 18% | -21%[5] | -25+/-6% | -4% |
| 平均量值[4] | 3.2 | -- | 3.2 | 2.6[5] | 2.5+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
| 認為香港新聞傳媒： | -- | |||||
| 報道負責任[4] | 29% | -- | 40%[5] | 28%[5] | 19+/-2% | -8%[5] |
| 報道不負責任[4] | 39% | -- | 30%[5] | 36%[5] | 35+/-3% | -1% |
| 淨值 | -9% | -- | 10%[5] | -8%[5] | -16+/-5% | -8% |
| 平均量值[4] | 2.8 | -- | 3.1[5] | 2.8[5] | 2.7+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
| 有自我審查 | 56% | -- | 59% | 56% | 50+/-3% | -5%[5] |
| 沒有自我審查 | 29% | -- | 29% | 33% | 30+/-3% | -3% |
| 淨值 | 27% | -- | 31% | 23% | 20+/-6% | -3% |
| 香港新聞傳媒公信力評分 (0-10) | 5.89[5] [6] | 5.77 | 5.81 | 5.49[5] | 5.14+/-0.13 | -0.34[5] |
[3] 民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字，2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。
[4] 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[5] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
[6] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，是由於加權方法改變。如果以舊有加權方法處理數據，則差異並未超過抽樣誤差。
新聞傳媒調查發現，分別為數70%及66%被訪者表示主要透過互聯網和電視得悉新聞，37%則表示是報紙，創2000年有紀錄以來新低。另外，只有27%被訪者主要透過電台得悉新聞，較三月大幅回落12個百分點。信任程度方面，分別有29%和28%被訪者認為電視和互聯網是最值得信任的新聞來源，12%和9%則分別認為是報紙和電台，後者較三月大幅回落8個百分點，創1997年以來新低。
調查亦發現，29%被訪市民表示滿意香港的新聞自由程度，54%表示不滿，淨值為負25個百分點，平均量值為2.5，即整體上介乎「一半半」與「幾不滿意」之間，全部數字再次創1997年有紀錄以來最差。同時，19%認為香港新聞傳媒的報道負責任，35%認為不負責任，淨值為負16個百分點，創2007年以來新低。平均量值則為2.7，即整體上介乎「一半半」與「幾不負責任」之間。另外，50%認為香港新聞傳媒有自我審查，30%認為沒有，淨值為正20個百分點。以0-10分為標準，市民對香港新聞傳媒公信力的評分顯著下跌0.34分至5.14，是自1997年有紀錄以來新低。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的調查項目，上次調查日期為2-3/3/2020，而今次調查日期則為25/9-8/10/2020，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 8/10/20 | 香港新增14宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 7/10/20 | 香港新增9宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 6/10/20 | 教育局以專業失德為由取消一名小學教師註冊 |
| 1/10/20 | 警方於銅鑼灣等各區拘捕最少86名示威者 |
| 29/9/20 | 民主派公布立法會議員去留問題民意調查結果 |
| 23/9/20 | 政府宣布不延長迪士尼60公頃擴建地認購權 |
| 22/9/20 | 警方修改《警察通例》下「傳媒代表」定義 |
| 15/9/20 | 政府交代普及社區檢測計劃成本及效益 |
| 14/9/20 | 178萬人參與普及社區檢測計劃，發現32宗新個案 |
| 12/9/20 | 12名香港青年被扣押深圳逾兩周，被捕人士家屬召開記者會 |
| 11/9/20 | 死因庭陪審團裁定陳彥霖死因存疑 |
| 10/9/20 | 警方以在買賣壹傳媒股票時涉嫌詐騙及洗黑錢拘捕15人 |
| 8/9/20 | 政府宣布進一步放寬防疫措施 |
| 2/9/20 | 政府宣布放寬防疫措施 |
| 1/9/20 | 普及社區檢測計劃開展首日有12.6萬人完成採樣 |
| 10/8/20 | 警方引用國安法搜查壹傳媒，並拘捕黎智英及周庭等人 |
| 15/5/20 | 監警會發表報告指沒有任何證據顯示8.31太子站事件中有人死亡 |
| 18/4/20 | 李柱銘、黎智英等15名民主派人士被捕 |
數據分析
調查顯示，在多種新聞傳媒之中，互聯網和電視繼續是市民的主要新聞來源，主要透過報紙得悉新聞者比率創2000年有紀錄以來新低，透過電台的比率則大幅回落。
香港新聞自由程度的滿意淨值為負25個百分點，再創1997年有紀錄以來最低，而認為香港新聞傳媒報道負責任的淨值為負16個百分點，亦創2007年以來新低。以0-10分為標準，市民對香港新聞傳媒公信力的評分顯著下跌0.34分至5.14，是自1997年有紀錄以來新低。
Oct 20, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Press Release on October 20, 2020
POP releases people’s appraisal of news media
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,006 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers from late September to early October. Latest results show that among various types of news media, the internet and television remain to be people’s main sources of news. The percentage of people using newspapers as their main source of news has registered an all-time low since record began in 2000, while that of radio has dramatically decreased. Net satisfaction with the freedom of the press in Hong Kong stands at negative 25 percentage points, registering another all-time low since record began in 1997, while the net value of people perceiving the local news media to be responsible in their reporting stands at negative 16 percentage points, representing a record low since 2007. On a scale of 0-10, the credibility rating of the Hong Kong news media drops significantly by 0.34 marks to 5.14, registering an all-time low since record began in 1997. The effective response rate of the survey is 57.9%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-3%, that of net values is +/-6% and that of ratings is +/-0.13 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 25/9-8/10/2020 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,006 (including 501 landline and 505 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 57.9% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, that of net values not more than +/-6% and that of ratings not more than +/-0.13 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Latest results of the news media survey are tabulated as follows:
| Date of survey | 20-22/8/18 | 21-24/1/19 | 15-20/8/19 | 2-3/3/20 | 25/9-8/10/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size[3] | 544-593 | 541-564 | 548-683 | 503 | 1,006 | -- |
| Response rate | 53.0% | 59.0% | 68.5% | 64.0% | 57.9% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| People’s main source of news: | ||||||
| Internet | 63% | 69%[5] | 74% | 76% | 70+/-3% | -6%[5] |
| Television | 70% | 65% | 66% | 68% | 66+/-3% | -2% |
| Newspapers | 47% | 52% | 42%[5] | 38% | 37+/-3% | -1% |
| Radio | 30% | 30% | 37%[5] | 40% | 27+/-3% | -12%[5] |
| Friends | 18% | 18% | 28%[5] | 27% | 18+/-2% | -9%[5] |
| Most trustworthy source of news: | -- | |||||
| Television | 33% | -- | 25%[5] | 29% | 29+/-3% | -1% |
| Internet | 14% | -- | 31%[5] | 29% | 28+/-3% | -1% |
| Newspapers | 16% | -- | 9%[5] | 10% | 12+/-2% | +2% |
| Radio | 17% | -- | 14% | 17% | 9+/-2% | -8%[5] |
| Family members | 4% | -- | 5% | 4% | 4+/-1% | -- |
| Satisfaction rate of freedom of the press in HK[4] |
52% | -- | 51% | 33%[5] | 29+/-3% | -4% |
| Dissatisfaction rate of freedom of the press in HK[4] |
30%[5] [6] | -- | 33% | 54%[5] | 54+/-3% | -- |
| Net satisfaction rate | 22% | -- | 18% | -21%[5] | -25+/-6% | -4% |
| Mean value[4] | 3.2 | -- | 3.2 | 2.6[5] | 2.5+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
| Perceived that the local news media: | -- | |||||
| Were responsible in their reporting[4] | 29% | -- | 40%[5] | 28%[5] | 19+/-2% | -8%[5] |
| Were irresponsible in their reporting[4] | 39% | -- | 30%[5] | 36%[5] | 35+/-3% | -1% |
| Net value | -9% | -- | 10%[5] | -8%[5] | -16+/-5% | -8% |
| Mean value[4] | 2.8 | -- | 3.1[5] | 2.8[5] | 2.7+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
| Had practiced self-censorship | 56% | -- | 59% | 56% | 50+/-3% | -5%[5] |
| Had not practiced self-censorship | 29% | -- | 29% | 33% | 30+/-3% | -3% |
| Net value | 27% | -- | 31% | 23% | 20+/-6% | -3% |
| Credibility rating of the local news media (0-10) | 5.89[5] [6] | 5.77 | 5.81 | 5.49[5] | 5.14+/-0.13 | -0.34[5] |
[3] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[4] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level because of a change in the weighting method. If the previous weighting method was used, the difference would not have gone beyond the sampling error.
Results of the news media survey showed that 70% and 66% of the respondents claimed their main sources of news were the internet and television respectively, while 37% said it was newspapers, registering an all-time low since record began in 2000. Besides, only 27% said their main source of news was radio, registering a big drop of 12 percentage points since March. As for trustworthiness, 29% and 28% of the respondents respectively found television and the internet to be the most trustworthy source of news, while 12% and 9% said it was newspapers and radio respectively, the latter registering a big drop of 8 percentage points and a record low since 1997.
Results also showed that 29% of the respondents were satisfied with the freedom of the press in Hong Kong while 54% were dissatisfied, giving a net satisfaction of negative 25 percentage points. The mean value is 2.5, meaning between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general. All these figures are again at their worst since record began in 1997. Meanwhile, 19% perceived the local news media to be responsible in their reporting, 35% regarded the local news media as irresponsible, giving a net value of negative 16 percentage points, a record low since 2007. The mean value is 2.7, meaning between “half-half” and “quite irresponsible” in general. Besides, 50% of the respondents thought the local news media had practiced self-censorship while 30% perceived the contrary, giving a net value of positive 20 percentage points. On a scale of 0-10, the credibility rating of the Hong Kong news media drops significantly by 0.34 marks to 5.14, registering an all-time low since record began in 1997.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 2 to 3 March, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 25 September to 8 October, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 8/10/20 | Hong Kong confirms 14 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 7/10/20 | Hong Kong confirms 9 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 6/10/20 | The Education Bureau deregisters a primary school teacher for professional misconduct. |
| 1/10/20 | Police arrests at least 86 protesters in various districts including Causeway Bay. |
| 29/9/20 | Democrats announce survey results on whether Legislative Councillors should stay or go. |
| 23/9/20 | The government announces that Hong Kong Disneyland’s option to purchase a potential 60-hectare expansion site will not be extended. |
| 22/9/20 | Police changes the definition of “media representatives” under the Police General Orders. |
| 15/9/20 | The government explains the costs and benefits of the Universal Community Testing Programme. |
| 14/9/20 | The Universal Community Testing Programme ends with 1.78 million people participated and 32 new cases found. |
| 12/9/20 | Twelve Hong Kong youngsters have been detained in Shenzhen for over two weeks. Their family members hold a press conference. |
| 11/9/20 | The jury in the Coroner’s Court returns an open verdict in the death of Chan Yin-lam. |
| 10/9/20 | Police arrests 15 people on suspicion of defrauding and money laundering by trading Next Digital shares. |
| 8/9/20 | The government further relaxes anti-epidemic measures. |
| 2/9/20 | The government relaxes anti-epidemic measures. |
| 1/9/20 | About 126,000 people have taken the test on the first day of the Universal Community Testing Programme. |
| 10/8/20 | Police searches Next Media and arrests Jimmy Lai, Agnes Chow and other people under national security law. |
| 15/5/20 | Independent Police Complaints Council releases a report saying there is no evidence of casualties in the Prince Edward MTR incident on August 31. |
| 18/4/20 | 15 pan-democrats including Martin Lee and Jimmy Lai are arrested. |
Data Analysis
The latest survey shows that among various types of news media, the internet and television remain to be people’s main sources of news. The percentage of people using newspapers as their main source of news has registered an all-time low since record began in 2000, while that of radio has dramatically decreased.
Net satisfaction with the freedom of the press in Hong Kong stands at negative 25 percentage points, registering another all-time low since record began in 1997, while the net value of people perceiving the local news media to be responsible in their reporting stands at negative 16 percentage points, representing a record low since 2007. On a scale of 0-10, the credibility rating of the Hong Kong news media drops significantly by 0.34 marks to 5.14, registering an all-time low since record began in 1997.
