發佈會直播
2021年9月7日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
講者:
鍾劍華 - 香港民意研究所副行政總裁
張超雄 - 前立法會議員
任偉豪 - 香港教育中心商會副主席
戴捷輝 - 香港民意研究所經理 (數據科學)
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於八月底由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,003名香港居民。調查顯示，政府信任程度方面，34%被訪市民表示信任香港特區政府，信任北京中央政府及台灣政府的，則佔38%及21%，三項信任淨值分別為負16、負4及負20個百分點。對比半年前，台灣政府的信任淨值進一步下跌11個百分點，創2018年9月以來新低。信心指標方面，60%表示對中國前途有信心，淨值為正27個百分點。另一方面，分別有46%和45%市民表示對香港前途和一國兩制有信心，淨值分別為負1和負6個百分點。以上數字與半年前分別不大。市民最熟悉政治人物方面，最多被訪者提及的首十名政治人物分別為林鄭月娥、董建華、梁振英、陳茂波、曾蔭權、葉劉淑儀、李家超、李柱銘、鄧炳強和李慧琼。當中李家超和鄧炳強的提名比率創歷史新高。對比半年前，8位政治人物能夠蟬聯十大，鄭若驊和張建宗跌出榜外，由李家超和鄧炳強取代。總結過去10次調查的結果，林鄭月娥的平均排名繼續位列榜首，然後是梁振英、曾蔭權和董建華，排名與半年前沒有分別。調查的實效回應比率為52.9%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-8%，評分誤差不超過+/-0.1。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 20-26/8/2021 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,003 (包括505個固網及498個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 52.9% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-8%，評分誤差不超過+/-0.1 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零二零年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2020年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
信任及信心指標
市民對特區、北京中央及台灣政府的信任程度、對中港前途以及一國兩制的信心的最新結果表列如下：
| 調查日期 | 19-22/4/21 | 17-21/5/21 | 21-25/6/21 | 19-22/7/21 | 20-26/8/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 548 | 646 | 583 | 564 | 662 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 54.5% | 52.5% | 49.3% | 48.5% | 52.9% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 信任特區政府比率[3] | 32% | 31% | 34% | 38% | 34+/-4% | -4% |
| 不信任特區政府比率[3] | 52% | 54% | 52% | 50% | 50+/-4% | -1% |
| 信任淨值 | -20% | -22% | -18% | -12% | -16+/-7% | -4% |
| 平均量值[3] | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
| 調查日期 | 15-20/8/19 | 17-19/2/20 | 17-20/8/20 | 24-26/2/21 | 20-26/8/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 603-633 | 575-612 | 597-644 | 575-620 | 666-674 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 68.5% | 64.6% | 60.9% | 57.2% | 52.9% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 信任中央政府比率[3] | 23%[4] | 20% | 28%[4] | 41%[4] | 38+/-4% | -3% |
| 不信任中央政府比率[3] | 63%[4] | 63% | 58% | 43%[4] | 42+/-4% | -1% |
| 信任淨值 | -40%[4] | -43% | -29%[4] | -2%[4] | -4+/-7% | -2% |
| 平均量值[3] | 2.2[4] | 2.1 | 2.4[4] | 2.9[4] | 2.8+/-0.1 | -- |
| 信任台灣政府比率[3] | 25% | 38%[4] | 35% | 30% | 21+/-3% | -9%[4] |
| 不信任台灣政府比率[3] | 37% | 28%[4] | 34%[4] | 39% | 41+/-4% | +2% |
| 信任淨值 | -12% | 10%[4] | 2% | -9%[4] | -20+/-6% | -11%[4] |
| 平均量值[3] | 2.7 | 3.1[4] | 2.9[4] | 2.7[4] | 2.5+/-0.1 | -0.2[4] |
| 對香港前途有信心比率 | 40% | 26%[4] | 38%[4] | 48%[4] | 46+/-4% | -2% |
| 對香港前途沒有信心比率 | 52% | 70%[4] | 57%[4] | 46%[4] | 48+/-4% | +2% |
| 信心淨值 | -12% | -44%[4] | -19%[4] | 3%[4] | -1+/-8% | -4% |
| 對中國前途有信心比率 | 42%[4] | 39% | 43% | 62%[4] | 60+/-4% | -2% |
| 對中國前途沒有信心比率 | 50%[4] | 52% | 48% | 28%[4] | 33+/-4% | +5% |
| 信心淨值 | -8%[4] | -13% | -4% | 34%[4] | 27+/-7% | -7% |
| 對一國兩制有信心比率 | 34%[4] | 27%[4] | 35%[4] | 45%[4] | 45+/-4% | -- |
| 對一國兩制沒有信心比率 | 62%[4] | 68%[4] | 61%[4] | 50%[4] | 51+/-4% | +1% |
| 信心淨值 | -28%[4] | -41%[4] | -26%[4] | -5%[4] | -6+/-8% | -2% |
[3] 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[4] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
政府信任程度方面，34%被訪市民表示信任香港特區政府，信任北京中央政府及台灣政府的，則佔38%及21%，三項信任淨值分別為負16、負4及負20個百分點，平均量值就分別為2.6、2.8及2.5分，即信任香港特區政府及台灣政府程度整體上介乎「幾不信任」及「一半半」之間，而信任北京中央政府程度則接近「一半半」。對比半年前，台灣政府的信任淨值進一步下跌11個百分點，並創2018年9月以來新低。
信心指標方面，60%表示對中國前途有信心，淨值為正27個百分點。另一方面，分別有46%和45%市民表示對香港前途和一國兩制有信心，淨值分別為負1和負6個百分點。以上數字與半年前分別不大。
市民最熟悉政治人物
市民最熟悉政治人物方面，調查中，被訪者可在未經提示下說出最多10名最熟悉的香港在世政治人物。以下是最新調查中前二十名的結果[5]：
| 調查日期 | 1-6/8/19 | 3-6/2/20 | 3-6/8/2020 | 24-26/2/21 | 20-26/8/21 | |||||
| 樣本數目 | 560 | 1,001 | 647 | 500 | 633 | |||||
| 回應比率 | 62.8% | 77.6% | 64.4% | 57.2% | 52.9% | |||||
| 最新結果 | 比率 | 排名 | 比率 | 排名 | 比率 | 排名 | 比率 | 排名 | 比率 | 排名 |
| 林鄭月娥 | 31% | 1 | 31% | 1 | 61% | 1 | 61% | 1 | 59+/-4% | 1 |
| 董建華 | 27% | 2 | 25% | 3 | 18% | 5 | 17% | 5 | 24+/-3% | 2 |
| 梁振英 | 25% | 3 | 21% | 4 | 22% | 3 | 23% | 3 | 24+/-3% | 3 |
| 陳茂波 | 8% | 19 | 9% | 14 | 11% | 11 | 32% | 2 | 18+/-3% | 4 |
| 曾蔭權 | 21% | 4 | 27% | 2 | 13% | 8 | 17% | 6 | 18+/-3% | 5 |
| 葉劉淑儀 | 16% | 6 | 14% | 5 | 17% | 6 | 18% | 4 | 17+/-3% | 6 |
| 李家超 | 3% | 37 | 5% | 26 | 6% | 21 | 2% | -- | 14+/-3% | 7 |
| 李柱銘 | 15% | 8 | 13% | 6 | 12% | 10 | 14% | 9 | 12+/-3% | 8 |
| 鄧炳強 | -- | -- | 3% | 39 | 8% | 17 | 5% | 21 | 11+/-3% | 9 |
| 李慧琼 | 9% | 16 | 9% | 13 | 12% | 9 | 11% | 10 | 10+/-2% | 10 |
| 曾鈺成 | 12% | 12 | 12% | 9 | 9% | 14 | 8% | 15 | 10+/-2% | 11 |
| 鄭若驊 | 6% | 23 | 6% | 21 | 11% | 12 | 16% | 7 | 9+/-2% | 12 |
| 陳方安生 | 20% | 5 | 12% | 7 | 9% | 15 | 6% | 18 | 9+/-2% | 13 |
| 唐英年 | 5% | 25 | 8% | 15 | 5% | 31 | 6% | 19 | 7+/-2% | 14 |
| 梁國雄 | 8% | 17 | 10% | 10 | 8% | 16 | 8% | 14 | 7+/-2% | 15 |
| 張建宗 | 9% | 15 | 8% | 17 | 23% | 2 | 14% | 8 | 7+/-2% | 16 |
| 黃之鋒 | 7% | 21 | 8% | 18 | 19% | 4 | 10% | 11 | 6+/-2% | 17 |
| 曾俊華 | 11% | 13 | 12% | 8 | 5% | 29 | 7% | 17 | 6+/-2% | 18 |
| 譚耀宗 | 2% | -- | 1% | -- | 10% | 13 | 9% | 13 | 6+/-2% | 19 |
| 田北辰 | 6% | 22 | 6% | 22 | 4% | 37 | 3% | 32 | 5+/-2% | 20 |
[5] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。每次調查中，排名第50位以後則視作沒有上榜。
調查結果發現，最多被訪者提及的首十名政治人物分別為林鄭月娥、董建華、梁振英、陳茂波、曾蔭權、葉劉淑儀、李家超、李柱銘、鄧炳強和李慧琼，然後第十一至二十名分別為曾鈺成、鄭若驊、陳方安生、唐英年、梁國雄、張建宗、黃之鋒、曾俊華、譚耀宗和田北辰。當中李家超和鄧炳強的提名比率創歷史新高，而梁國雄的提名比率則創歷史新低。
市民最熟悉政治人物調查的作用，在於以該等人物在巿民心目中熟悉程度的起跌，顯示政治生態的改變。對比半年前，不分民望高低，8位政治人物能夠蟬聯十大，鄭若驊和張建宗跌出榜外，由李家超和鄧炳強取代。
須要註明，「巿民最熟悉政治人物」的排名方法是以被訪者在沒有提示下說出的政治人物計，是量度知名度的方法之一，與支持度無關。換言之，知名度排名很高的政治人物並不一定是最受歡迎的政治人物，而知名度排名偏低的政治人物，亦可能會在有提示的知名度調查中得到不同的排名。但無論如何，能夠在沒有提示的調查中脫穎而出者，肯定是巿民最熟悉的政治人物。
以下是累積過去10次大約跨越5年「巿民最熟悉政治人物」調查的部分結果：
| 總結排名 | 24-27/10/16──24-26/2/21 | 15-18/5/17──20-26/8/21 | ||
| 政治人物 | 10次調查平均排名[6] | 政治人物 | 10次調查平均排名[6] | |
| 1 | 林鄭月娥 | 1.6 | 林鄭月娥 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 梁振英 | 2.7 | 梁振英 | 2.9 |
| 3 | 曾蔭權 | 4.0 | 曾蔭權 | 3.7 |
| 4 | 董建華 | 4.6 | 董建華 | 3.8 |
| 5 | 葉劉淑儀 | 6.0 | 葉劉淑儀 | 6.1 |
| 6 | 李柱銘 | 8.7[7] | 李柱銘 | 8.0 |
| 7 | 梁國雄 | 8.7[7] | 梁國雄 | 9.9 |
| 8 | 曾鈺成 | 9.8 | 曾鈺成 | 10.5 |
| 9 | 曾俊華 | 10.4 | 陳茂波 | 10.8 |
| 10 | 陳方安生 | 12.1 | 陳方安生 | 12.0[7] |
| 11 | 李慧琼 | 12.5 | 曾俊華 | 12.0[7] |
| 12 | 陳茂波 | 15.4 | 李慧琼 | 12.6 |
| 13 | 楊岳橋 | 18.2 | 張建宗 | 15.5 |
| 14 | 唐英年 | 18.4 | 唐英年 | 17.9 |
| 15 | 張建宗 | 18.9 | 黃之鋒 | 18.2 |
| 16 | 黃之鋒 | 21.3 | 楊岳橋 | 18.7 |
| 17 | 田北辰 | 21.7 | 田北辰 | 22.0 |
| 18 | 黃毓民 | 22.4 | 黃毓民 | 25.3 |
| 19 | 陳淑莊 | 25.2 | 陳淑莊 | 27.3 |
| 20 | 范徐麗泰 | 26.7[7] | 李卓人 | 27.8 |
| 20 | 田北俊 | 26.7[7] | -- | -- |
[6] 每次調查中，排名第50位以後或者沒有上榜者，在計算平均排名時，皆作第50名論。
[7] 10次調查平均排名相同。
總結過去10次調查的結果，林鄭月娥的平均排名繼續位列榜首，然後是梁振英、曾蔭權和董建華，排名與半年前沒有分別。總結排名第五至第九位依次為葉劉淑儀、李柱銘、梁國雄、曾鈺成和陳茂波，陳方安生和曾俊華則並列第十位。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事紀錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為24-26/2/2021，而今次調查日期則為20-26/8/2021，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 24/8/21 | 政府提出進一步修訂《電影檢查條例》，禁止不利國家安全電影上映 |
| 23/8/21 | 中央政府官員向港府官員講解「十四五規劃」 |
| 18/8/21 | 警方以涉嫌宣揚恐怖主義拘捕4名港大學生會成員 |
| 15/8/21 | 民間人權陣線宣布解散 |
| 10/8/21 | 教協宣布即將解散 |
| 8/8/21 | 李慧詩奪得奧運女子爭先賽銅牌，港隊共奪得一金兩銀三銅 |
| 6/8/21 | 選舉委員會界別分組選舉提名期開始 |
| 4/8/21 | 政府收緊「回港易」計劃以防澳門Delta變種病毒蔓延香港 |
| 2/8/21 | 政府宣布四類人士如不打針須自費定期檢測 |
| 1/8/21 | 政府派發首期2,000元電子消費券 |
| 31/7/21 | 教育局全面終止與教協的工作關係 |
| 30/7/21 | 唐英傑就煽動分裂國家罪及恐怖活動罪被判囚9年 |
| 16/7/21 | 夏寶龍提出對治港者的五項要求 |
| 11/7/21 | 香港新增1宗新冠肺炎個案，數萬機場員工須強制檢測 |
| 8/7/21 | 柏傲莊III兩幢樓宇混凝土強度不達標，將拆卸重建 |
| 6/7/21 | 警方以涉嫌策劃恐怖襲擊拘捕九人 |
| 5/7/21 | 多名中港官員出席國安法法律論壇 |
| 4/7/21 | 警方以涉嫌網上煽惑暴力拘捕兩人 |
| 3/7/21 | 政府稱七一刺警案為「孤狼式恐怖襲擊」 |
| 2/7/21 | 一名男子於銅鑼灣刺警後自殺身亡 |
| 30/6/21 | 中國共產黨慶祝成立100周年 |
| 25/6/21 | 李家超、鄧炳強及蕭澤頤分別出任政務司司長、保安局局長及警務處處長 |
| 23/6/21 | 蘋果日報出版最後一份報紙，印刷量達一百萬份 |
| 19/6/21 | 壹傳媒兩高層被拒保釋，須還押候訊 |
| 17/6/21 | 警方以國安法拘捕蘋果日報高層並凍結公司資產 |
| 14/6/21 | G7峰會閉幕發表聯合公報多次提及中國 |
| 12/6/21 | 駱惠寧指叫喊「結束一黨專政」者是香港大敵 |
| 11/6/21 | 政府修訂《電影檢查條例》，禁止危害國家安全電影上映 |
| 10/6/21 | 人大常委通過《反外國制裁法》 |
| 4/6/21 | 警方封鎖維園，阻止六四悼念集會 |
| 31/5/21 | 政府擬限制未接種疫苗者進入各類場所 |
| 30/5/21 | 政府和商界推出措施鼓勵接種疫苗 |
| 28/5/21 | 十位知名民主派人士就10月1日集會案被判罪成入獄 |
| 27/5/21 | 立法會通過修改選舉制度 |
| 25/5/21 | 政府宣布將為持雙程證者和難民接種新冠疫苗 |
| 21/5/21 | 部分大學和企業推出措施鼓勵接種疫苗 |
| 19/5/21 | 政府公布接種疫苗後異常事件的數據 |
| 15/5/21 | 台灣新增180宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 14/5/21 | 政府引用國安法凍結黎智英私人財產 |
| 11/5/21 | 政府購買東京奧運轉播權予五間電視台 |
| 7/5/21 | 政府宣布接種疫苗可以縮短檢疫期 |
| 30/4/21 | 政府宣布全港外傭須接受強制檢測 |
| 27/4/21 | 政府以「疫苗氣泡」為基礎放寬部分防疫措施 |
| 23/4/21 | 香港民族陣綫前成員管有炸藥罪成，判囚12年 |
| 16/4/21 | 九位知名民主派人士就8月18日集會案被判罪成入獄 |
| 15/4/21 | 政府舉辦「全民國家安全教育日」 |
| 13/4/21 | 政府將立法禁止公開呼籲不投票或投白票廢票 |
| 10/4/21 | 阿里巴巴違反《反壟斷法》，被罰182億元人民幣 |
| 30/3/21 | 人大常委通過修訂基本法，修改香港的選舉制度 |
| 25/3/21 | 國際品牌拒用新疆棉花，中國消費者發起抵制運動 |
| 24/3/21 | 政府因復必泰疫苗包裝瑕疵宣布暫停接種 |
| 19/3/21 | 中美官員於阿拉斯加會談 |
| 17/3/21 | 港澳辦和中聯辦就修改香港選舉制度舉辦座談會 |
| 15/3/21 | 政府擴大新冠疫苗接種優先組別範圍 |
| 11/3/21 | 全國人大會議通過修改香港的選舉制度 |
| 5/3/21 | 全國人大十三屆四次會議開幕，李克強發表政府工作報告 |
| 3/3/21 | 專家委員會指63歲男子死亡事件與疫苗無關 |
| 2/3/21 | 63歲男子接種科興疫苗後死亡 |
| 28/2/21 | 47名民主派人士被控「串謀顛覆國家政權罪」 |
數據分析
調查顯示，政府信任程度方面，34%被訪市民表示信任香港特區政府，信任北京中央政府及台灣政府的，則佔38%及21%，三項信任淨值分別為負16、負4及負20個百分點。對比半年前，台灣政府的信任淨值進一步下跌11個百分點，創2018年9月以來新低。信心指標方面，60%表示對中國前途有信心，淨值為正27個百分點。另一方面，分別有46%和45%市民表示對香港前途和一國兩制有信心，淨值分別為負1和負6個百分點。以上數字與半年前分別不大。
市民最熟悉政治人物方面，最多被訪者提及的首十名政治人物分別為林鄭月娥、董建華、梁振英、陳茂波、曾蔭權、葉劉淑儀、李家超、李柱銘、鄧炳強和李慧琼，然後第十一至二十名分別為曾鈺成、鄭若驊、陳方安生、唐英年、梁國雄、張建宗、黃之鋒、曾俊華、譚耀宗和田北辰。當中李家超和鄧炳強的提名比率創歷史新高，而梁國雄的提名比率則創歷史新低。對比半年前，8位政治人物能夠蟬聯十大，鄭若驊和張建宗跌出榜外，由李家超和鄧炳強取代。總結過去10次調查的結果，林鄭月娥的平均排名繼續位列榜首，然後是梁振英、曾蔭權和董建華，排名與半年前沒有分別。
Sep 07, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Special Announcement
Press Conference Live
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was the Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,003 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in late August. Our survey shows that regarding people’s trust in governments, 34% of the respondents trust the HKSAR Government, 38% trust the Beijing Central Government, and 21% trust the Taiwan Government. The net trust values are negative 16, negative 4 and negative 20 percentage points respectively. Compared to half a year ago, net trust in the Taiwan Government has further decreased by 11 percentage points, registering a new low since September 2018. As for the confidence indicators, 60% expressed confidence in the future of China while net confidence stands at positive 27 percentage points. On the other hand, 46% and 45% expressed confidence in the future of Hong Kong and in “one country, two systems” respectively, while net confidence stands at negative 1 and negative 6 percentage points respectively. All these figures have not changed much from half a year ago. Regarding people’s most familiar political figures, survey results show that the 10 most frequently named political figures were Carrie Lam, Tung Chee-hwa, Leung Chun-ying, Paul Chan, Donald Tsang, Regina Ip, John Lee, Martin Lee, Chris Tang and Starry Lee. Among them, the naming percentages for John Lee and Chris Tang have registered historical highs. Compared to half a year ago, 8 political figures remain in the top 10. Teresa Cheng and Matthew Cheung have fallen out of the list as replaced by John Lee and Chris Tang. Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Carrie Lam continued to occupy the highest rank on average, followed by Leung Chun-ying, Donald Tsang and Tung Chee-hwa. These overall rankings remained the same as those registered half a year ago. The effective response rate of the survey is 52.9%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-8% and that of ratings is +/-0.1 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 20-26/8/2021 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,003 (including 505 landline and 498 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 52.9% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-8% and that of ratings not more than +/-0.1 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Trust and Confidence Indicators
Recent trust in SAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan Governments and people’s confidence in the future as well as “one country, two systems” are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 19-22/4/21 | 17-21/5/21 | 21-25/6/21 | 19-22/7/21 | 20-26/8/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 548 | 646 | 583 | 564 | 662 | -- |
| Response rate | 54.5% | 52.5% | 49.3% | 48.5% | 52.9% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Trust in HKSAR Government[3] | 32% | 31% | 34% | 38% | 34+/-4% | -4% |
| Distrust in HKSAR Government[3] | 52% | 54% | 52% | 50% | 50+/-4% | -1% |
| Net trust | -20% | -22% | -18% | -12% | -16+/-7% | -4% |
| Mean value[3] | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
| Date of survey | 15-20/8/19 | 17-19/2/20 | 17-20/8/20 | 24-26/2/21 | 20-26/8/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 603-633 | 575-612 | 597-644 | 575-620 | 666-674 | -- |
| Response rate | 68.5% | 64.6% | 60.9% | 57.2% | 52.9% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Trust in Beijing Government[3] | 23%[4] | 20% | 28%[4] | 41%[4] | 38+/-4% | -3% |
| Distrust in Beijing Government[3] | 63%[4] | 63% | 58% | 43%[4] | 42+/-4% | -1% |
| Net trust | -40%[4] | -43% | -29%[4] | -2%[4] | -4+/-7% | -2% |
| Mean value[3] | 2.2[4] | 2.1 | 2.4[4] | 2.9[4] | 2.8+/-0.1 | -- |
| Trust in Taiwan Government[3] | 25% | 38%[4] | 35% | 30% | 21+/-3% | -9%[4] |
| Distrust in Taiwan Government[3] | 37% | 28%[4] | 34%[4] | 39% | 41+/-4% | +2% |
| Net trust | -12% | 10%[4] | 2% | -9%[4] | -20+/-6% | -11%[4] |
| Mean value[3] | 2.7 | 3.1[4] | 2.9[4] | 2.7[4] | 2.5+/-0.1 | -0.2[4] |
| Confidence in HK’s future | 40% | 26%[4] | 38%[4] | 48%[4] | 46+/-4% | -2% |
| No-confidence in HK’s future | 52% | 70%[4] | 57%[4] | 46%[4] | 48+/-4% | +2% |
| Net confidence | -12% | -44%[4] | -19%[4] | 3%[4] | -1+/-8% | -4% |
| Confidence in China’s future | 42%[4] | 39% | 43% | 62%[4] | 60+/-4% | -2% |
| No-confidence in China’s future | 50%[4] | 52% | 48% | 28%[4] | 33+/-4% | +5% |
| Net confidence | -8%[4] | -13% | -4% | 34%[4] | 27+/-7% | -7% |
| Confidence in “one country, two systems” |
34%[4] | 27%[4] | 35%[4] | 45%[4] | 45+/-4% | -- |
| No-confidence in “one country, two systems” |
62%[4] | 68%[4] | 61%[4] | 50%[4] | 51+/-4% | +1% |
| Net confidence | -28%[4] | -41%[4] | -26%[4] | -5%[4] | -6+/-8% | -2% |
[3] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Regarding people’s trust in governments, 34% of the respondents trust the HKSAR Government, 38% trust the Beijing Central Government, and 21% trust the Taiwan Government. The net trust values are negative 16, negative 4 and negative 20 percentage points, while the mean scores are 2.6, 2.8 and 2.5 respectively, meaning trust in the HKSAR Government and Taiwan Government are between “quite distrust” and “half-half” in general whilst trust in the Beijing Central Government is close to “half-half” in general. Compared to half a year ago, net trust in the Taiwan Government has further decreased by 11 percentage points, registering a new low since September 2018.
As for the confidence indicators, 60% expressed confidence in the future of China while net confidence stands at positive 27 percentage points. On the other hand, 46% and 45% expressed confidence in the future of Hong Kong and in “one country, two systems” respectively, while net confidence stands at negative 1 and negative 6 percentage points respectively. All these figures have not changed much from half a year ago.
People’s Most Familiar Political Figures
As for people’s most familiar political figures, in the survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 Hong Kong political figures currently alive whom they knew best. Results of the top 20 figures in the latest survey are summarized below[5]:
| Date of survey | 1-6/8/19 | 3-6/2/20 | 3-6/8/2020 | 24-26/2/21 | 20-26/8/21 | |||||
| Sample size | 560 | 1,001 | 647 | 500 | 633 | |||||
| Response rate | 62.8% | 77.6% | 64.4% | 57.2% | 52.9% | |||||
| Latest findings | % | Rank | % | Rank | % | Rank | % | Rank | % | Rank |
| Carrie Lam | 31% | 1 | 31% | 1 | 61% | 1 | 61% | 1 | 59+/-4% | 1 |
| Tung Chee-hwa | 27% | 2 | 25% | 3 | 18% | 5 | 17% | 5 | 24+/-3% | 2 |
| Leung Chun-ying | 25% | 3 | 21% | 4 | 22% | 3 | 23% | 3 | 24+/-3% | 3 |
| Paul Chan | 8% | 19 | 9% | 14 | 11% | 11 | 32% | 2 | 18+/-3% | 4 |
| Donald Tsang | 21% | 4 | 27% | 2 | 13% | 8 | 17% | 6 | 18+/-3% | 5 |
| Regina Ip | 16% | 6 | 14% | 5 | 17% | 6 | 18% | 4 | 17+/-3% | 6 |
| John Lee | 3% | 37 | 5% | 26 | 6% | 21 | 2% | -- | 14+/-3% | 7 |
| Martin Lee | 15% | 8 | 13% | 6 | 12% | 10 | 14% | 9 | 12+/-3% | 8 |
| Chris Tang | -- | -- | 3% | 39 | 8% | 17 | 5% | 21 | 11+/-3% | 9 |
| Starry Lee | 9% | 16 | 9% | 13 | 12% | 9 | 11% | 10 | 10+/-2% | 10 |
| Jasper Tsang | 12% | 12 | 12% | 9 | 9% | 14 | 8% | 15 | 10+/-2% | 11 |
| Teresa Cheng | 6% | 23 | 6% | 21 | 11% | 12 | 16% | 7 | 9+/-2% | 12 |
| Anson Chan | 20% | 5 | 12% | 7 | 9% | 15 | 6% | 18 | 9+/-2% | 13 |
| Henry Tang | 5% | 25 | 8% | 15 | 5% | 31 | 6% | 19 | 7+/-2% | 14 |
| Leung Kwok-hung | 8% | 17 | 10% | 10 | 8% | 16 | 8% | 14 | 7+/-2% | 15 |
| Matthew Cheung | 9% | 15 | 8% | 17 | 23% | 2 | 14% | 8 | 7+/-2% | 16 |
| Joshua Wong | 7% | 21 | 8% | 18 | 19% | 4 | 10% | 11 | 6+/-2% | 17 |
| John Tsang | 11% | 13 | 12% | 8 | 5% | 29 | 7% | 17 | 6+/-2% | 18 |
| Tam Yiu-chung | 2% | -- | 1% | -- | 10% | 13 | 9% | 13 | 6+/-2% | 19 |
| Michael Tien | 6% | 22 | 6% | 22 | 4% | 37 | 3% | 32 | 5+/-2% | 20 |
[5] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered. For each survey, those who ranked beyond the 50th would be considered not on the list.
Survey results show that the 10 most frequently named political figures were Carrie Lam, Tung Chee-hwa, Leung Chun-ying, Paul Chan, Donald Tsang, Regina Ip, John Lee, Martin Lee, Chris Tang and Starry Lee, followed by Jasper Tsang, Teresa Cheng, Anson Chan, Henry Tang, Leung Kwok-hung, Matthew Cheung, Joshua Wong, John Tsang, Tam Yiu-chung and Michael Tien who rank from eleventh to twentieth. Among them, the naming percentages for John Lee and Chris Tang have registered historical highs, whereas the naming percentage for Leung Kwok-hung has registered a new low.
The purpose of the “people’s most familiar political figures” survey is to show the changing political ecology by studying the ups and downs of people’s familiarity with these figures over time. Compared to half a year ago, regardless of their popularities, 8 political figures remain in the top 10. Teresa Cheng and Matthew Cheung have fallen out of the list as replaced by John Lee and Chris Tang.
It should be noted, however, that our ranking of “people’s most familiar political figures” is based on our surveys which requested respondents to name local political figures without prompting. This kind of familiarity measurement is not the same as prompted ratings. In other words, those high on the list may not be the most supported figures, while those lower may have a different ranking if we use a prompting method. However, those who scored best in unprompted surveys are no doubt the most well-known political figures in Hong Kong.
Herewith some of the results of our “people’s most familiar political figures” surveys accumulated over past 10 surveys spanning over about five years:
| Overall rank | 24-27/10/16──24-26/2/21 | 15-18/5/17──20-26/8/21 | ||
| Political figures | Average rank for 10 surveys[6] |
Political figures | Average rank for 10 surveys[6] |
|
| 1 | Carrie Lam | 1.6 | Carrie Lam | 1.1 |
| 2 | Leung Chun-ying | 2.7 | Leung Chun-ying | 2.9 |
| 3 | Donald Tsang | 4.0 | Donald Tsang | 3.7 |
| 4 | Tung Chee-hwa | 4.6 | Tung Chee-hwa | 3.8 |
| 5 | Regina Ip | 6.0 | Regina Ip | 6.1 |
| 6 | Martin Lee | 8.7[7] | Martin Lee | 8.0 |
| 7 | Leung Kwok-hung | 8.7[7] | Leung Kwok-hung | 9.9 |
| 8 | Jasper Tsang | 9.8 | Jasper Tsang | 10.5 |
| 9 | John Tsang | 10.4 | Paul Chan | 10.8 |
| 10 | Anson Chan | 12.1 | Anson Chan | 12.0[7] |
| 11 | Starry Lee | 12.5 | John Tsang | 12.0[7] |
| 12 | Paul Chan | 15.4 | Starry Lee | 12.6 |
| 13 | Alvin Yeung | 18.2 | Matthew Cheung | 15.5 |
| 14 | Henry Tang | 18.4 | Henry Tang | 17.9 |
| 15 | Matthew Cheung | 18.9 | Joshua Wong | 18.2 |
| 16 | Joshua Wong | 21.3 | Alvin Yeung | 18.7 |
| 17 | Michael Tien | 21.7 | Michael Tien | 22.0 |
| 18 | Raymond Wong | 22.4 | Raymond Wong | 25.3 |
| 19 | Tanya Chan | 25.2 | Tanya Chan | 27.3 |
| 20 | Rita Fan | 26.7[7] | Lee Cheuk-yan | 27.8 |
| 20 | James Tien | 26.7[7] | -- | -- |
[6] For each survey, those who ranked beyond the 50th and those not on the list are counted as 50th in our calculation of average ranks.
[7] The average ranks for 10 surveys are identical.
Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Carrie Lam continued to occupy the highest rank on average, followed by Leung Chun-ying, Donald Tsang and Tung Chee-hwa. These overall rankings remained the same as those registered half a year ago. Meanwhile, Regina Ip, Martin Lee, Leung Kwok-hung, Jasper Tsang and Paul Chan occupied the 5th to 9th ranks overall, while Anson Chan and John Tsang shared the 10th rank.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 24 to 26 February, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 20 to 26 August, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 24/8/21 | The government further amends the “Film Censorship Ordinance” to ban exhibition of films that are contrary to the interests of national security. |
| 23/8/21 | Officials from the Central Government explain the 14th five-year plan to Hong Kong government officials. |
| 18/8/21 | Police arrests four members of the HKU Students’ Union who allegedly advocated terrorism. |
| 15/8/21 | Civil Human Rights Front announces its disbandment. |
| 10/8/21 | The Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union announces it will be dissolved. |
| 8/8/21 | Sarah Lee wins bronze in the women’s cycling sprint in the Olympics, meaning one gold, two silver and three bronze medals for Hong Kong. |
| 6/8/21 | The nomination period for the Election Committee Subsector Elections begins. |
| 4/8/21 | The government tightens requirements for the Return2hk scheme to prevent spread of the Delta variant from Macau. |
| 2/8/21 | The government requires four targeted groups to undergo regular testing at their own expense if they do not get vaccinated. |
| 1/8/21 | The government delivers the first batch of electronic consumption vouchers worth $2,000. |
| 31/7/21 | The Education Bureau terminates all working relations with Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union. |
| 30/7/21 | Tong Ying-kit is jailed for 9 years for inciting secession and terrorism. |
| 16/7/21 | Xia Baolong spells out five qualities people who govern Hong Kong must possess. |
| 11/7/21 | Hong Kong confirms a case of coronavirus disease, leading to compulsory testing for tens of thousands of airport staff. |
| 8/7/21 | Two towers of The Pavilia Farm III will be demolished and rebuilt for failing to meet concrete strength requirement. |
| 6/7/21 | Police arrests nine people who allegedly plotted terrorist attacks. |
| 5/7/21 | Mainland and Hong Kong officials attend a legal forum on national security law. |
| 4/7/21 | Police arrests two people who allegedly incited violence online. |
| 3/7/21 | The government calls the July 1 stabbing a “lone wolf terrorist attack”. |
| 2/7/21 | A man kills himself after stabbing a police officer in Causeway Bay. |
| 30/6/21 | Chinese Communist Party celebrates its 100th anniversary. |
| 25/6/21 | John Lee, Chris Tang and Raymond Siu are appointed as Chief Secretary, Secretary for Security and Commissioner of Police respectively. |
| 23/6/21 | Apple Daily prints one million copies of its final issue. |
| 19/6/21 | Two Next Digital senior executives are denied bail and remanded in custody. |
| 17/6/21 | Police arrests senior executives of Apple Daily and freezes assets of the company under the national security law. |
| 14/6/21 | G7 summit ends and issues communique that mentions China multiple times. |
| 12/6/21 | Luo Huining says people who shout “end one-party rule” are enemies of Hong Kong. |
| 11/6/21 | The government amends the “Film Censorship Ordinance” to ban exhibition of films that endanger national security. |
| 10/6/21 | NPCSC passes “Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law”. |
| 4/6/21 | Police locks down Victoria Park to prevent June 4 vigil. |
| 31/5/21 | The government plans to restrict unvaccinated persons from entering various premises. |
| 30/5/21 | The government and the business sector launch initiatives to encourage vaccination. |
| 28/5/21 | 10 famous democrats are convicted and jailed for 10.1 assembly. |
| 27/5/21 | The Legislative Council passes amendments to Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
| 25/5/21 | The government announces it will arrange vaccination for holders of the Exit-entry Permit and refugees. |
| 21/5/21 | Some universities and corporations launch initiatives to encourage vaccination. |
| 19/5/21 | The government releases data on adverse events after vaccination. |
| 15/5/21 | Taiwan confirms 180 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 14/5/21 | The government freezes Jimmy Lai’s personal assets under the national security law. |
| 11/5/21 | The government purchases the broadcasting rights of the Tokyo Olympics for five television stations. |
| 7/5/21 | The government announces that vaccinated person can have shorter quarantine period. |
| 30/4/21 | The government imposes mandatory testing for all foreign domestic helpers in Hong Kong. |
| 27/4/21 | The government relaxes some anti-epidemic measures with “vaccine bubble” as the basis. |
| 23/4/21 | Former member of Hong Kong National Front is jailed for 12 years for possessing explosives. |
| 16/4/21 | 9 famous democrats are convicted and jailed for 8.18 assembly. |
| 15/4/21 | The government holds “National Security Education Day”. |
| 13/4/21 | The government will make law to ban public call to not vote or cast blank or spoilt votes. |
| 10/4/21 | Alibaba is fined RMB 18.2 billion for violating anti-monopoly law. |
| 30/3/21 | NPCSC passes amendments to the Basic Law to amend Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
| 25/3/21 | Chinese consumers start a boycott campaign against international brands refusing to use Xinjiang cottons. |
| 24/3/21 | The government halts BioNTech vaccination because of packaging defects. |
| 19/3/21 | China and US officials meet in Alaska. |
| 17/3/21 | The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and the Liaison Office hold seminars on amending Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
| 15/3/21 | The government expands COVID-19 vaccination priority groups’ coverage. |
| 11/3/21 | The National People’s Congress passes bill on amending Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
| 5/3/21 | The fourth session of the 13th National People’s Congress begins, Li Keqiang delivers the government work report. |
| 3/3/21 | Expert committee finds no link between Sinovac vaccine and the death of the male aged 63. |
| 2/3/21 | A male of age 63 dies after taking the Sinovac vaccine. |
| 28/2/21 | 47 democrats are charged with “conspiracy to commit subversion”. |
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that regarding people’s trust in governments, 34% of the respondents trust the HKSAR Government, 38% trust the Beijing Central Government, and 21% trust the Taiwan Government. The net trust values are negative 16, negative 4 and negative 20 percentage points respectively. Compared to half a year ago, net trust in the Taiwan Government has further decreased by 11 percentage points, registering a new low since September 2018. As for the confidence indicators, 60% expressed confidence in the future of China while net confidence stands at positive 27 percentage points. On the other hand, 46% and 45% expressed confidence in the future of Hong Kong and in “one country, two systems” respectively, while net confidence stands at negative 1 and negative 6 percentage points respectively. All these figures have not changed much from half a year ago.
Regarding people’s most familiar political figures, survey results show that the 10 most frequently named political figures were Carrie Lam, Tung Chee-hwa, Leung Chun-ying, Paul Chan, Donald Tsang, Regina Ip, John Lee, Martin Lee, Chris Tang and Starry Lee, followed by Jasper Tsang, Teresa Cheng, Anson Chan, Henry Tang, Leung Kwok-hung, Matthew Cheung, Joshua Wong, John Tsang, Tam Yiu-chung and Michael Tien who rank from eleventh to twentieth. Among them, the naming percentages for John Lee and Chris Tang have registered historical highs, whereas the naming percentage for Leung Kwok-hung has registered a new low. Compared to half a year ago, 8 political figures remain in the top 10. Teresa Cheng and Matthew Cheung have fallen out of the list as replaced by John Lee and Chris Tang. Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Carrie Lam continued to occupy the highest rank on average, followed by Leung Chun-ying, Donald Tsang and Tung Chee-hwa. These overall rankings remained the same as those registered half a year ago.
