2020年11月10日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
2020年11月10日 新聞公報
民研計劃發放台灣及西藏問題調查結果
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於十月下旬由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,020名香港居民。調查顯示，香港市民對兩岸統一有信心的淨值較上次歷史低位顯著回升17個百分點至負36。國際空間方面，贊成台灣重新加入聯合國的淨值為正26個百分點，較上次歷史高位顯著下滑10個百分點。台灣獨立方面，分別各有41%表示贊成和反對。另外，認為「一國兩制」適用於台灣的淨值為負45個百分點。至於西藏問題方面，贊成西藏獨立的淨值為負13個百分點。調查的實效回應比率為62.2%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 19-22/10/2020 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,020 (包括508個固網及512個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 62.2% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7% |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一九年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2019年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
市民對台灣及西藏問題意見的最新結果表列如下：
| 調查日期 | 6-9/8/18 | 7-11/1/19 | 2-8/7/19 | 3-8/1/20 | 19-22/10/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目[3] | 553-612 | 505-550 | 575-648 | 585-657 | 593-629 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 51.2% | 55.6% | 67.4% | 72.0% | 62.2% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 兩岸統一信心正面比率 | 35% | 28%[4] | 27% | 19%[4] | 26+/-4% | +6%[4] |
| 兩岸統一信心負面比率 | 56%[4] [5] | 60% | 65% | 72%[4] | 61+/-4% | -11%[4] |
| 信心淨值 | -22% | -33%[4] | -38% | -53%[4] | -36+/-7% | +17%[4] |
| 贊成台灣重新加入聯合國比率 | 59% | 54% | 57% | 63% | 53+/-4% | -10%[4] |
| 反對台灣重新加入聯合國比率 | 29% | 29% | 27% | 26% | 27+/-4% | -- |
| 贊成淨值 | 30% | 25% | 31% | 36% | 26+/-7% | -10%[4] |
| 贊成台灣獨立比率 | 34% | 35% | 44%[4] | 48% | 41+/-4% | -7%[4] |
| 反對台灣獨立比率 | 54% | 50% | 44%[4] | 39%[4] | 41+/-4% | +2% |
| 贊成淨值 | -20% | -16% | 0%[4] | 9% | 0+/-7% | -9% |
| 認為一國兩制適用於台灣的比率 | 35% | 29%[4] | 27% | 21%[4] | 18+/-3% | -3% |
| 認為一國兩制不適用於台灣的比率 | 50% | 59%[4] | 63% | 66% | 63+/-4% | -3% |
| 適用淨值 | -14% | -30%[4] | -36% | -45% | -45+/-6% | -- |
| 贊成西藏獨立比率 | 19% | 19% | 26%[4] | 34%[4] | 28+/-4% | -5% |
| 反對西藏獨立比率 | 63% | 58% | 53% | 46%[4] | 41+/-4% | -5% |
| 贊成淨值 | -44% | -39% | -27%[4] | -13%[4] | -13+/-7% | -- |
[3] 民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字，2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。
[4] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
[5] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，是由於加權方法改變。如果以舊有加權方法處理數據，則差異並未超過抽樣誤差。
最新調查顯示，26%被訪的香港市民表示對兩岸統一有信心，61%表示沒有信心，信心淨值較上次歷史低位顯著回升17個百分點至負36。國際空間方面，53%贊成台灣重新加入聯合國，反對的佔27%，贊成淨值為正26個百分點，較上次歷史高位顯著下滑10個百分點。台灣獨立方面，分別各有41%表示贊成和反對。另外，18%認為「一國兩制」適用於台灣，認為不適用的佔63%，適用淨值為負45個百分點。至於西藏問題方面，41%被訪的香港市民反對西藏獨立，贊成者佔28%，贊成淨值為負13個百分點。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的調查項目，上次調查日期為3-8/1/2020，而今次調查日期則為19-22/10/2020，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 14/10/20 | 習近平於深圳發表演說 |
| 12/10/20 | 林鄭月娥押後施政報告 |
| 10/10/20 | 警方以涉嫌協助現被關押深圳的12名港人偷渡拘捕9人 |
| 6/10/20 | 教育局以專業失德為由取消一名小學教師註冊 |
| 1/10/20 | 警方於銅鑼灣等各區拘捕最少86名示威者 |
| 30/9/20 | 駱惠寧、董建華及香港高官慶祝中華人民共和國成立七十一周年 |
| 22/9/20 | 警方修改《警察通例》下「傳媒代表」定義 |
| 14/9/20 | 178萬人參與普及社區檢測計劃，發現32宗新個案 |
| 11/9/20 | 死因庭陪審團裁定陳彥霖死因存疑 |
| 10/9/20 | 警方以在買賣壹傳媒股票時涉嫌詐騙及洗黑錢拘捕15人 |
| 27/8/20 | 中國海警於8月23日截獲赴台快艇，拘捕12名香港青年 |
| 26/8/20 | 警方就7．21事件以暴動罪拘捕13名白衣人以外人士 |
| 11/8/20 | 人大常委決定現屆立法會繼續履行職責不少於一年 |
| 10/8/20 | 警方引用國安法搜查壹傳媒，並拘捕黎智英及周庭等人 |
| 8/8/20 | 香港政府發表聲明譴責美國制裁11名中港官員 |
| 6/8/20 | 美國擴大「乾淨網絡」計劃，進一步限制中國科技公司 |
| 31/7/20 | 政府押後立法會選舉一年 |
| 30/7/20 | 12名民主派人士被裁定立法會選舉提名無效 |
| 29/7/20 | 全日禁止堂食規定實施，不少人於街邊用膳 |
| 28/7/20 | 香港大學校務委員會決定即時解僱戴耀廷 |
| 27/7/20 | 政府收緊限聚令至2人並宣布全日禁止堂食 |
| 24/7/20 | 美國國務卿蓬佩奧發表對華政策演說，中國要求美國關閉駐成都總領事館 |
| 22/7/20 | 美國要求中國72小時內關閉駐休斯敦總領事館 |
| 15/7/20 | 美國總統特朗普簽署《香港自治法案》 |
| 4/7/20 | 公共圖書館將最少9本政治書下架等候覆檢 |
| 1/7/20 | 七一示威中十人被指違反國安法被捕 |
| 30/6/20 | 國安法獲通過並生效 |
| 6/6/20 | 高雄市民投票通過罷免市長韓國瑜 |
| 4/6/20 | 六四悼念活動於多區進行 |
| 29/5/20 | 特朗普公布有關中國及香港的新措施，並指中國以「一國一制」取代「一國兩制」 |
| 27/5/20 | 反國歌法及國安法示威中逾360人被捕 |
| 24/5/20 | 反國安法遊行於港島舉行，逾180人被捕 |
| 20/5/20 | 台灣總統蔡英文宣誓就職 |
| 21/4/20 | 港澳辦刊登多篇聲明批評郭榮鏗 |
| 18/4/20 | 李柱銘、黎智英等15名民主派人士被捕 |
| 15/4/20 | 中聯辦主任駱惠寧指香港要維護國家安全 |
| 13/4/20 | 港澳辦及中聯辦批評立法會議員郭榮鏗 |
| 27/3/20 | 政府宣布禁4人以上公眾聚會 |
| 17/3/20 | 政府宣布所有海外國家來港人士需隔離14日 |
| 28/2/20 | 警方拘捕黎智英、李卓人及楊森 |
| 6/2/20 | 市民搶購生活必需品 |
| 31/1/20 | 政府拒絕全面封關 |
| 29/1/20 | 口罩供應短缺並出現搶購潮 |
| 21/1/20 | 武漢肺炎繼續急速擴散並傳入台灣 |
| 11/1/20 | 蔡英文勝出台灣總統選舉 |
數據分析
台灣及西藏問題調查顯示，香港市民對兩岸統一有信心的淨值較上次歷史低位顯著回升17個百分點至負36。國際空間方面，贊成台灣重新加入聯合國的淨值為正26個百分點，較上次歷史高位顯著下滑10個百分點。台灣獨立方面，分別各有41%表示贊成和反對。另外，認為「一國兩制」適用於台灣的淨值為負45個百分點。至於西藏問題方面，贊成西藏獨立的淨值為負13個百分點。
Nov 10, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Press Release on November 10, 2020
POP releases survey results on Taiwan and Tibetan issues
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,020 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in the second half of October. Our survey shows that Hong Kong people’s net confidence in the ultimate reunification across the strait has rebounded significantly from the historical low last time by 17 percentage points to negative 36. Regarding international space, net support in Taiwan’s rejoining the United Nations stands at positive 26 percentage points, which has dropped significantly from the historical high last time by 10 percentage points. As for the independence of Taiwan, 41% each showed support and opposition respectively. Meanwhile, net value in believing “one country, two systems” was applicable to Taiwan stands at negative 45 percentage points. Regarding Tibetan issues, net support in the independence of Tibet stands at negative 13 percentage points. The effective response rate of the survey is 62.2%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4% and that of net values is +/-7% at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 19-22/10/2020 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,020 (including 508 landline and 512 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 62.2% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and that of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
People’s latest views towards various Taiwan and Tibetan issues are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 6-9/8/18 | 7-11/1/19 | 2-8/7/19 | 3-8/1/20 | 19-22/10/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size[3] | 553-612 | 505-550 | 575-648 | 585-657 | 593-629 | -- |
| Response rate | 51.2% | 55.6% | 67.4% | 72.0% | 62.2% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Confidence in cross-strait reunification | 35% | 28%[4] | 27% | 19%[4] | 26+/-4% | +6%[4] |
| No confidence in cross-strait reunification | 56%[4] [5] | 60% | 65% | 72%[4] | 61+/-4% | -11%[4] |
| Net confidence | -22% | -33%[4] | -38% | -53%[4] | -36+/-7% | +17%[4] |
| Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Support rate | 59% | 54% | 57% | 63% | 53+/-4% | -10%[4] |
| Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Opposition rate | 29% | 29% | 27% | 26% | 27+/-4% | -- |
| Net support | 30% | 25% | 31% | 36% | 26+/-7% | -10%[4] |
| Taiwan independence: Support rate | 34% | 35% | 44%[4] | 48% | 41+/-4% | -7%[4] |
| Taiwan independence: Opposition rate | 54% | 50% | 44%[4] | 39%[4] | 41+/-4% | +2% |
| Net support | -20% | -16% | 0%[4] | 9% | 0+/-7% | -9% |
| Believe “one country, two systems” is applicable to Taiwan | 35% | 29%[4] | 27% | 21%[4] | 18+/-3% | -3% |
| Believe “one country, two systems” is not applicable to Taiwan | 50% | 59%[4] | 63% | 66% | 63+/-4% | -3% |
| Net value of applicability | -14% | -30%[4] | -36% | -45% | -45+/-6% | -- |
| Tibet independence: Support rate | 19% | 19% | 26%[4] | 34%[4] | 28+/-4% | -5% |
| Tibet independence: Opposition rate | 63% | 58% | 53% | 46%[4] | 41+/-4% | -5% |
| Net support | -44% | -39% | -27%[4] | -13%[4] | -13+/-7% | -- |
[3] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level because of a change in the weighting method. If the previous weighting method was used, the difference would not have gone beyond the sampling error.
The latest survey reveals that 26% of Hong Kong people interviewed were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait while 61% expressed no confidence. Net confidence has rebounded significantly from the historical low last time by 17 percentage points to negative 36. Regarding international space, 53% supported Taiwan’s rejoining the United Nations while 27% opposed that. Net support stands at positive 26 percentage points, which has dropped significantly from the historical high last time by 10 percentage points. As for the independence of Taiwan, 41% each showed support and opposition respectively. Meanwhile, 18% believed “one country, two systems” was applicable to Taiwan while 63% believed it was not. Net value of applicability stands at negative 45 percentage points. Regarding Tibetan issues, 41% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Tibet whereas 28% showed support. Net support stands at negative 13 percentage points.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 3 to 8 January, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 19 to 22 October, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 14/10/20 | Xi Jinping delivers a speech in Shenzhen. |
| 12/10/20 | Carrie Lam postpones Policy Address. |
| 10/10/20 | Police arrests 9 people on suspicion of helping the 12 Hong Kong people now being detained in Shenzhen flee Hong Kong. |
| 6/10/20 | The Education Bureau deregisters a primary school teacher for professional misconduct. |
| 1/10/20 | Police arrests at least 86 protesters in various districts including Causeway Bay. |
| 30/9/20 | Luo Huining, Tung Chee-hwa and principal officials of Hong Kong celebrates the 71st anniversary of the founding of the PRC. |
| 22/9/20 | Police changes the definition of “media representatives” under the Police General Orders. |
| 14/9/20 | The Universal Community Testing Programme ends with 1.78 million people participated and 32 new cases found. |
| 11/9/20 | The jury in the Coroner’s Court returns an open verdict in the death of Chan Yin-lam. |
| 10/9/20 | Police arrests 15 people on suspicion of defrauding and money laundering by trading Next Digital shares. |
| 27/8/20 | China Coast Guard intercepted a speedboat to Taiwan on August 23 and arrested 12 young Hong Kong people. |
| 26/8/20 | Police arrests 13 people who were not “people in white” for rioting in the 7.21 incident. |
| 11/8/20 | The NPCSC decides that the current Legislative Council shall continue to discharge duties for no less than one year. |
| 10/8/20 | Police searches Next Media and arrests Jimmy Lai, Agnes Chow and other people under national security law. |
| 8/8/20 | The Hong Kong government issues statement condemning US sanction on 11 Chinese or Hong Kong government officials. |
| 6/8/20 | The US expands the “Clean Network” to further limit Chinese technology firms. |
| 31/7/20 | The government postpones the Legislative Council election for a year. |
| 30/7/20 | Nominations of 12 democrats for Legislative Council election are invalidated. |
| 29/7/20 | All-day dine-in ban takes effect, forcing people to eat in the streets. |
| 28/7/20 | HKU Council decides to dismiss Benny Tai with immediate effect. |
| 27/7/20 | The government tightens restrictions of group gatherings to 2 people and imposes all-day dine-in ban. |
| 24/7/20 | US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivers a speech on China policy, while China orders the US to close its consulate in Chengdu. |
| 22/7/20 | The US orders China to close its consulate in Houston within 72 hours. |
| 15/7/20 | US President Donald Trump signs the Hong Kong Autonomy Act. |
| 4/7/20 | Nine books related to politics are taken off shelf in public libraries and put under review. |
| 1/7/20 | Ten people are arrested for allegedly violating the national security law in the July 1 protest. |
| 30/6/20 | The national security law is passed and comes into effect. |
| 6/6/20 | Kaohsiung residents voted to recall mayor Han Kuo-yu. |
| 4/6/20 | June 4 vigils are held in various districts. |
| 29/5/20 | Donald Trump announces new measures toward China and Hong Kong and says China has replaced one country, two systems with one country, one system. |
| 27/5/20 | Over 360 people are arrested in protests against the National Anthem Bill and the national security law. |
| 24/5/20 | People rally against the national security law on Hong Kong Island. Over 180 people are arrested. |
| 20/5/20 | Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen is sworn into office. |
| 21/4/20 | The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office issues multiple statements to criticize Dennis Kwok. |
| 18/4/20 | 15 pan-democrats including Martin Lee and Jimmy Lai are arrested. |
| 15/4/20 | Director of the Liaison Office Luo Huining says Hong Kong needs to safeguard national security. |
| 13/4/20 | The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and the Liaison Office criticize Legislative Councillor Dennis Kwok. |
| 27/3/20 | The government announces the ban on gathering with more than 4 people. |
| 17/3/20 | The government announces people entering Hong Kong from any foreign country will be put in a 14-day quarantine. |
| 28/2/20 | Police arrests Jimmy Lai, Lee Cheuk-yan and Yeung Sum. |
| 6/2/20 | People rush to purchase daily necessities. |
| 31/1/20 | The government refuses full border closure. |
| 29/1/20 | People rush to purchase masks, which are in short supply. |
| 21/1/20 | Wuhan pneumonia continues to spread rapidly and into Taiwan. |
| 11/1/20 | Tsai Ing-wen wins Taiwan’s presidential election. |
Data Analysis
Survey on Taiwan and Tibetan issues shows that Hong Kong people’s net confidence in the ultimate reunification across the strait has rebounded significantly from the historical low last time by 17 percentage points to negative 36. Regarding international space, net support in Taiwan’s rejoining the United Nations stands at positive 26 percentage points, which has dropped significantly from the historical high last time by 10 percentage points. As for the independence of Taiwan, 41% each showed support and opposition respectively. Meanwhile, net value in believing “one country, two systems” was applicable to Taiwan stands at negative 45 percentage points. Regarding Tibetan issues, net support in the independence of Tibet stands at negative 13 percentage points.
