2020年11月17日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
2020年11月17日 新聞公報
民研計劃發放特首及問責司局長民望數字
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
根據我們數個月前進行的公眾諮詢結果，司長民望調查繼續維持每個月進行一次，而局長民望調查的頻率則由今年下半年開始減少至每兩個月一次。今天的公報包括特首及所有司局長的民望數字。
公報簡要
民研計劃於十一月中由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,005名香港居民。調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為30.8分，民望淨值為負48個百分點，兩項民望數字均較半個月前顯著上升。司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分為30.7分，民望淨值為負32個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為39.5分，民望淨值為負9個百分點，創2017年2月以來新高。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為21.7分，民望淨值為負51個百分點。以上民望淨值與一個月前分別不大。局長方面，十三位局長的民望淨值繼續全部錄得負值，但較兩個月前全部錄得升幅，而所有支持率淨值變化均超過抽樣誤差，只有除聶德權和楊潤雄除外。調查的實效回應比率為63.9%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.5。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 9-13/11/2020 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,005 (包括512個固網及493個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 63.9% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.5 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一九年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2019年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 17-20/8/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 21-24/9/20 | 5-8/10/20 | 19-22/10/20 | 9-13/11/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,020 | 1,007 | 1,013 | 1,002 | 1,020 | 1,005 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 60.9% | 58.4% | 61.5% | 62.8% | 62.2% | 63.9% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特首林鄭月娥評分 | 26.8 | 28.1 | 27.5 | 28.6 | 27.2 | 30.8+/-2.2 | +3.6[3] |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首支持率 | 24%[3] | 21% | 17% | 18% | 18% | 21+/-3% | +3% |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首反對率 | 70% | 69% | 71% | 72% | 74% | 69+/-3% | -4%[3] |
| 支持率淨值 | -46%[3] | -48% | -53% | -53% | -56% | -48+/-5% | +8%[3] |
[3] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是各問責司長的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 1-4/6/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 3-6/8/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 5-8/10/20 | 9-13/11/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 562-655 | 524-596 | 503-655 | 649-689 | 593-642 | 608-636 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 64.3% | 52.4% | 64.4% | 58.4% | 62.8% | 63.9% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 政務司司長張建宗評分 | 30.6 | 29.9 | 29.0 | 28.5 | 28.7 | 30.7+/-2.4 | +2.0 |
| 張建宗出任政務司司長支持率 | 19% | 19% | 16% | 16% | 18% | 18+/-3% | -- |
| 張建宗出任政務司司長反對率 | 51% | 52% | 55% | 54% | 50% | 50+/-4% | -- |
| 支持率淨值 | -32% | -33% | -39% | -39% | -32% | -32+/-6% | -- |
| 財政司司長陳茂波評分 | 34.3 | 37.8 | 37.0 | 35.5 | 36.9 | 39.5+/-2.5 | +2.6 |
| 陳茂波出任財政司司長支持率 | 26% | 28% | 26% | 28% | 28% | 29+/-4% | +1% |
| 陳茂波出任財政司司長反對率 | 47% | 44% | 46% | 46% | 44% | 38+/-4% | -6%[4] |
| 支持率淨值 | -21% | -16% | -20% | -18% | -16% | -9+/-7% | +7% |
| 律政司司長鄭若驊評分 | 18.7 | 20.3 | 22.2 | 20.8 | 19.3 | 21.7+/-2.3 | +2.4 |
| 鄭若驊出任律政司司長支持率 | 11% | 10% | 15%[4] | 13% | 12% | 13+/-3% | +1% |
| 鄭若驊出任律政司司長反對率 | 72% | 68% | 67% | 69% | 68% | 64+/-4% | -5% |
| 支持率淨值 | -61% | -57% | -53% | -56% | -57% | -51+/-6% | +6% |
[4] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是各問責局長的最新民望數字，按支持率淨值倒序排列[5]：
| 調查日期 | 1-4/6/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 9-13/11/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 577-1,002 | 584-634 | 580-645 | 588-642 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 64.3% | 52.4% | 58.4% | 63.9% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 黃錦星出任環境局局長支持率 | 20%[6] | 24% | 22% | 28+/-4% | +6%[6] |
| 黃錦星出任環境局局長反對率 | 28%[6] | 29% | 31% | 28+/-4% | -3% |
| 支持率淨值 | -7%[6] | -4% | -9% | -<1+/-6% | +9%[6] |
| 許正宇出任財經事務及庫務局局長支持率 | 16% | 20% | 16% | 20+/-3% | +4%[6] |
| 許正宇出任財經事務及庫務局局長反對率 | 22% | 25% | 27% | 21+/-3% | -6%[6] |
| 支持率淨值 | -6% | -5% | -11% | -1+/-5% | +10%[6] |
| 陳肇始出任食物及衛生局局長支持率 | 32% | 30% | 27% | 36+/-4% | +9%[6] |
| 陳肇始出任食物及衛生局局長反對率 | 37% | 34% | 49%[6] | 38+/-4% | -10%[6] |
| 支持率淨值 | -5% | -4% | -21%[6] | -2+/-7% | +19%[6] |
| 薛永恒出任創新及科技局局長支持率 | 18% | 23%[6] | 19% | 23+/-4% | +4% |
| 薛永恒出任創新及科技局局長反對率 | 28%[6] | 30% | 35% | 26+/-4% | -9%[6] |
| 支持率淨值 | -10%[6] | -7% | -16%[6] | -3+/-6% | +13%[6] |
| 黃偉綸出任發展局局長支持率 | 17% | 19% | 15%[6] | 21+/-3% | +6%[6] |
| 黃偉綸出任發展局局長反對率 | 29%[6] | 29% | 32% | 27+/-4% | -5% |
| 支持率淨值 | -11% | -9% | -17%[6] | -6+/-6% | +11%[6] |
| 羅致光出任勞工及福利局局長支持率 | 26% | 29% | 24% | 28+/-4% | +4% |
| 羅致光出任勞工及福利局局長反對率 | 41% | 39% | 44% | 36+/-4% | -8%[6] |
| 支持率淨值 | -15% | -10% | -20%[6] | -9+/-7% | +11%[6] |
| 徐英偉出任民政事務局局長支持率 | 18% | 19% | 17% | 20+/-3% | +3% |
| 徐英偉出任民政事務局局長反對率 | 33%[6] | 32% | 36% | 29+/-4% | -7%[6] |
| 支持率淨值 | -15%[6] | -13% | -19% | -9+/-6% | +10%[6] |
| 邱騰華出任商務及經濟發展局局長支持率 | 20% | 24% | 21% | 28+/-4% | +8%[6] |
| 邱騰華出任商務及經濟發展局局長反對率 | 48%[6] | 43% | 48%[6] | 38+/-4% | -10%[6] |
| 支持率淨值 | -28% | -18%[6] | -27%[6] | -10+/-7% | +17%[6] |
| 陳帆出任運輸及房屋局局長支持率 | 16%[6] | 19% | 20% | 25+/-4% | +5%[6] |
| 陳帆出任運輸及房屋局局長反對率 | 45% | 43% | 45% | 38+/-4% | -7%[6] |
| 支持率淨值 | -29%[6] | -24% | -26% | -13+/-7% | +12%[6] |
| 聶德權出任公務員事務局局長支持率 | 21% | 21% | 23% | 23+/-3% | -- |
| 聶德權出任公務員事務局局長反對率 | 39% | 45%[6] | 49% | 42+/-4% | -7%[6] |
| 支持率淨值 | -18%[6] | -24% | -26% | -19+/-6% | +7% |
| 曾國衞出任政制及內地事務局局長支持率 | 21% | 23% | 19% | 23+/-3% | +4% |
| 曾國衞出任政制及內地事務局局長反對率 | 42% | 41% | 50%[6] | 43+/-4% | -8%[6] |
| 支持率淨值 | -21% | -18% | -31%[6] | -20+/-7% | +11%[6] |
| 李家超出任保安局局長支持率 | 23%[6] | 26% | 21% | 24+/-3% | +3% |
| 李家超出任保安局局長反對率 | 60% | 59% | 63% | 55+/-4% | -8%[6] |
| 支持率淨值 | -37%[6] | -33% | -42% | -31+/-7% | +11%[6] |
| 楊潤雄出任教育局局長支持率 | 13%[6] | 15% | 17% | 20+/-3% | +3% |
| 楊潤雄出任教育局局長反對率 | 64%[6] | 62% | 60% | 59+/-4% | -- |
| 支持率淨值 | -51%[6] | -47% | -43% | -39+/-6% | +4% |
[5] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
[6] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為30.8分，其支持率為21%，反對率為69%，民望淨值為負48個百分點，評分和民望淨值均較半個月前顯著上升。
司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分為30.7分，支持率為18%，反對率為50%，民望淨值為負32個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為39.5分，支持率為29%，反對率為38%，民望淨值為負9個百分點，創2017年2月以來新高。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為21.7分，支持率為13%，反對率為64%，民望淨值為負51個百分點。以上民望淨值與一個月前分別不大。
局長方面，十三位局長的民望淨值全部錄得負值，排名首位的是環境局局長黃錦星，然後是財經事務及庫務局局長許正宇、食物及衛生局局長陳肇始、創新及科技局局長薛永恒、發展局局長黃偉綸、勞工及福利局局長羅致光、民政事務局局長徐英偉、商務及經濟發展局局長邱騰華、運輸及房屋局局長陳帆、公務員事務局局長聶德權、政制及內地事務局局長曾國衞、保安局局長李家超及教育局局長楊潤雄。對比兩個月前，全部十三位局長的支持率淨值均告上升，當中除聶德權和楊潤雄以外的支持率淨值變化均超過抽樣誤差。
根據民研計劃的標準，沒有官員屬於「表現理想」或「表現成功」，陳肇始、陳茂波、邱騰華、羅致光、黃錦星、陳帆、曾國衞及聶德權屬於「表現一般」，薛永恒、黃偉綸、許正宇及徐英偉屬於「表現不彰」，鄭若驊、楊潤雄、李家超及張建宗屬於「表現失敗」，林鄭月娥屬於「表現拙劣」。
以下是特首林鄭月娥及各問責官員民望級別總表：
| 「表現理想」：支持率超過66%者，以支持率排名[7]，即括弧內數字 |
| 沒有官員 |
| 「表現成功」：支持率超過50%者，以支持率排名[7]，即括弧內數字 |
| 沒有官員 |
| 「表現一般」：非其他五類者，以支持率排名[7]，即括弧內數字 |
| 食物及衛生局局長陳肇始（36%）
財政司司長陳茂波（29%） 商務及經濟發展局局長邱騰華（28%） 勞工及福利局局長羅致光（28%） 環境局局長黃錦星（28%） 運輸及房屋局局長陳帆（25%） 政制及內地事務局局長曾國衞（23%） 公務員事務局局長聶德權（23%） |
| 「表現不彰」：認知率不足50%者，以支持率排名[7]，括弧內第一數字為支持率，第二數字為認知率 |
| 創新及科技局局長薛永恒（23%，49%）
發展局局長黃偉綸（21%，48%） 財經事務及庫務局局長許正宇（20%，42%） 民政事務局局長徐英偉（20%，49%） |
| 「表現失敗」：反對率超過50%者，以反對率排名[7]，即括弧內數字 |
| 律政司司長鄭若驊（64%）
教育局局長楊潤雄（59%） 保安局局長李家超（55%） 政務司司長張建宗（50%） |
| 「表現拙劣」：反對率超過66%者，以反對率排名[7]，即括弧內數字 |
| 特首林鄭月娥（69%） |
[7] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為31/8-4/9/2020，而今次調查日期則為9-13/11/2020，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 11/11/20 | 人大常委取消4名民主派立法會議員資格 |
| 6/11/20 | 國務院副總理韓正與林鄭月娥會晤 |
| 1/11/20 | 警方以涉嫌違反權力及特權法拘捕6名民主派議員 |
| 31/10/20 | 七名8.31暴動案被告被裁定無罪 |
| 21/10/20 | 國泰航空大規模裁員，停運國泰港龍 |
| 12/10/20 | 林鄭月娥押後施政報告 |
| 10/10/20 | 警方以涉嫌協助現被關押深圳的12名港人偷渡拘捕9人 |
| 6/10/20 | 教育局以專業失德為由取消一名小學教師註冊 |
| 1/10/20 | 警方於銅鑼灣等各區拘捕最少86名示威者 |
| 22/9/20 | 警方修改《警察通例》下「傳媒代表」定義 |
| 14/9/20 | 178萬人參與普及社區檢測計劃，發現32宗新個案 |
| 12/9/20 | 12名香港青年被扣押深圳逾兩周，被捕人士家屬召開記者會 |
| 11/9/20 | 死因庭陪審團裁定陳彥霖死因存疑 |
| 10/9/20 | 警方以在買賣壹傳媒股票時涉嫌詐騙及洗黑錢拘捕15人 |
數據分析
調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為30.8分，民望淨值為負48個百分點，兩項民望數字均較半個月前顯著上升。
司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分為30.7分，民望淨值為負32個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為39.5分，民望淨值為負9個百分點，創2017年2月以來新高。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為21.7分，民望淨值為負51個百分點。以上民望淨值與一個月前分別不大。
局長方面，十三位局長的民望淨值繼續全部錄得負值，但較兩個月前全部錄得升幅，而所有支持率淨值變化均超過抽樣誤差，只有除聶德權和楊潤雄除外。
Nov 17, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Press Release on November 17, 2020
POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials
Special Announcements
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
According to the result of our public consultation conducted a few months ago, the popularity survey on the Secretaries of Departments continues to take place every month, while that on the Directors of Bureaux has been thinned out to once every 2 months since the second half of this year. Today’s release includes the popularities of CE and all principal officials.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,005 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in mid-November. Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 30.8 marks. Her net popularity is negative 48 percentage points. Both popularity figures have increased significantly from half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 30.7 marks and his net popularity is negative 32 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 39.5 marks and his net popularity is negative 9 percentage points which is a new high since February 2017. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 21.7 marks and her net popularity is negative 51 percentage points. All net popularity figures cited above have not changed much in the month past. As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them continue to register negative net approval rates, but all have gone up as compared to two months ago. All except those of Patrick Nip and Kevin Yeung have changed beyond sampling error. The effective response rate of the survey is 63.9%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.5 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 9-13/11/2020 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,005 (including 512 landline and 493 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 63.9% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.5 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 17-20/8/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 21-24/9/20 | 5-8/10/20 | 19-22/10/20 | 9-13/11/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,020 | 1,007 | 1,013 | 1,002 | 1,020 | 1,005 | -- |
| Response rate | 60.9% | 58.4% | 61.5% | 62.8% | 62.2% | 63.9% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 26.8 | 28.1 | 27.5 | 28.6 | 27.2 | 30.8+/-2.2 | +3.6[3] |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 24%[3] | 21% | 17% | 18% | 18% | 21+/-3% | +3% |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 70% | 69% | 71% | 72% | 74% | 69+/-3% | -4%[3] |
| Net approval rate | -46%[3] | -48% | -53% | -53% | -56% | -48+/-5% | +8%[3] |
[3] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 1-4/6/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 3-6/8/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 5-8/10/20 | 9-13/11/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 562-655 | 524-596 | 503-655 | 649-689 | 593-642 | 608-636 | -- |
| Response rate | 64.3% | 52.4% | 64.4% | 58.4% | 62.8% | 63.9% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CS Matthew Cheung | 30.6 | 29.9 | 29.0 | 28.5 | 28.7 | 30.7+/-2.4 | +2.0 |
| Vote of confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
19% | 19% | 16% | 16% | 18% | 18+/-3% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
51% | 52% | 55% | 54% | 50% | 50+/-4% | -- |
| Net approval rate | -32% | -33% | -39% | -39% | -32% | -32+/-6% | -- |
| Rating of FS Paul Chan | 34.3 | 37.8 | 37.0 | 35.5 | 36.9 | 39.5+/-2.5 | +2.6 |
| Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan | 26% | 28% | 26% | 28% | 28% | 29+/-4% | +1% |
| Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan | 47% | 44% | 46% | 46% | 44% | 38+/-4% | -6%[4] |
| Net approval rate | -21% | -16% | -20% | -18% | -16% | -9+/-7% | +7% |
| Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng | 18.7 | 20.3 | 22.2 | 20.8 | 19.3 | 21.7+/-2.3 | +2.4 |
| Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 11% | 10% | 15%[4] | 13% | 12% | 13+/-3% | +1% |
| Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 72% | 68% | 67% | 69% | 68% | 64+/-4% | -5% |
| Net approval rate | -61% | -57% | -53% | -56% | -57% | -51+/-6% | +6% |
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates[5]:
| Date of survey | 1-4/6/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 9-13/11/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 577-1,002 | 584-634 | 580-645 | 588-642 | -- |
| Response rate | 64.3% | 52.4% | 58.4% | 63.9% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing | 20%[6] | 24% | 22% | 28+/-4% | +6%[6] |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing | 28%[6] | 29% | 31% | 28+/-4% | -3% |
| Net approval rate | -7%[6] | -4% | -9% | -<1+/-6% | +9%[6] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui | 16% | 20% | 16% | 20+/-3% | +4%[6] |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui | 22% | 25% | 27% | 21+/-3% | -6%[6] |
| Net approval rate | -6% | -5% | -11% | -1+/-5% | +10%[6] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan | 32% | 30% | 27% | 36+/-4% | +9%[6] |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan | 37% | 34% | 49%[6] | 38+/-4% | -10%[6] |
| Net approval rate | -5% | -4% | -21%[6] | -2+/-7% | +19%[6] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit | 18% | 23%[6] | 19% | 23+/-4% | +4% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit | 28%[6] | 30% | 35% | 26+/-4% | -9%[6] |
| Net approval rate | -10%[6] | -7% | -16%[6] | -3+/-6% | +13%[6] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong | 17% | 19% | 15%[6] | 21+/-3% | +6%[6] |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong | 29%[6] | 29% | 32% | 27+/-4% | -5% |
| Net approval rate | -11% | -9% | -17%[6] | -6+/-6% | +11%[6] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong | 26% | 29% | 24% | 28+/-4% | +4% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong | 41% | 39% | 44% | 36+/-4% | -8%[6] |
| Net approval rate | -15% | -10% | -20%[6] | -9+/-7% | +11%[6] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui | 18% | 19% | 17% | 20+/-3% | +3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui | 33%[6] | 32% | 36% | 29+/-4% | -7%[6] |
| Net approval rate | -15%[6] | -13% | -19% | -9+/-6% | +10%[6] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau | 20% | 24% | 21% | 28+/-4% | +8%[6] |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau | 48%[6] | 43% | 48%[6] | 38+/-4% | -10%[6] |
| Net approval rate | -28% | -18%[6] | -27%[6] | -10+/-7% | +17%[6] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan | 16%[6] | 19% | 20% | 25+/-4% | +5%[6] |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan | 45% | 43% | 45% | 38+/-4% | -7%[6] |
| Net approval rate | -29%[6] | -24% | -26% | -13+/-7% | +12%[6] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip | 21% | 21% | 23% | 23+/-3% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip | 39% | 45%[6] | 49% | 42+/-4% | -7%[6] |
| Net approval rate | -18%[6] | -24% | -26% | -19+/-6% | +7% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang | 21% | 23% | 19% | 23+/-3% | +4% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang | 42% | 41% | 50%[6] | 43+/-4% | -8%[6] |
| Net approval rate | -21% | -18% | -31%[6] | -20+/-7% | +11%[6] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee | 23%[6] | 26% | 21% | 24+/-3% | +3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee | 60% | 59% | 63% | 55+/-4% | -8%[6] |
| Net approval rate | -37%[6] | -33% | -42% | -31+/-7% | +11%[6] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung | 13%[6] | 15% | 17% | 20+/-3% | +3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung | 64%[6] | 62% | 60% | 59+/-4% | -- |
| Net approval rate | -51%[6] | -47% | -43% | -39+/-6% | +4% |
[5] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 30.8 marks. Her approval rate is 21%, disapproval rate 69%, giving a net popularity of negative 48 percentage points. Both the popularity rating and net popularity have increased significantly from half a month ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 30.7 marks. His approval rate is 18%, disapproval rate 50%, giving a net popularity of negative 32 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 39.5 marks, approval rate 29%, disapproval rate 38%, thus a net popularity of negative 9 percentage points which is a new high since February 2017. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 21.7 marks, approval rate 13%, disapproval rate 64%, giving a net popularity of negative 51 percentage points. All net popularity cited above have not changed much from a month ago.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them register negative net approval rates. The top position goes to Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, followed by Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang, Secretary for Security John Lee and Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung. Compared to two months ago, the net approval rate of all 13 Directors have gone up. All but those of Patrick Nip and Kevin Yeung have changed beyond sampling error.
According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Sophia Chan, Paul Chan, Edward Yau, Law Chi-kwong, Wong Kam-sing, Frank Chan, Erick Tsang and Patrick Nip can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Alfred Sit, Michael Wong, Christopher Hui and Caspar Tsui can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Teresa Cheng, Kevin Yeung, John Lee and Matthew Cheung fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while Carrie Lam falls into that of “disastrous”.
The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials:
| “Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[7] |
| Nil |
| “Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[7] |
| Nil |
| “Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[7] |
| Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee (36%)
FS Paul Chan Mo-po (29%) Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau Tang-wah (28%) Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (28%) Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (28%) Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan Fan (25%) Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang Kwok-wai (23%) Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip Tak-kuen (23%) |
| “Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%
ranked by their approval rates[7] the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate |
| Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit Wing-hang (23%, 49%)
Secretary for Development Michael Wong Wai-lun (21%, 48%) Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui Ching-yu (20%, 42%) Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui Ying-wai (20%, 49%) |
| “Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%
ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[7] |
| SJ Teresa Cheng Yeuk-wah (64%)
Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung Yun-hung (59%) Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-chiu (55%) CS Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (50%) |
| “Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%
ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[7] |
| CE Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (69%) |
[7] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 31 August to 4 September, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 9 to 13 November, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 11/11/20 | NPCSC disqualifies 4 democrats in LegCo. |
| 6/11/20 | Vice-Premier of the State Council Han Zheng meets Carrie Lam. |
| 1/11/20 | Police arrests 6 democrats who allegedly violated the LegCo Powers and Privileges Ordinance. |
| 31/10/20 | Seven defendants accused of rioting on 31 August 2019 are found not guilty. |
| 21/10/20 | Cathay Pacific announces massive lay-offs and closes Cathay Dragon. |
| 12/10/20 | Carrie Lam postpones Policy Address. |
| 10/10/20 | Police arrests 9 people on suspicion of helping the 12 Hong Kong people now being detained in Shenzhen flee Hong Kong. |
| 6/10/20 | The Education Bureau deregisters a primary school teacher for professional misconduct. |
| 1/10/20 | Police arrests at least 86 protesters in various districts including Causeway Bay. |
| 22/9/20 | Police changes the definition of “media representatives” under the Police General Orders. |
| 14/9/20 | The Universal Community Testing Programme ends with 1.78 million people participated and 32 new cases found. |
| 12/9/20 | Twelve Hong Kong youngsters have been detained in Shenzhen for over two weeks. Their family members hold a press conference. |
| 11/9/20 | The jury in the Coroner’s Court returns an open verdict in the death of Chan Yin-lam. |
| 10/9/20 | Police arrests 15 people on suspicion of defrauding and money laundering by trading Next Digital shares. |
Data Analysis
The latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 30.8 marks. Her net popularity is negative 48 percentage points. Both popularity figures have increased significantly from half a month ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 30.7 marks and his net popularity is negative 32 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 39.5 marks and his net popularity is negative 9 percentage points which is a new high since February 2017. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 21.7 marks and her net popularity is negative 51 percentage points. All net popularity figures cited above have not changed much in the month past.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them continue to register negative net approval rates, but all have gone up as compared to two months ago. All except those of Patrick Nip and Kevin Yeung have changed beyond sampling error.
