2021年12月15日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
2020年12月15日 新聞公報
民研計劃發放特首及司長民望數字,以及五項核心社會指標
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃(香港民研)前身為香港大學民意研究計劃(港大民研)。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
根據我們早前進行的公眾諮詢結果,局長民望調查的頻率已由下半年開始減至每兩個月一次。因此今天的公報只有特首及三位司長的民望數字。
公報簡要
民研計劃於十二月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,009名香港居民。調查顯示,特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為30.6分,有45%市民給予0分,民望淨值為負50個百分點,兩項民望數字均與半個月前分別不大。司長方面,政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分為29.2分,民望淨值為負34個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分下跌4.1分至35.4,民望淨值下跌11個百分點至負20,兩項跌幅皆超過抽樣誤差。至於律政司司長鄭若驊,其支持度評分為23.3分,民望淨值為負49個百分點,評分和民望淨值與一個月前分別不大,但就創2019年6月以來新高。以0至10分評價,市民對全部五項核心社會指標的評分繼續低於5分,由高至低分別是「自由」、「安定」、「繁榮」、「法治」和「民主」,得分分別為4.68、4.17、4.11、4.01和3.85分。相比一個月前,「繁榮」指標錄得顯著跌幅,並創1997年有紀錄以來新低。調查的實效回應比率為70.0%。在95%置信水平下,調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%,淨值誤差不超過+/-6%,評分誤差不超過+/-2.5。
樣本資料
調查日期 | : | 7-10/12/2020 |
調查方法 | : | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
訪問對象 | : | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
成功樣本數目[1] | : | 1,009 (包括506個固網及503個手機樣本) |
實效回應比率 | : | 70.0% |
抽樣誤差[2] | : | 在95%置信水平下,百分比誤差不超過+/-4%,淨值誤差不超過+/-6%,評分誤差不超過+/-2.5 |
加權方法 | : | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一九年年中人口數字》,而教育程度(最高就讀程度)及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》(2019年版)。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目,個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平,是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次,則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差,傳媒引用百分比數字時,應避免使用小數點,在引用評分數字時,則可以使用一個小數點。
特首及司長民望
以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字:
調查日期 | 21-24/9/20 | 5-8/10/20 | 19-22/10/20 | 9-13/11/20 | 23-26/11/20[3] | 7-10/12/20 | 最新變化 |
樣本數目 | 1,013 | 1,002 | 1,020 | 1,005 | 1,085 | 1,009 | -- |
回應比率 | 61.5% | 62.8% | 62.2% | 63.9% | 74.6% | 70.0% | -- |
最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
特首林鄭月娥評分 | 27.5 | 28.6 | 27.2 | 30.8[4] | 33.5 | 30.6+/-2.2 | -2.9 |
林鄭月娥出任特首支持率 | 17% | 18% | 18% | 21% | 21% | 20+/-3% | -2% |
林鄭月娥出任特首反對率 | 71% | 72% | 74% | 69%[4] | 66% | 69+/-3% | +3% |
支持率淨值 | -53% | -53% | -56% | -48%[4] | -45% | -50+/-5% | -5% |
[3] 香港民研在兩次定期評分之間,在25/11/2020進行了施政報告即時調查,結果是特首評分26.8分,特首支持率淨值負57個百分點。由於定期評分調查不設網上調查部分,而調查亦在施政報告前兩天開始,因此數字適宜與上次於9-13/11/2020進行的定期調查比較。
[4] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差,表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過,變化在統計學上成立與否,並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義,而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是各問責司長的最新民望數字:
調查日期 | 6-9/7/20 | 3-6/8/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 5-8/10/20 | 9-13/11/20 | 7-10/12/20 | 最新變化 |
樣本數目 | 524-596 | 503-655 | 649-689 | 593-642 | 608-636 | 574-657 | -- |
回應比率 | 52.4% | 64.4% | 58.4% | 62.8% | 63.9% | 70.0% | -- |
最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
政務司司長張建宗評分 | 29.9 | 29.0 | 28.5 | 28.7 | 30.7 | 29.2+/-2.5 | -1.5 |
張建宗出任政務司司長支持率 | 19% | 16% | 16% | 18% | 18% | 17+/-3% | -1% |
張建宗出任政務司司長反對率 | 52% | 55% | 54% | 50% | 50% | 51+/-4% | +1% |
支持率淨值 | -33% | -39% | -39% | -32% | -32% | -34+/-6% | -1% |
財政司司長陳茂波評分 | 37.8 | 37.0 | 35.5 | 36.9 | 39.5 | 35.4+/-2.5 | -4.1[5] |
陳茂波出任財政司司長支持率 | 28% | 26% | 28% | 28% | 29% | 24+/-3% | -5% |
陳茂波出任財政司司長反對率 | 44% | 46% | 46% | 44% | 38%[5] | 44+/-4% | +6%[5] |
支持率淨值 | -16% | -20% | -18% | -16% | -9% | -20+/-6% | -11%[5] |
律政司司長鄭若驊評分 | 20.3 | 22.2 | 20.8 | 19.3 | 21.7 | 23.3+/-2.4 | +1.6 |
鄭若驊出任律政司司長支持率 | 10% | 15%[5] | 13% | 12% | 13% | 14+/-3% | +1% |
鄭若驊出任律政司司長反對率 | 68% | 67% | 69% | 68% | 64% | 63+/-4% | -- |
支持率淨值 | -57% | -53% | -56% | -57% | -51% | -49+/-6% | +1% |
[5] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差,表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過,變化在統計學上成立與否,並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義,而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示,特首林鄭月娥的評分為30.6分,其支持率為20%,反對率為69%,民望淨值為負50個百分點,全部數字與半個月前分別不大。
司長方面,政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分為29.2分,支持率為17%,反對率為51%,民望淨值為負34個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分顯著下跌4.1分至35.4,支持率為24%,反對率為44%,民望淨值下跌11個百分點至負20,跌幅超過抽樣誤差。至於律政司司長鄭若驊,其支持度評分為23.3分,支持率為14%,反對率為63%,民望淨值為負49個百分點,評分和民望淨值與一個月前分別不大,但就創2019年6月以來新高。
核心社會指標
以下是五項核心社會指標的最新數字:
調查日期 | 3-6/8/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 19-22/10/20 | 9-13/11/20 | 7-10/12/20 | 最新變化 |
樣本數目 | 584-619 | 590-618 | 575-632 | 579-634 | 602-609 | -- |
回應比率 | 64.4% | 58.4% | 62.2% | 63.9% | 70.0% | -- |
最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
自由指標 | 4.74 | 4.13[6] | 4.60[6] | 4.60 | 4.68+/-0.27 | +0.09 |
安定指標 | 3.76[6] | 3.63 | 4.15[6] | 4.15 | 4.17+/-0.23 | +0.02 |
繁榮指標 | 4.19[6] | 4.15 | 4.30 | 4.57[6] | 4.11+/-0.19 | -0.45[6] |
法治指標 | 3.80 | 3.41[6] | 3.82[6] | 4.05 | 4.01+/-0.26 | -0.04 |
民主指標 | 3.70[6] | 3.49 | 3.61 | 3.74 | 3.85+/-0.28 | +0.11 |
[6] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差,表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過,變化在統計學上成立與否,並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義,而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以0至10分評價,市民對全部五項核心社會指標的評分繼續低於5分,由高至低分別是「自由」、「安定」、「繁榮」、「法治」和「民主」,得分分別為4.68、4.17、4.11、4.01和3.85分。相比一個月前,「繁榮」指標錄得顯著跌幅,並創1997年有紀錄以來新低。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作,由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法,將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃,經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目,上次調查日期為9-13/11/2020,而今次調查日期則為7-10/12/2020,因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸,讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計,在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件,讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字:
8/12/20 | 政府再收緊防疫措施,新增禁足及強制檢測權力 |
5/12/20 | 國安法指定法官蘇惠德收到死亡恐嚇 |
3/12/20 | 黎智英被拒保釋,須還押候訊 |
2/12/20 | 前香港眾志成員黃之鋒、林朗彥及周庭被判囚7至13.5個月 |
30/11/20 | 政府宣布收緊防疫措施,設立熱線舉報違規行為 |
26/11/20 | 教育局宣布改革通識教育科 |
25/11/20 | 林鄭月娥發表施政報告 |
24/11/20 | 政府宣布收緊防疫措施,強制公眾場所展示安心出行二維碼 |
21/11/20 | 警方以涉嫌違反國安法資助分裂國家罪拘捕網台主持等3人 |
19/11/20 | 高等法院裁定警察不展示個人編號違反人權法 |
14/11/20 | 政府宣布收緊防疫措施,推行強制檢測 |
11/11/20 | 人大常委取消4名民主派立法會議員資格 |
數據分析
調查顯示,特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為30.6分,有45%市民給予0分,民望淨值為負50個百分點,兩項民望數字均與半個月前分別不大。
司長方面,政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分為29.2分,民望淨值為負34個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分下跌4.1分至35.4,民望淨值下跌11個百分點至負20,兩項跌幅皆超過抽樣誤差。至於律政司司長鄭若驊,其支持度評分為23.3分,民望淨值為負49個百分點,評分和民望淨值與一個月前分別不大,但就創2019年6月以來新高。
以0至10分評價,市民對全部五項核心社會指標的評分繼續低於5分,由高至低分別是「自由」、「安定」、「繁榮」、「法治」和「民主」,得分分別為4.68、4.17、4.11、4.01和3.85分。相比一個月前,「繁榮」指標錄得顯著跌幅,並創1997年有紀錄以來新低。
Dec 15, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Press Release on December 15, 2020
POP releases popularity figures of CE and Secretaries of Departments
as well as five core social indicators
Special Announcements
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
According to the result of our public consultation conducted a while ago, the popularity survey of Directors of Bureaux have been thinned out to once every 2 months since the second half of this year. Therefore, today’s release only includes the popularity figures of CE and 3 Secretaries of Departments.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,009 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early December. Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 30.6 marks, of which 45% of them gave her 0 mark. Her net popularity is negative 50 percentage points. Both popularity figures remain comparable to those registered half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 29.2 marks and his net popularity is negative 34 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan drops by 4.1 marks to 35.4 and his net popularity drops by 11 percentage points to negative 20. Both decrements have gone beyond its sampling error. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 23.3 marks and her net popularity is negative 49 percentage points. Her net popularity figures have not changed much from a month ago, but both figures have registered a new record high since June 2019. On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators continue to be lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “stability”, “prosperity”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.68, 4.17, 4.11, 4.01 and 3.85 respectively. Compared with a month ago, rating of “prosperity” has dropped significantly and registered its new low since records began in 1997. The effective response rate of the survey is 70.0%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-6% and that of ratings is +/-2.5 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
Date of survey | : | 7-10/12/2020 |
Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
Sample size[1] | : | 1,009 (including 506 landline and 503 mobile samples) |
Effective response rate | : | 70.0% |
Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-6% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.5 at 95% conf. level |
Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Popularity of CE and Secretaries of Departments
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
Date of survey | 21-24/9/20 | 5-8/10/20 | 19-22/10/20 | 9-13/11/20 | 23-26/11/20[3] | 7-10/12/20 | Latest change |
Sample size | 1,013 | 1,002 | 1,020 | 1,005 | 1,085 | 1,009 | -- |
Response rate | 61.5% | 62.8% | 62.2% | 63.9% | 74.6% | 70.0% | -- |
Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 27.5 | 28.6 | 27.2 | 30.8[4] | 33.5 | 30.6+/-2.2 | -2.9 |
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 17% | 18% | 18% | 21% | 21% | 20+/-3% | -2% |
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 71% | 72% | 74% | 69%[4] | 66% | 69+/-3% | +3% |
Net approval rate | -53% | -53% | -56% | -48%[4] | -45% | -50+/-5% | -5% |
[3] POP conducted a Policy Address instant survey on 25/11/2020 in between two tracking surveys, the results are: CE rating at 26.8 marks, net approval rate at negative 57 percentage points. Because our tracking surveys do not use online samples, and our latest survey started two days before the Policy Address, it is better to compare the latest figures with those collected in our previous survey conducted on 9-13/11/2020.
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
Date of survey | 6-9/7/20 | 3-6/8/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 5-8/10/20 | 9-13/11/20 | 7-10/12/20 | Latest change |
Sample size | 524-596 | 503-655 | 649-689 | 593-642 | 608-636 | 574-657 | -- |
Response rate | 52.4% | 64.4% | 58.4% | 62.8% | 63.9% | 70.0% | -- |
Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
Rating of CS Matthew Cheung | 29.9 | 29.0 | 28.5 | 28.7 | 30.7 | 29.2+/-2.5 | -1.5 |
Vote of confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
19% | 16% | 16% | 18% | 18% | 17+/-3% | -1% |
Vote of no confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
52% | 55% | 54% | 50% | 50% | 51+/-4% | +1% |
Net approval rate | -33% | -39% | -39% | -32% | -32% | -34+/-6% | -1% |
Rating of FS Paul Chan | 37.8 | 37.0 | 35.5 | 36.9 | 39.5 | 35.4+/-2.5 | -4.1[5] |
Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan | 28% | 26% | 28% | 28% | 29% | 24+/-3% | -5% |
Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan | 44% | 46% | 46% | 44% | 38%[5] | 44+/-4% | +6%[5] |
Net approval rate | -16% | -20% | -18% | -16% | -9% | -20+/-6% | -11%[5] |
Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng | 20.3 | 22.2 | 20.8 | 19.3 | 21.7 | 23.3+/-2.4 | +1.6 |
Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 10% | 15%[5] | 13% | 12% | 13% | 14+/-3% | +1% |
Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 68% | 67% | 69% | 68% | 64% | 63+/-4% | -- |
Net approval rate | -57% | -53% | -56% | -57% | -51% | -49+/-6% | +1% |
[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 30.6 marks. Her approval rate is 20%, disapproval rate 69%, giving a net popularity of negative 50 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 29.2 marks. His approval rate is 17%, disapproval rate 51%, giving a net popularity of negative 34 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan drops significantly by 4.1 marks to 35.4, approval rate 24%, disapproval rate 44%, thus a net popularity of negative 20 percentage points, down by 11 percentage points which goes beyond the sampling error. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 23.3 marks, approval rate 14%, disapproval rate 63%, giving a net popularity of negative 49 percentage points. Her rating and net popularity have not changed much from a month ago, but both figures have registered a new record high since June 2019.
Core Social Indicators
Herewith the latest figures of the five core social indicators:
Date of survey | 3-6/8/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 19-22/10/20 | 9-13/11/20 | 7-10/12/20 | Latest change |
Sample size | 584-619 | 590-618 | 575-632 | 579-634 | 602-609 | -- |
Response rate | 64.4% | 58.4% | 62.2% | 63.9% | 70.0% | -- |
Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
Degree of freedom | 4.74 | 4.13[6] | 4.60[6] | 4.60 | 4.68+/-0.27 | +0.09 |
Degree of stability | 3.76[6] | 3.63 | 4.15[6] | 4.15 | 4.17+/-0.23 | +0.02 |
Degree of prosperity | 4.19[6] | 4.15 | 4.30 | 4.57[6] | 4.11+/-0.19 | -0.45[6] |
Compliance with the rule of law | 3.80 | 3.41[6] | 3.82[6] | 4.05 | 4.01+/-0.26 | -0.04 |
Degree of democracy | 3.70[6] | 3.49 | 3.61 | 3.74 | 3.85+/-0.28 | +0.11 |
[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators continue to be lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “stability”, “prosperity”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.68, 4.17, 4.11, 4.01 and 3.85 respectively. Compared with a month ago, rating of “prosperity” has dropped significantly and registered its new low since records began in 1997.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 9 to 13 November, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 7 to 10 December, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
8/12/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures again and empower authorities to impose lockdown and mandatory testing. |
5/12/20 | Designated judge for national security cases Victor So receives death threat. |
3/12/20 | Jimmy Lai is denied bail and remanded in custody. |
2/12/20 | Former Demosistō member Joshua Wong, Ivan Lam and Agnes Chow are sentenced to 7 to 13.5 months in prison. |
30/11/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and sets up a hotline for reporting violations. |
26/11/20 | The Education Bureau introduces reforms to liberal studies. |
25/11/20 | Carrie Lam delivers her Policy Address. |
24/11/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and orders public venues to display QR codes for “Leave Home Safe”. |
21/11/20 | Police arrests 3 people including an online radio host who allegedly violated the national security law by providing financial assistance to secession. |
19/11/20 | The High Court rules that police officers not displaying their identification numbers violated the Bill of Rights. |
14/11/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and imposes mandatory testing. |
11/11/20 | NPCSC disqualifies 4 democrats in LegCo. |
Data Analysis
The latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 30.6 marks, of which 45% of them gave her 0 mark. Her net popularity is negative 50 percentage points. Both popularity figures remain comparable to those registered half a month ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 29.2 marks and his net popularity is negative 34 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan drops by 4.1 marks to 35.4 and his net popularity drops by 11 percentage points to negative 20. Both decrements have gone beyond its sampling error. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 23.3 marks and her net popularity is negative 49 percentage points. Her net popularity figures have not changed much from a month ago, but both figures have registered a new record high since June 2019.
On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators continue to be lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “stability”, “prosperity”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.68, 4.17, 4.11, 4.01 and 3.85 respectively. Compared with a month ago, rating of “prosperity” has dropped significantly and registered its new low since records began in 1997.