2020年11月3日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
2020年11月3日 新聞公報
民研計劃發放立法會議員和政治團體民望
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於十月由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式，分別成功訪問了1,002、504和510名香港居民。調查顯示，6位最多人認識的立法會議員分別是楊岳橋、李慧琼、毛孟靜、鄺俊宇、涂謹申和梁美芬，支持度排首位是鄺俊宇，得57.3分。第二至三位是涂謹申和毛孟靜，分別得46.4及44.7分，當中毛孟靜的評分較上次調查顯著下跌5.8分。然後是李慧琼和梁美芬，分別得32.2及25.9分。楊岳橋得44.8分，較上次調查顯著下跌8.7分，但由於認知率較低而被剔除。梁美芬和楊岳橋的評分均創其2017年首次被評分以來新低。政治團體民望方面，人民力量以42.9分首次奪得首位；第二至六位是民主黨、社民連、公民黨、工黨和熱血公民，分別得42.5、40.7、39.3、36.8及35.6分；自由黨、新民黨、民建聯和工聯會分別排第七至十位，得33.6、27.8、27.4及27.4分。新民主同盟和經民聯分別得38.4及25.3分，但由於認知率較低而被剔除。相比六個月前，民建聯、工聯會、經民聯和自由黨的評分顯著下跌。人民力量和熱血公民的評分是其分別於2011和2016年首次被評分以來新高，社民連的評分亦創2014年以來新高。相反，工聯會、自由黨、公民黨、新民黨和經民聯的評分是其分別於1991、1993、2006、2011和2017年首次被評分以來新低。立法會議員和政治團體評分調查的實效回應比率分別為58.3%和65.9%。在95%置信水平下，調查的評分誤差不超過+/-3.4。
樣本資料
| 立法會議員提名階段 | 立法會議員評分階段及 政治團體提名階段 |
政治團體評分階段 | ||
| 調查日期 | ： | 5-8/10/2020 | 19-20/10/2020 | 21-22/10/2020 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,002 (包括492個固網及510個手機樣本) | 504 (包括250個固網及254個手機樣本) | 510 (包括255個固網及255個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 62.8% | 58.3% | 65.9% |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 | ||
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 | ||
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，評分誤差不超過+/-3.4 | ||
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一九年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2019年版）。 | ||
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
立法會議員民望
在提名調查中，被訪者可在未經提示下說出最多10名最熟悉的議員，結果首6位最多被訪者提及的議員分別是楊岳橋、李慧琼、毛孟靜、鄺俊宇、涂謹申和梁美芬，他們於是被納入評分調查。在評分調查中，被訪者就個別議員以0至100分進行評分，0分代表絕對不支持，100分代表絕對支持，50分為一半半。統計結果後，認知度最低的再被剔除，之後再按支持度由高至低順序排列，得出五大立法會議員。以下是五大立法會議員的最新評分，按評分倒序排列[3]：
| 調查日期 | 21-23/10/19 | 7-8/1/20 | 1-2/4/20 | 19-20/10/20 | 最新變化 | |
| 樣本數目[4] | 526 | 507 | 500 | 504 | -- | |
| 回應比率 | 63.4% | 70.4% | 68.1% | 58.3% | -- | |
| 最新結果[5] | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | 認知率 | -- |
| 鄺俊宇 | 59.0{1} | 64.3{1}[6] | 60.4{1} | 57.3+/-3.4{1} | 79.1% | -3.2 |
| 涂謹申 | -- | -- | -- | 46.4+/-2.9{2} | 84.5% | -- |
| 毛孟靜 | 48.8{3} | 54.0{4}[6] | 50.5{4} | 44.7+/-3.1{3} | 86.8% | -5.8[6] |
| 李慧琼 | 25.3{4}[6] | 28.6{5} | 32.8{5}[6] | 32.2+/-3.2{4} | 90.0% | -0.6 |
| 梁美芬 | -- | -- | -- | 25.9+/-3.0{5} | 82.0% | -- |
| 楊岳橋 | 57.7[7] | 56.7[7] | 53.5{2} | 44.8+/-3.2[7] | 78.4% | -8.7[6] |
| 朱凱廸 | -- | -- | 52.6{3} | -- | -- | -- |
| 譚文豪 | -- | -- | 56.1[7] | -- | -- | -- |
| 林卓廷 | -- | 56.6{2} | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 陳淑莊 | 52.3{2} | 56.5{3} | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 何君堯 | 17.1{5} | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
[3] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
[4] 民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字，2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。
[5] 括弧{ }內數字為排名。
[6] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
[7] 於評分調查認知率較低。
最新調查顯示，市民對立法會議員的最新支持度排名，首位是鄺俊宇，得57.3分。第二至三位是涂謹申和毛孟靜，分別得46.4及44.7分，當中毛孟靜的評分較上次調查顯著下跌5.8分。然後是李慧琼和梁美芬，分別得32.2及25.9分。在最新調查中，楊岳橋得44.8分，較上次調查顯著下跌8.7分，但由於認知率較低而被剔除。另外，梁美芬和楊岳橋的評分均創其2017年首次被評分以來新低。
須要說明，躋身「五大議員」的先決條件是巿民的熟悉程度，然後再按支持度排名。「五大」以外的議員，支持度可以很高或很低，但由於並非巿民最熟悉的議員，所以不在榜內。
政治團體民望
在提名調查中，被訪者可在未經提示下說出最多10個最熟悉的政治團體，結果首12位最多被訪者提及的政治團體分別是民主黨、民建聯、公民黨、工聯會、自由黨、新民黨、社民連、工黨、人民力量、熱血公民、經民聯及新民主同盟，他們於是被納入評分調查。在評分調查中，被訪者就個別政治團體以0至100分進行評分，0分代表絕對不支持，100分代表絕對支持，50分為一半半。統計結果後，認知度最低的兩個再被剔除，之後再按支持度由高至低順序排列，得出十大政治團體。以下是十大政治團體的最新評分，按評分倒序排列[8]：
| 調查日期 | 23-25/4/19 | 3-4/9/19 | 16-17/4/20 | 21-22/10/20 | 最新變化 | |
| 樣本數目[9] | 537-698 | 536 | 500 | 510 | -- | |
| 回應比率 | 66.1% | 69.9% | 61.6% | 65.9% | -- | |
| 最新結果[10] | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | 認知率 | -- |
| 人民力量 | 37.7{10} | 42.5{5}[11] | 40.0{4} | 42.9+/-2.9{1} | 82.4% | +2.9 |
| 民主黨 | 42.2{2} | 44.6{4} | 42.9{2} | 42.5+/-2.6{2} | 92.0% | -0.4 |
| 社民連 | 38.1{9} | 39.5{6} | 39.0{6} | 40.7+/-2.6{3} | 82.1% | +1.7 |
| 公民黨 | 46.6{1} | 45.1{3} | 39.4{5}[11] | 39.3+/-2.7{4} | 84.4% | -0.1 |
| 工黨 | 41.3{5} | 37.9[11] [13] | 35.8[13] | 36.8+/-2.7{5} | 70.7% | +1.0 |
| 熱血公民 | -- | -- | -- | 35.6+/-2.8{6} | 75.6% | -- |
| 自由黨 | 41.9{4}[11] | 37.6{7}[11] | 37.7{7} | 33.6+/-2.3{7} | 82.7% | -4.1[11] |
| 新民黨 | 38.9{7}[11] | 28.8{8}[11] | 29.7{10} | 27.8+/-2.7{8} | 80.4% | -1.9 |
| 民建聯 | 38.7{8}[11] | 26.8{10}[11] | 35.2{8}[11] | 27.4+/-2.8{9} | 91.8% | -7.8[11] |
| 工聯會 | 42.2{3}[11] | 28.5{9}[11] | 32.0{9} | 27.4+/-2.7{10} | 89.8% | -4.6[11] |
| 新民主同盟 | -- | -- | -- | 38.4+/-3.0[13] | 62.3% | -- |
| 經民聯 | 35.1[13] | -- | 29.6[13] | 25.3+/-2.8[13] | 69.8% | -4.3[11] |
| 香港眾志 | 38.2[13] | 45.2{2}[11] | 43.1{1} | -- | -- | -- |
| 民協 | 40.7{6} | -- | 41.6{3} | -- | -- | -- |
| 民陣 | -- | 51.2{1} | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 職工盟 | -- | 38.6[13] | -- | -- | -- | -- |
[8] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
[9] 民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字，2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。
[10] 括弧{ }內數字為排名。
[11] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
[12] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，是由於加權方法改變。如果以舊有加權方法處理數據，則差異並未超過抽樣誤差。
[13] 於評分調查認知率較低。
最新調查顯示，市民對政治團體的最新支持度排名，首位是人民力量，得42.9分；第二至六位是民主黨、社民連、公民黨、工黨和熱血公民，分別得42.5、40.7、39.3、36.8及35.6分；自由黨、新民黨、民建聯和工聯會分別排第七至十位，得33.6、27.8、27.4及27.4分。在最新調查中，新民主同盟和經民聯分別得38.4及25.3分，但由於認知率較低而被剔除。相比六個月前，民建聯、工聯會、經民聯和自由黨的評分顯著下跌。人民力量和熱血公民的評分是其分別於2011和2016年首次被評分以來新高，社民連的評分亦創2014年以來新高。相反，工聯會、自由黨、公民黨、新民黨和經民聯的評分是其分別於1991、1993、2006、2011和2017年首次被評分以來新低。
須要說明，躋身「十大政團」的先決條件是巿民的熟悉程度，然後再按支持度排名。「十大」以外的政治團體，支持度可以很高或很低，但由於並非巿民最熟悉的政團，所以不在榜內。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事紀錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為1-2/4/2020，而今次調查日期則為19-22/10/2020，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 21/10/20 | 國泰航空大規模裁員，停運國泰港龍 |
| 12/10/20 | 林鄭月娥押後施政報告 |
| 10/10/20 | 警方以涉嫌協助現被關押深圳的12名港人偷渡拘捕9人 |
| 6/10/20 | 教育局以專業失德為由取消一名小學教師註冊 |
| 1/10/20 | 警方於銅鑼灣等各區拘捕最少86名示威者 |
| 29/9/20 | 民主派公布立法會議員去留問題民意調查結果 |
| 22/9/20 | 警方修改《警察通例》下「傳媒代表」定義 |
| 14/9/20 | 178萬人參與普及社區檢測計劃，發現32宗新個案 |
| 12/9/20 | 12名香港青年被扣押深圳逾兩周，被捕人士家屬召開記者會 |
| 11/9/20 | 死因庭陪審團裁定陳彥霖死因存疑 |
| 10/9/20 | 警方以在買賣壹傳媒股票時涉嫌詐騙及洗黑錢拘捕15人 |
| 3/9/20 | 普及社區檢測計劃從已驗的12.8萬個樣本中找出兩宗新個案 |
| 27/8/20 | 中國海警於8月23日截獲赴台快艇，拘捕12名香港青年 |
| 26/8/20 | 警方就7．21事件以暴動罪拘捕13名白衣人以外人士 |
| 11/8/20 | 人大常委決定現屆立法會繼續履行職責不少於一年 |
| 10/8/20 | 警方引用國安法搜查壹傳媒，並拘捕黎智英及周庭等人 |
| 8/8/20 | 香港政府發表聲明譴責美國制裁11名中港官員 |
| 31/7/20 | 政府押後立法會選舉一年 |
| 30/7/20 | 12名民主派人士被裁定立法會選舉提名無效 |
| 29/7/20 | 全日禁止堂食規定實施，不少人於街邊用膳 |
| 28/7/20 | 香港大學校務委員會決定即時解僱戴耀廷 |
| 4/7/20 | 公共圖書館將最少9本政治書下架等候覆檢 |
| 3/7/20 | 中央及特區政府公布多項關於國安法的人事任命 |
| 1/7/20 | 七一示威中十人被指違反國安法被捕 |
| 30/6/20 | 國安法獲通過並生效 |
| 8/6/20 | 政府公布發放一萬元現金安排 |
| 4/6/20 | 六四悼念活動於多區進行 |
| 29/5/20 | 特朗普公布有關中國及香港的新措施，並指中國以「一國一制」取代「一國兩制」 |
| 27/5/20 | 反國歌法及國安法示威中逾360人被捕 |
| 24/5/20 | 反國安法遊行於港島舉行，逾180人被捕 |
| 18/5/20 | 李慧琼當選立法會內會主席 |
| 15/5/20 | 監警會發表報告指沒有任何證據顯示8.31太子站事件中有人死亡 |
| 8/5/20 | 立法會內會發生衝突，11名民主派議員被逐離場 |
| 21/4/20 | 政府公布多名新局長任命 |
| 21/4/20 | 港澳辦刊登多篇聲明批評郭榮鏗 |
| 18/4/20 | 李柱銘、黎智英等15名民主派人士被捕 |
| 13/4/20 | 港澳辦及中聯辦批評立法會議員郭榮鏗 |
| 9/4/20 | 政府推出800億「保就業」措施 |
| 8/4/20 | 政府宣布逾1,300億紓困措施抗疫 |
數據分析
立法會議員民望方面，6位最多人認識的議員分別是楊岳橋、李慧琼、毛孟靜、鄺俊宇、涂謹申和梁美芬，支持度排首位是鄺俊宇，得57.3分。第二至三位是涂謹申和毛孟靜，分別得46.4及44.7分，當中毛孟靜的評分較上次調查顯著下跌5.8分。然後是李慧琼和梁美芬，分別得32.2及25.9分。楊岳橋得44.8分，較上次調查顯著下跌8.7分，但由於認知率較低而被剔除。梁美芬和楊岳橋的評分均創其2017年首次被評分以來新低。
政治團體民望方面，人民力量以42.9分首次奪得首位；第二至六位是民主黨、社民連、公民黨、工黨和熱血公民，分別得42.5、40.7、39.3、36.8及35.6分；自由黨、新民黨、民建聯和工聯會分別排第七至十位，得33.6、27.8、27.4及27.4分。新民主同盟和經民聯分別得38.4及25.3分，但由於認知率較低而被剔除。相比六個月前，民建聯、工聯會、經民聯和自由黨的評分顯著下跌。人民力量和熱血公民的評分是其分別於2011和2016年首次被評分以來新高，社民連的評分亦創2014年以來新高。相反，工聯會、自由黨、公民黨、新民黨和經民聯的評分是其分別於1991、1993、2006、2011和2017年首次被評分以來新低。
Nov 3, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Press Release on November 3, 2020
POP releases popularity of Legislative Councillors and political groups
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,002, 504 and 510 Hong Kong residents respectively by random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers in October. Our surveys show that Alvin Yeung, Starry Lee, Claudia Mo, Roy Kwong, James To and Priscilla Leung are the six Legislative Councillors that top people’s mind now. In terms of rating, Roy Kwong tops the list with 57.3 marks. James To and Claudia Mo rank the 2nd and 3rd with 46.4 and 44.7 marks respectively while the latter’s rating has dropped significantly by 5.8 marks compared with the last survey. Starry Lee and Priscilla Leung follow behind with 32.2 and 25.9 marks respectively. Alvin Yeung obtains a rating of 44.8 marks, registering a significant drop of 8.7 marks compared with the last survey, and is dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. Meanwhile, the ratings of Priscilla Leung and Alvin Yeung have registered record lows since they were first rated in 2017. Regarding the popularity of political groups, People Power topped the list with 42.9 marks for the first time. Democratic Party, LSD, Civic Party, Labour Party and Civic Passion rank the 2nd to 6th with 42.5, 40.7, 39.3, 36.8 and 35.6 marks correspondingly. The 7th to 10th ranks go to Liberal Party, New People’s Party, DAB and FTU which attain 33.6, 27.8, 27.4 and 27.4 marks respectively. Neo Democrats and BPA obtain support ratings of 38.4 and 25.3 marks respectively, but they are dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. Compared to six months ago, the ratings of DAB, FTU, BPA and Liberal Party have dropped significantly. The ratings of People Power and Civic Passion register record highs since they were first rated in 2011 and 2016 respectively, while that of LSD also registers record high since 2014. On the other hand, the ratings of FTU, Liberal Party, Civic Party, New People’s Party and BPA register record lows since they were first rated in 1991, 1993, 2006, 2011 and 2017 respectively. The effective response rates of the Legislative Councillors and political groups rating surveys are 58.3% and 65.9% respectively. The maximum sampling error of ratings is +/-3.4 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Legislative Councillors naming stage |
Legislative Councillors rating stage & Political groups naming stage |
Political groups rating stage |
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| Date of survey | : | 5-8/10/2020 | 19-20/10/2020 | 21-22/10/2020 |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,002 (including 492 landline and 510 mobile samples) | 504 (including 250 landline and 254 mobile samples) | 510 (including 255 landline and 255 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 62.8% | 58.3% | 65.9% |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers | ||
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above | ||
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of ratings not more than +/-3.4 at 95% conf. level | ||
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. | ||
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Popularity of Legislative Councillors
In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 councillors whom they knew best. Alvin Yeung, Starry Lee, Claudia Mo, Roy Kwong, James To and Priscilla Leung were the top 6 councillors mentioned most frequently, they therefore entered the rating survey. In the rating survey, respondents were asked to rate individual councillors using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings to become the top 5 Legislative Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 Legislative Councillors are summarized below, in descending order of support ratings[3]:
| Date of survey | 21-23/10/19 | 7-8/1/20 | 1-2/4/20 | 19-20/10/20 | Latest change | |
| Sample size[4] | 526 | 507 | 500 | 504 | -- | |
| Response rate | 63.4% | 70.4% | 68.1% | 58.3% | -- | |
| Latest findings[5] | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | Recognition rate | -- |
| Roy Kwong | 59.0{1} | 64.3{1}[6] | 60.4{1} | 57.3+/-3.4{1} | 79.1% | -3.2 |
| James To | -- | -- | -- | 46.4+/-2.9{2} | 84.5% | -- |
| Claudia Mo | 48.8{3} | 54.0{4}[6] | 50.5{4} | 44.7+/-3.1{3} | 86.8% | -5.8[6] |
| Starry Lee | 25.3{4}[6] | 28.6{5} | 32.8{5}[6] | 32.2+/-3.2{4} | 90.0% | -0.6 |
| Priscilla Leung | -- | -- | -- | 25.9+/-3.0{5} | 82.0% | -- |
| Alvin Yeung | 57.7[7] | 56.7[7] | 53.5{2} | 44.8+/-3.2[7] | 78.4% | -8.7[6] |
| Eddie Chu | -- | -- | 52.6{3} | -- | -- | -- |
| Jeremy Tam | -- | -- | 56.1[7] | -- | -- | -- |
| Lam Cheuk-ting | -- | 56.6{2} | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Tanya Chan | 52.3{2} | 56.5{3} | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Junius Ho | 17.1{5} | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
[3] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[4] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[5] Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings.
[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[7] Recognition rates were comparatively low in the rating survey.
The latest survey shows that Roy Kwong is the most popularly supported councillor, attaining 57.3 marks. James To and Claudia Mo rank the 2nd and 3rd with 46.4 and 44.7 marks respectively. The latter’s rating has dropped significantly by 5.8 marks compared with the last survey. Starry Lee and Priscilla Leung follow behind with 32.2 and 25.9 marks respectively. In this latest survey, Alvin Yeung obtains a rating of 44.8 marks, registering a significant drop of 8.7 marks compared with the last survey, but is dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. Meanwhile, the ratings of Priscilla Leung and Alvin Yeung have registered record lows since they were first rated in 2017.
It should be noted, however, that our list of “top 5” only includes LegCo members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list.
Popularity of Political Groups
In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Party, Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), Civic Party, Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU), Liberal Party, New People’s Party, League of Social Democrats (LSD), Labour Party, People Power, Civic Passion, Business and Professionals Alliance for Hong Kong (BPA) and Neo Democrats were the top 12 political groups mentioned most frequently, they therefore entered the rating survey. In the rating survey, respondents were asked to rate individual political groups using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom two political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings to become the top 10 political groups. Recent ratings of the top 10 political groups are summarized below, in descending order of support ratings[8]:
| Date of survey | 23-25/4/19 | 3-4/9/19 | 16-17/4/20 | 21-22/10/20 | Latest change | |
| Sample size[9] | 537-698 | 536 | 500 | 510 | -- | |
| Response rate | 66.1% | 69.9% | 61.6% | 65.9% | -- | |
| Latest findings[10] | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | Recognition rate | -- |
| People Power | 37.7{10} | 42.5{5}[11] | 40.0{4} | 42.9+/-2.9{1} | 82.4% | +2.9 |
| Democratic Party | 42.2{2} | 44.6{4} | 42.9{2} | 42.5+/-2.6{2} | 92.0% | -0.4 |
| LSD | 38.1{9} | 39.5{6} | 39.0{6} | 40.7+/-2.6{3} | 82.1% | +1.7 |
| Civic Party | 46.6{1} | 45.1{3} | 39.4{5}[11] | 39.3+/-2.7{4} | 84.4% | -0.1 |
| Labour Party | 41.3{5} | 37.9[11] [13] | 35.8[13] | 36.8+/-2.7{5} | 70.7% | +1.0 |
| Civic Passion | -- | -- | -- | 35.6+/-2.8{6} | 75.6% | -- |
| Liberal Party | 41.9{4}[11] | 37.6{7}[11] | 37.7{7} | 33.6+/-2.3{7} | 82.7% | -4.1[11] |
| New People’s Party | 38.9{7}[11] | 28.8{8}[11] | 29.7{10} | 27.8+/-2.7{8} | 80.4% | -1.9 |
| DAB | 38.7{8}[11] | 26.8{10}[11] | 35.2{8}[11] | 27.4+/-2.8{9} | 91.8% | -7.8[11] |
| FTU | 42.2{3}[11] | 28.5{9}[11] | 32.0{9} | 27.4+/-2.7{10} | 89.8% | -4.6[11] |
| Neo Democrats | -- | -- | -- | 38.4+/-3.0[13] | 62.3% | -- |
| BPA | 35.1[13] | -- | 29.6[13] | 25.3+/-2.8[13] | 69.8% | -4.3[11] |
| Demosistō | 38.2[13] | 45.2{2}[11] | 43.1{1} | -- | -- | -- |
| ADPL | 40.7{6} | -- | 41.6{3} | -- | -- | -- |
| CHRF | -- | 51.2{1} | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| HKCTU | -- | 38.6[13] | -- | -- | -- | -- |
[8] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[9] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[10] Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings.
[11] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[12] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level because of a change in the weighting method. If the previous weighting method was used, the difference would not have gone beyond the sampling error.
[13] Recognition rates were comparatively low in the rating survey.
The latest survey shows that People Power tops the list and becomes the most popularly supported political group, attaining 42.9 marks. Democratic Party, LSD, Civic Party, Labour Party and Civic Passion rank the 2nd to 6th with 42.5, 40.7, 39.3, 36.8 and 35.6 marks correspondingly. The 7th to 10th ranks go to Liberal Party, New People’s Party, DAB and FTU which attain 33.6, 27.8, 27.4 and 27.4 marks respectively. In this latest survey, Neo Democrats and BPA obtain support ratings of 38.4 and 25.3 marks respectively, but they are dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. Compared to six months ago, the ratings of DAB, FTU, BPA and Liberal Party have dropped significantly. The ratings of People Power and Civic Passion register record highs since they were first rated in 2011 and 2016 respectively, while that of LSD also registers record high since 2014. On the other hand, the ratings of FTU, Liberal Party, Civic Party, New People’s Party and BPA register record lows since they were first rated in 1991, 1993, 2006, 2011 and 2017 respectively.
It should be noted, however, that our list of “top 10” only includes political groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 1 to 2 April, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 19 to 22 October, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 21/10/20 | Cathay Pacific announces massive lay-offs and closes Cathay Dragon. |
| 12/10/20 | Carrie Lam postpones Policy Address. |
| 10/10/20 | Police arrests 9 people on suspicion of helping the 12 Hong Kong people now being detained in Shenzhen flee Hong Kong. |
| 6/10/20 | The Education Bureau deregisters a primary school teacher for professional misconduct. |
| 1/10/20 | Police arrests at least 86 protesters in various districts including Causeway Bay. |
| 29/9/20 | Democrats announce survey results on whether Legislative Councillors should stay or go. |
| 22/9/20 | Police changes the definition of “media representatives” under the Police General Orders. |
| 14/9/20 | The Universal Community Testing Programme ends with 1.78 million people participated and 32 new cases found. |
| 12/9/20 | Twelve Hong Kong youngsters have been detained in Shenzhen for over two weeks. Their family members hold a press conference. |
| 11/9/20 | The jury in the Coroner’s Court returns an open verdict in the death of Chan Yin-lam. |
| 10/9/20 | Police arrests 15 people on suspicion of defrauding and money laundering by trading Next Digital shares. |
| 3/9/20 | The Universal Community Testing Programme locates two new cases among about 128,000 tests conducted. |
| 27/8/20 | China Coast Guard intercepted a speedboat to Taiwan on August 23 and arrested 12 young Hong Kong people. |
| 26/8/20 | Police arrests 13 people who were not “people in white” for rioting in the 7.21 incident. |
| 11/8/20 | The NPCSC decides that the current Legislative Council shall continue to discharge duties for no less than one year. |
| 10/8/20 | Police searches Next Media and arrests Jimmy Lai, Agnes Chow and other people under national security law. |
| 8/8/20 | The Hong Kong government issues statement condemning US sanction on 11 Chinese or Hong Kong government officials. |
| 31/7/20 | The government postpones the Legislative Council election for a year. |
| 30/7/20 | Nominations of 12 democrats for Legislative Council election are invalidated. |
| 29/7/20 | All-day dine-in ban takes effect, forcing people to eat in the streets. |
| 28/7/20 | HKU Council decides to dismiss Benny Tai with immediate effect. |
| 4/7/20 | Nine books related to politics are taken off shelf in public libraries and put under review. |
| 3/7/20 | The Central Government and the SAR Government announce multiple personnel appointments concerning the national security law. |
| 1/7/20 | Ten people are arrested for allegedly violating the national security law in the July 1 protest. |
| 30/6/20 | The national security law is passed and comes into effect. |
| 8/6/20 | The government announces the arrangements for $10,000 cash payout. |
| 4/6/20 | June 4 vigils are held in various districts. |
| 29/5/20 | Donald Trump announces new measures toward China and Hong Kong and says China has replaced one country, two systems with one country, one system. |
| 27/5/20 | Over 360 people are arrested in protests against the National Anthem Bill and the national security law. |
| 24/5/20 | People rally against the national security law on Hong Kong Island. Over 180 people are arrested. |
| 18/5/20 | Starry Lee Wai-king is elected the chairperson of the House Committee of the Legislative Council. |
| 15/5/20 | Independent Police Complaints Council releases a report saying there is no evidence of casualties in the Prince Edward MTR incident on August 31. |
| 8/5/20 | Eleven democrats get thrown out after conflicts occur in a meeting of the House Committee of the Legislative Council. |
| 21/4/20 | The government announces the appointment of five Directors of Bureaux. |
| 21/4/20 | The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office issues multiple statements to criticize Dennis Kwok. |
| 18/4/20 | 15 pan-democrats including Martin Lee and Jimmy Lai are arrested. |
| 13/4/20 | The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and the Liaison Office criticize Legislative Councillor Dennis Kwok. |
| 9/4/20 | The government launches a subsidy scheme involving $80 billion to keep workers in employment. |
| 8/4/20 | The government announces relief measures involving over $130 billion to combat the pandemic. |
Data Analysis
Regarding the popularity of Legislative Councillors, Alvin Yeung, Starry Lee, Claudia Mo, Roy Kwong, James To and Priscilla Leung are the six councillors that top people’s mind now. In terms of rating, Roy Kwong tops the list with 57.3 marks. James To and Claudia Mo rank the 2nd and 3rd with 46.4 and 44.7 marks respectively while the latter’s rating has dropped significantly by 5.8 marks compared with the last survey. Starry Lee and Priscilla Leung follow behind with 32.2 and 25.9 marks respectively. Alvin Yeung obtains a rating of 44.8 marks, registering a significant drop of 8.7 marks compared with the last survey, and is dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. Meanwhile, the ratings of Priscilla Leung and Alvin Yeung have registered record lows since they were first rated in 2017.
Regarding the popularity of political groups, People Power topped the list with 42.9 marks for the first time. Democratic Party, LSD, Civic Party, Labour Party and Civic Passion rank the 2nd to 6th with 42.5, 40.7, 39.3, 36.8 and 35.6 marks correspondingly. The 7th to 10th ranks go to Liberal Party, New People’s Party, DAB and FTU which attain 33.6, 27.8, 27.4 and 27.4 marks respectively. Neo Democrats and BPA obtain support ratings of 38.4 and 25.3 marks respectively, but they are dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. Compared to six months ago, the ratings of DAB, FTU, BPA and Liberal Party have dropped significantly. The ratings of People Power and Civic Passion register record highs since they were first rated in 2011 and 2016 respectively, while that of LSD also registers record high since 2014. On the other hand, the ratings of FTU, Liberal Party, Civic Party, New People’s Party and BPA register record lows since they were first rated in 1991, 1993, 2006, 2011 and 2017 respectively.
