2020年11月24日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
2020年11月24日 新聞公報
民研計劃發放五項核心社會指標
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
根據我們數個月前進行的公眾諮詢結果，五項核心社會指標的調查頻率由下半年開始增加至每個月一次，而其他近二十項的非核心社會指標、自由次指標及法治指標則暫時維持半年一次。因此，今日公報只包括五項核心社會指標。
公報簡要
民研計劃於十一月中由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,005名香港居民。調查顯示，以0至10分評價，市民對全部五項核心社會指標的評分均低於5分，由高至低分別是「自由」、「繁榮」、「安定」、「法治」和「民主」，得分分別為4.60、4.57、4.15、4.05和3.74分。相比一個月前，「繁榮」指標錄得顯著升幅。調查的實效回應比率為63.9%。在95%置信水平下，調查的評分誤差不超過+/-0.27。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 9-13/11/2020 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,005 (包括512個固網及493個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 63.9% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，評分誤差不超過+/-0.27 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一九年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2019年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
以下是五項核心社會指標的最新數字：
| 調查日期 | 6-9/7/20 | 3-6/8/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 19-22/10/20 | 9-13/11/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 598-664 | 584-619 | 590-618 | 575-632 | 579-634 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 52.4% | 64.4% | 58.4% | 62.2% | 63.9% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 自由指標 | 4.84[3] | 4.74 | 4.13[3] | 4.60[3] | 4.60+/-0.26 | -0.01 |
| 繁榮指標 | 5.35 | 4.19[3] | 4.15 | 4.30 | 4.57+/-0.18 | +0.27[3] |
| 安定指標 | 4.12[3] | 3.76[3] | 3.63 | 4.15[3] | 4.15+/-0.24 | -- |
| 法治指標 | 4.14 | 3.80 | 3.41[3] | 3.82[3] | 4.05+/-0.26 | +0.24 |
| 民主指標 | 4.37 | 3.70[3] | 3.49 | 3.61 | 3.74+/-0.27 | +0.13 |
[3] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以0至10分評價，市民對全部五項核心社會指標的評分均低於5分，由高至低分別是「自由」、「繁榮」、「安定」、「法治」和「民主」，得分分別為4.60、4.57、4.15、4.05和3.74分。相比一個月前，「繁榮」指標錄得顯著升幅。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事紀錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的調查項目，上次調查日期為19-22/10/2020，而今次調查日期則為9-13/11/2020，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 14/11/20 | 政府宣布收緊防疫措施，推行強制檢測 |
| 11/11/20 | 人大常委取消4名民主派立法會議員資格 |
| 8/11/20 | 拜登發表勝利演說 |
| 7/11/20 | 美國多間傳媒指拜登勝出大選，特朗普則指控選舉舞弊 |
| 6/11/20 | 國務院副總理韓正與林鄭月娥會晤 |
| 1/11/20 | 警方以涉嫌違反權力及特權法拘捕6名民主派議員 |
| 31/10/20 | 七名8.31暴動案被告被裁定無罪 |
| 29/10/20 | 中共五中全會通過「十四五」規劃 |
| 27/10/20 | 政府宣布放寬防疫措施 |
| 23/10/20 | 習近平出席抗美援朝周年紀念大會並發表演說 |
| 21/10/20 | 國泰航空大規模裁員，停運國泰港龍 |
| 20/10/20 | 政府宣布放寬防疫措施 |
數據分析
調查顯示，以0至10分評價，市民對全部五項核心社會指標的評分均低於5分，由高至低分別是「自由」、「繁榮」、「安定」、「法治」和「民主」，得分分別為4.60、4.57、4.15、4.05和3.74分。相比一個月前，「繁榮」指標錄得顯著升幅。
Nov 24, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Press Release on November 24, 2020
POP releases five core social indicators
Special Announcements
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
According to the result of our public consultation conducted a few months ago, the survey of the five core social indicators has been increased to once a month from the second half of this year, while the remaining 20 or so non-core social indicators, freedom and rule of law sub-indicators will remain to be run on a half-yearly cycle. Today’s release, therefore, only includes the five core social indicators.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,005 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in mid-November. Our survey shows that on a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators are lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “prosperity”, “stability”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.60, 4.57, 4.15, 4.05 and 3.74 respectively. Compared with a month ago, rating of “prosperity” has increased significantly. The effective response rate of the survey is 63.9%. The maximum sampling error of ratings is +/-0.27 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 9-13/11/2020 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,005 (including 512 landline and 493 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 63.9% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of ratings not more than +/-0.27 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Herewith the latest figures of the five core social indicators:
| Date of survey | 6-9/7/20 | 3-6/8/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 19-22/10/20 | 9-13/11/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 598-664 | 584-619 | 590-618 | 575-632 | 579-634 | -- |
| Response rate | 52.4% | 64.4% | 58.4% | 62.2% | 63.9% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Degree of freedom | 4.84[3] | 4.74 | 4.13[3] | 4.60[3] | 4.60+/-0.26 | -0.01 |
| Degree of prosperity | 5.35 | 4.19[3] | 4.15 | 4.30 | 4.57+/-0.18 | +0.27[3] |
| Degree of stability | 4.12[3] | 3.76[3] | 3.63 | 4.15[3] | 4.15+/-0.24 | -- |
| Compliance with the rule of law | 4.14 | 3.80 | 3.41[3] | 3.82[3] | 4.05+/-0.26 | +0.24 |
| Degree of democracy | 4.37 | 3.70[3] | 3.49 | 3.61 | 3.74+/-0.27 | +0.13 |
[3] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators are lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “prosperity”, “stability”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.60, 4.57, 4.15, 4.05 and 3.74 respectively. Compared with a month ago, rating of “prosperity” has increased significantly.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 19 to 22 October, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 9 to 13 November, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 14/11/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and imposes mandatory testing. |
| 11/11/20 | NPCSC disqualifies 4 democrats in LegCo. |
| 8/11/20 | Biden gives victory speech. |
| 7/11/20 | Multiple US media calls the presidential election for Biden, but Trump makes claims of election fraud. |
| 6/11/20 | Vice-Premier of the State Council Han Zheng meets Carrie Lam. |
| 1/11/20 | Police arrests 6 democrats who allegedly violated the LegCo Powers and Privileges Ordinance. |
| 31/10/20 | Seven defendants accused of rioting on 31 August 2019 are found not guilty. |
| 29/10/20 | The fifth plenary session of the Communist Party of China Central Committee passes the 15th Five-Year Plan. |
| 27/10/20 | The government relaxes anti-epidemic measures. |
| 23/10/20 | Xi Jinping attends anniversary event of the Korean War and delivers a speech. |
| 21/10/20 | Cathay Pacific announces massive lay-offs and closes Cathay Dragon. |
| 20/10/20 | The government relaxes anti-epidemic measures. |
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that on a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators are lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “prosperity”, “stability”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.60, 4.57, 4.15, 4.05 and 3.74 respectively. Compared with a month ago, rating of “prosperity” has increased significantly.
