2021年10月26日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會直播
講者:
鍾劍華 - 香港民意研究所副行政總裁
龔偉森 - 前香港政策透視主席、大專兼任講師及青年工作社工
戴捷輝 - 香港民意研究所經理 (數據科學)
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於十月下旬由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,000名香港居民。調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為37.0分，有32%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，民望淨值為負42個百分點，評分和民望淨值相比半個月前均沒有顯著變化。特區政府方面，最新滿意率淨值為負29個百分點，再創2019年5月以來新高，信任淨值則為負6個百分點，亦創2019年1月以來新高。至於市民對現時經濟、民生及政治狀況的評價，滿意淨值就分別為負26、負27及負28個百分點，當中民生狀況滿意淨值創2018年12月以來新高。台灣及西藏問題方面，香港市民對兩岸統一有信心的淨值為負9個百分點，較半年前上升9個百分點，雖然變化未超過抽樣誤差，但就創2012年以來新高。國際空間方面，贊成台灣重新加入聯合國的淨值為正2個百分點，再創2011年以來新低。另外，認為「一國兩制」適用於台灣的淨值為負18個百分點，創2018年以來新高。台灣獨立方面，贊成淨值為負29個百分點，較半年前顯著下跌10個百分點，創2017年以來新低。至於西藏問題方面，贊成西藏獨立的淨值為負37個百分點，與半年前分別不大。民情指數方面，最新數字為86.5，比十月上旬上升1.1點。調查的實效回應比率為52.2%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-8%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.1。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 18-22/10/2021 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,000 (包括500個固網及500個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 52.2% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-8%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.1 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零二零年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2020年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
特首及特區政府民望
以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 9-12/8/21 | 20-26/8/21 | 6-10/9/21 | 16-23/9/21 | 4-7/10/21[3] | 18-22/10/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,002 | 1,003 | 1,000 | 1,036 | 1,010 | 1,000 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 49.4% | 52.9% | 44.2% | 44.1% | 62.9% | 52.2% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特首林鄭月娥評分 | 35.1 | 33.8 | 35.6 | 33.9 | 38.3[4] | 37.0+/-2.1 | -1.3 |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首支持率 | 20% | 20% | 24%[4] | 20%[4] | 24%[4] | 22+/-3% | -2% |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首反對率 | 66% | 68% | 65% | 66% | 59%[4] | 64+/-3% | +5%[4] |
| 支持率淨值 | -46% | -48% | -41% | -46% | -35%[4] | -42+/-5% | -7% |
[3] 香港民研在兩次定期評分之間，在6/10/2021進行了施政報告即時調查，結果是特首評分5分，特首支持率淨值負48個百分點。由於定期評分調查不設網上調查部分，而調查亦在施政報告前兩天開始，因此數字較適宜與上次於16-23/9/2021進行的定期調查比較。
[4] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是特區政府的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 17-21/5/21 | 21-25/6/21 | 19-22/7/21 | 20-26/8/21 | 16-23/9/21 | 18-22/10/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 566-646 | 544-583 | 564-624 | 651-662 | 666-703 | 598-622 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 52.5% | 49.3% | 48.5% | 52.9% | 44.1% | 52.2% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特區政府表現滿意率[5] | 17% | 24%[6] | 24% | 21% | 25% | 26+/-3% | +1% |
| 特區政府表現不滿率[5] | 63% | 60% | 58% | 59% | 54% | 55+/-4% | -- |
| 滿意率淨值 | -46% | -36%[6] | -34% | -38% | -30% | -29+/-7% | +1% |
| 平均量值[5] | 2.1 | 2.3[6] | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4+/-0.1 | -- |
| 信任特區政府比率[5] | 31% | 34% | 38% | 34% | 35% | 38+/-4% | +3% |
| 不信任特區政府比率[5] | 54% | 52% | 50% | 50% | 48% | 44+/-4% | -4% |
| 信任淨值 | -22% | -18% | -12% | -16% | -13% | -6+/-7% | +7% |
| 平均量值[5] | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
[5] 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[6] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是市民對社會狀況的最新評價：
| 調查日期 | 17-21/5/21 | 21-25/6/21 | 19-22/7/21 | 20-26/8/21 | 16-23/9/21 | 18-22/10/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,004 | 1,014 | 1,000 | 1,003 | 1,036 | 1,000 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 52.5% | 49.3% | 48.5% | 52.9% | 44.1% | 52.2% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 現時經濟狀況滿意率[7] | 17%[8] | 18% | 20% | 23% | 21% | 25+/-3% | +4%[8] |
| 現時經濟狀況不滿率[7] | 60% | 56%[8] | 54% | 51% | 53% | 51+/-3% | -2% |
| 滿意率淨值 | -43% | -38% | -33% | -28% | -32% | -26+/-5% | +6% |
| 平均量值[7] | 2.3 | 2.4[8] | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
| 現時民生狀況滿意率[7] | 18% | 19% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 25+/-3% | +1% |
| 現時民生狀況不滿率[7] | 62% | 56%[8] | 57% | 54% | 52% | 52+/-3% | -1% |
| 滿意率淨值 | -44% | -36%[8] | -36% | -34% | -29% | -27+/-5% | +2% |
| 平均量值[7] | 2.2 | 2.4[8] | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4+/-0.1 | -- |
| 現時政治狀況滿意率[7] | 20% | 20% | 26%[8] | 24% | 28%[8] | 25+/-3% | -3% |
| 現時政治狀況不滿率[7] | 61% | 61% | 57%[8] | 58% | 54% | 53+/-3% | -1% |
| 滿意率淨值 | -40% | -41% | -30%[8] | -34% | -25%[8] | -28+/-5% | -3% |
| 平均量值[7] | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.3[8] | 2.3 | 2.4[8] | 2.4+/-0.1 | -- |
[7] 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[8] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為37.0分，有32%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，其支持率為22%，反對率為64%，民望淨值為負42個百分點，評分和民望淨值相比半個月前均沒有顯著變化。
特區政府方面，最新滿意率為26%，不滿率為55%，滿意率淨值為負29個百分點，再創2019年5月以來新高。而平均量值為2.4分，即整體上介乎「幾不滿」及「一半半」之間。信任程度方面，最新信任比率為38%，不信任比率44%，信任淨值為負6個百分點，創2019年1月以來新高。而平均量值為2.7分，即整體上介乎「幾不信任」及「一半半」之間。以上全部數字與一個月前分別不大。
至於市民對現時經濟、民生及政治狀況的評價，最新滿意率均為25%，而滿意淨值就分別為負26、負27及負28個百分點，三者的平均量值介乎2.4至2.5，即整體上介乎「幾不滿」及「一半半」之間。三者的滿意淨值相比一個月前均沒有顯著變化，但民生狀況滿意淨值就創2018年12月以來新高。
台灣及西藏問題調查
市民對台灣及西藏問題意見的最新結果表列如下：
| 調查日期 | 2-8/7/19 | 3-8/1/20 | 19-22/10/20 | 19-22/4/21 | 18-22/10/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目[9] | 575-648 | 585-657 | 593-629 | 592-613 | 583-614 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 67.4% | 72.0% | 62.2% | 54.5% | 52.2% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 兩岸統一信心正面比率 | 27% | 19%[10] | 26%[10] | 33%[10] | 37+/-4% | +4% |
| 兩岸統一信心負面比率 | 65% | 72%[10] | 61%[10] | 51%[10] | 46+/-4% | -5% |
| 信心淨值 | -38% | -53%[10] | -36%[10] | -18%[10] | -9+/-8% | +9% |
| 贊成台灣重新加入聯合國比率 | 57% | 63% | 53%[10] | 44%[10] | 40+/-4% | -5% |
| 反對台灣重新加入聯合國比率 | 27% | 26% | 27% | 38%[10] | 37+/-4% | -- |
| 贊成淨值 | 31% | 36% | 26%[10] | 6%[10] | 2+/-7% | -4% |
| 認為一國兩制適用於台灣的比率 | 27% | 21%[10] | 18% | 27%[10] | 31+/-4% | +5% |
| 認為一國兩制不適用於台灣的比率 | 63% | 66% | 63% | 50%[10] | 49+/-4% | -1% |
| 適用淨值 | -36% | -45% | -45% | -23%[10] | -18+/-7% | +5% |
| 贊成台灣獨立比率 | 44%[10] | 48% | 41%[10] | 32%[10] | 26+/-4% | -6%[10] |
| 反對台灣獨立比率 | 44%[10] | 39%[10] | 41% | 50%[10] | 55+/-4% | +5% |
| 贊成淨值 | 0%[10] | 9% | 0% | -18%[10] | -29+/-7% | -10%[10] |
| 贊成西藏獨立比率 | 26%[10] | 34%[10] | 28% | 19%[10] | 18+/-3% | -1% |
| 反對西藏獨立比率 | 53% | 46%[10] | 41% | 57%[10] | 55+/-4% | -2% |
| 贊成淨值 | -27%[10] | -13%[10] | -13% | -38%[10] | -37+/-6% | +1% |
[9] 民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字，2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。
[10] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，37%被訪的香港市民表示對兩岸統一有信心，46%表示沒有信心，信心淨值為負9個百分點，較半年前上升9個百分點，雖然變化未超過抽樣誤差，但就創2012年以來新高。國際空間方面，40%贊成台灣重新加入聯合國，反對的佔37%，贊成淨值為正2個百分點，再創2011年以來新低。另外，31%認為「一國兩制」適用於台灣，認為不適用的佔49%，適用淨值為負18個百分點，創2018年以來新高。台灣獨立方面，26%表示贊成，反對的佔55%，贊成淨值為負29個百分點，較半年前顯著下跌10個百分點，創2017年以來新低。至於西藏問題方面，55%被訪的香港市民反對西藏獨立，贊成者佔18%，贊成淨值為負37個百分點，與半年前分別不大。
民情指數
民研計劃制定「民情指數」（PSI），目的在於量化香港市民對香港社會的情緒反應，以解釋及預視社會出現集體行動的可能性。民情指數包涵了「政通」和「人和」兩個概念，分別以「政評數值（GA）」和「社評數值（SA）」顯示。「政評數值（GA）」泛指市民對整體政府管治的表現評價，而「社評數值（SA）」則泛指市民對整體社會狀況的評價，分別由四及六項民意數字組合而成。指數本身及兩項數值均以0至200顯示，100代表正常。
以下為民情指數、政評數值及社評數值走勢圖：
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| 最新數值 | 民情指數：86.5 (+1.1) | 政評數值：80.5 (+0.9) | 社評數值：88.1 (+1.1) |
以下是民情指數、政評數值、社評數值，及十項基礎民意數字的近期數值：
| 截數日期 | 12/8/21 | 26/8/21 | 10/9/21 | 23/9/21 | 7/10/21 | 22/10/21 | 最新變化 |
| 民情指數 | 81.3 | 80.7 | 81.6 | 83.5 | 85.4 | 86.5 | +1.1 |
| 政評數值 | 76.1 | 73.7 | 75.4 | 76.3 | 79.6 | 80.5 | +0.9 |
| 特首評分 | 35.1 | 33.8 | 35.6 | 33.9 | 38.3 | 37.0 | -1.3 |
| 特首民望淨值 | -46% | -48% | -41% | -46% | -35% | -42% | -7% |
| 政府滿意程度平均量值 | 2.3[11] | 2.3 | 2.3[11] | 2.4 | 2.4[11] | 2.4 | -- |
| 政府信任程度平均量值 | 2.7[11] | 2.6 | 2.6[11] | 2.6 | 2.6[11] | 2.7 | +0.1 |
| 社評數值 | 83.3[11] | 84.5 | 84.5[11] | 87.0 | 87.0[11] | 88.1 | +1.1 |
| 政治狀況滿意程度 | 2.3[11] | 2.3 | 2.3[11] | 2.4 | 2.4[11] | 2.4 | -- |
| 政治狀況成份指標權數 | 0.31[11] | 0.31[11] | 0.31[11] | 0.31[11] | 0.31[11] | 0.31[11] | -- |
| 經濟狀況滿意程度 | 2.4[11] | 2.5 | 2.5[11] | 2.4 | 2.4[11] | 2.5 | +0.1 |
| 經濟狀況成份指標權數 | 0.34[11] | 0.34[11] | 0.34[11] | 0.34[11] | 0.34[11] | 0.34[11] | -- |
| 民生狀況滿意程度 | 2.4[11] | 2.4 | 2.4[11] | 2.5 | 2.5[11] | 2.4 | -- |
| 民生狀況成份指標權數 | 0.35[11] | 0.35[11] | 0.35[11] | 0.35[11] | 0.35[11] | 0.35[11] | -- |
[11] 當有關數字沒有更新時，民研計劃會採用最近一次已公佈的數字替代。
各項指數的具體數值，可按下表理解：
| 指數得分 | 百分位數 | 指數得分 | 百分位數 |
| 140-200 | 最高1% | 0-60 | 最低1% |
| 125 | 最高5% | 75 | 最低5% |
| 120 | 最高10% | 80 | 最低10% |
| 110 | 最高25% | 90 | 最低25% |
| 100為正常數值，即半數在上，半數在下 | |||
民情指數較十月上旬上升1.1點至86.5，數字可以視為過去逾二十年來最差的18個百分比。民情指數的兩個成份數值中，反映市民對整體政府管治表現評價的政評數值上升0.9點至80.5，而反映市民對整體社會狀況評價的社評數值則上升1.1點至88.1。兩者分別可以視為過去逾二十年來最差的10個和21個百分比。三項數值均再創2019年6月初以來的新高。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為19-22/4/2021，而今次調查日期則為18-22/10/2021，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 9/10/21 | 天文台屢次更改熱帶氣旋警告信號預測 |
| 8/10/21 | 政府公布《香港2030+》策略規劃最終報告 |
| 8/10/21 | 熱帶風暴「獅子山」靠近，天文台發出黑色暴雨警告 |
| 7/10/21 | 施政報告提出發展「北部都會區」 |
| 6/10/21 | 林鄭月娥發表任內最後一份施政報告 |
| 1/10/21 | 政府舉行國慶升旗儀式和酒會 |
| 27/9/21 | 高級督察林婉儀於追截走私快艇期間墮海死亡 |
| 24/9/21 | 中國外交部發表《美國干預香港事務、支持反中亂港勢力事實清單》 |
| 20/9/21 | 364人當選選舉委員會委員 |
| 20/9/21 | 傳中央政府向香港地產商施壓，各地產股大跌 |
| 24/8/21 | 政府提出進一步修訂《電影檢查條例》，禁止不利國家安全電影上映 |
| 18/8/21 | 警方以涉嫌宣揚恐怖主義拘捕4名港大學生會成員 |
| 15/8/21 | 民間人權陣線宣布解散 |
| 10/8/21 | 教協宣布即將解散 |
| 31/7/21 | 教育局全面終止與教協的工作關係 |
| 30/7/21 | 唐英傑就煽動分裂國家罪及恐怖活動罪被判囚9年 |
| 16/7/21 | 夏寶龍提出對治港者的五項要求 |
| 4/7/21 | 警方以涉嫌網上煽惑暴力拘捕兩人 |
| 3/7/21 | 政府稱七一刺警案為「孤狼式恐怖襲擊」 |
| 2/7/21 | 一名男子於銅鑼灣刺警後自殺身亡 |
| 1/7/21 | 習近平於中國共產黨成立100周年大會發表講話 |
| 25/6/21 | 李家超、鄧炳強及蕭澤頤分別出任政務司司長、保安局局長及警務處處長 |
| 23/6/21 | 蘋果日報出版最後一份報紙，印刷量達一百萬份 |
| 17/6/21 | 警方以國安法拘捕蘋果日報高層並凍結公司資產 |
| 14/6/21 | G7峰會閉幕發表聯合公報多次提及中國 |
| 12/6/21 | 駱惠寧指叫喊「結束一黨專政」者是香港大敵 |
| 11/6/21 | 政府修訂《電影檢查條例》，禁止危害國家安全電影上映 |
| 10/6/21 | 人大常委通過《反外國制裁法》 |
| 4/6/21 | 警方封鎖維園，阻止六四悼念集會 |
| 28/5/21 | 十位知名民主派人士就10月1日集會案被判罪成入獄 |
| 27/5/21 | 立法會通過修改選舉制度 |
| 15/5/21 | 台灣新增180宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 14/5/21 | 政府引用國安法凍結黎智英私人財產 |
數據分析
調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為37.0分，有32%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，民望淨值為負42個百分點，評分和民望淨值相比半個月前均沒有顯著變化。特區政府方面，最新滿意率淨值為負29個百分點，再創2019年5月以來新高，信任淨值則為負6個百分點，亦創2019年1月以來新高。至於市民對現時經濟、民生及政治狀況的評價，滿意淨值就分別為負26、負27及負28個百分點，當中民生狀況滿意淨值創2018年12月以來新高。
台灣及西藏問題方面，香港市民對兩岸統一有信心的淨值為負9個百分點，較半年前上升9個百分點，雖然變化未超過抽樣誤差，但就創2012年以來新高。國際空間方面，贊成台灣重新加入聯合國的淨值為正2個百分點，再創2011年以來新低。另外，認為「一國兩制」適用於台灣的淨值為負18個百分點，創2018年以來新高。台灣獨立方面，贊成淨值為負29個百分點，較半年前顯著下跌10個百分點，創2017年以來新低。至於西藏問題方面，贊成西藏獨立的淨值為負37個百分點，與半年前分別不大。
民情指數方面，最新數字為86.5，比十月上旬上升1.1點。
Press Conference Live
Oct 26, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Speakers:
Kim-Wah Chung - Deputy CEO, HKPORI
Wai-Sum Kung - Former Chairman of Hong Kong Policy Viewers, part-time lecturer and social worker of youth work
Edward Tai - Manager (Data Science), HKPORI
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,000 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in late October. Our survey shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 37.0 marks, with 32% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 42 percentage points. The rating and net popularity have not changed significantly compared to half a month ago. Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest net satisfaction stands at negative 29 percentage points, registering another record high since May 2019, while the net trust value stands at negative 6 percentage points, registering a record high since January 2019. As for people’s satisfaction with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 26, negative 27 and negative 28 percentage points respectively. The net satisfaction rate of livelihood condition has registered a record high since December 2018. Regarding Taiwan and Tibetan issues, Hong Kong people’s net confidence in the ultimate reunification across the strait stands at negative 9 percentage points, which has increased by 9 percentage points from half a year ago. Although the change has not gone beyond sampling error, the net confidence has registered a record high since 2012. Regarding international space, net support in Taiwan’s rejoining the United Nations stands at positive 2 percentage points, registering another record low since 2011. Meanwhile, net value in believing “one country, two systems” was applicable to Taiwan stands at negative 18 percentage points, registering a record high since 2018. As for the independence of Taiwan, net support stands at negative 29 percentage points, which has dropped significantly by 10 percentage points from half a year ago, registering a record low since 2017. Regarding Tibetan issues, net support in the independence of Tibet stands at negative 37 percentage points, which has not changed much from half a year ago. As for the PSI, the latest figure is 86.5, up by 1.1 points from early October. The effective response rate of the survey is 52.2% respectively. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-8% and that of ratings is +/-2.1 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 18-22/10/2021 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,000 (including 500 landline and 500 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 52.2% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-8% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.1 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Popularity of CE and SAR Government
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 9-12/8/21 | 20-26/8/21 | 6-10/9/21 | 16-23/9/21 | 4-7/10/21[3] | 18-22/10/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,002 | 1,003 | 1,000 | 1,036 | 1,010 | 1,000 | -- |
| Response rate | 49.4% | 52.9% | 44.2% | 44.1% | 62.9% | 52.2% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 35.1 | 33.8 | 35.6 | 33.9 | 38.3[4] | 37.0+/-2.1 | -1.3 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
20% | 20% | 24%[4] | 20%[4] | 24%[4] | 22+/-3% | -2% |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
66% | 68% | 65% | 66% | 59%[4] | 64+/-3% | +5%[4] |
| Net approval rate | -46% | -48% | -41% | -46% | -35%[4] | -42+/-5% | -7% |
[3] POP conducted a Policy Address instant survey on 6/10/2021 in between two tracking surveys, the results are: CE rating at 30.5 marks, net approval rate at negative 48 percentage points. Because our tracking surveys do not use online samples, and our latest survey started two days before the Policy Address, it is better to compare the latest figures with those collected in our previous survey conducted on 16-23/9/2021.
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 17-21/5/21 | 21-25/6/21 | 19-22/7/21 | 20-26/8/21 | 16-23/9/21 | 18-22/10/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 566-646 | 544-583 | 564-624 | 651-662 | 666-703 | 598-622 | -- |
| Response rate | 52.5% | 49.3% | 48.5% | 52.9% | 44.1% | 52.2% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[5] | 17% | 24%[6] | 24% | 21% | 25% | 26+/-3% | +1% |
| Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[5] | 63% | 60% | 58% | 59% | 54% | 55+/-4% | -- |
| Net satisfaction rate | -46% | -36%[6] | -34% | -38% | -30% | -29+/-7% | +1% |
| Mean value[5] | 2.1 | 2.3[6] | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4+/-0.1 | -- |
| Trust in HKSAR Government[5] | 31% | 34% | 38% | 34% | 35% | 38+/-4% | +3% |
| Distrust in HKSAR Government[5] | 54% | 52% | 50% | 50% | 48% | 44+/-4% | -4% |
| Net trust | -22% | -18% | -12% | -16% | -13% | -6+/-7% | +7% |
| Mean value[5] | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
[5] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
People’s recent appraisals of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 17-21/5/21 | 21-25/6/21 | 19-22/7/21 | 20-26/8/21 | 16-23/9/21 | 18-22/10/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,004 | 1,014 | 1,000 | 1,003 | 1,036 | 1,000 | -- |
| Response rate | 52.5% | 49.3% | 48.5% | 52.9% | 44.1% | 52.2% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate[7] |
17%[8] | 18% | 20% | 23% | 21% | 25+/-3% | +4%[8] |
| Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate[7] |
60% | 56%[8] | 54% | 51% | 53% | 51+/-3% | -2% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -43% | -38% | -33% | -28% | -32% | -26+/-5% | +6% |
| Mean value[7] | 2.3 | 2.4[8] | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
| Current livelihood condition: Satisfaction rate[7] |
18% | 19% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 25+/-3% | +1% |
| Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate[7] |
62% | 56%[8] | 57% | 54% | 52% | 52+/-3% | -1% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -44% | -36%[8] | -36% | -34% | -29% | -27+/-5% | +2% |
| Mean value[7] | 2.2 | 2.4[8] | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4+/-0.1 | -- |
| Current political condition: Satisfaction rate[7] |
20% | 20% | 26%[8] | 24% | 28%[8] | 25+/-3% | -3% |
| Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate[7] |
61% | 61% | 57%[8] | 58% | 54% | 53+/-3% | -1% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -40% | -41% | -30%[8] | -34% | -25%[8] | -28+/-5% | -3% |
| Mean value[7] | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.3[8] | 2.3 | 2.4[8] | 2.4+/-0.1 | -- |
[7] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[8] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 37.0 marks, with 32% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 22%, disapproval rate 64%, giving a net popularity of negative 42 percentage points. The rating and net popularity have not changed significantly compared to half a month ago.
Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest satisfaction rate is 26%, whereas dissatisfaction rate stands at 55%, thus the net satisfaction is negative 29 percentage points, registering another record high since May 2019. The mean score is 2.4, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general. Regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government, 38% of the respondents expressed trust, 44% expressed distrust, thus the net trust value is negative 6 percentage points, registering a record high since January 2019. The mean score is 2.7, meaning between “quite distrust” and “half-half” in general. All these figures have not changed much from a month ago.
As for people’s satisfaction with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions, all the latest satisfaction rates are 25%, while the net satisfaction rates are negative 26, negative 27 and negative 28 percentage points respectively. The mean scores fall within 2.4 and 2.5, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general. All three net satisfaction rates have not changed significantly compared to a month ago, but that of livelihood condition has registered a record high since December 2018.
Taiwan and Tibetan Issues
People’s latest views towards various Taiwan and Tibetan issues are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 2-8/7/19 | 3-8/1/20 | 19-22/10/20 | 19-22/4/21 | 18-22/10/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size[8] | 575-648 | 585-657 | 593-629 | 592-613 | 583-614 | -- |
| Response rate | 67.4% | 72.0% | 62.2% | 54.5% | 52.2% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Confidence in cross-strait reunification | 27% | 19%[10] | 26%[10] | 33%[10] | 37+/-4% | +4% |
| No confidence in cross-strait reunification | 65% | 72%[10] | 61%[10] | 51%[10] | 46+/-4% | -5% |
| Net confidence | -38% | -53%[10] | -36%[10] | -18%[10] | -9+/-8% | +9% |
| Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Support rate | 57% | 63% | 53%[10] | 44%[10] | 40+/-4% | -5% |
| Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Opposition rate | 27% | 26% | 27% | 38%[10] | 37+/-4% | -- |
| Net support | 31% | 36% | 26%[10] | 6%[10] | 2+/-7% | -4% |
| Believe “one country, two systems” is applicable to Taiwan | 27% | 21%[10] | 18% | 27%[10] | 31+/-4% | +5% |
| Believe “one country, two systems” is not applicable to Taiwan | 63% | 66% | 63% | 50%[10] | 49+/-4% | -1% |
| Net value of applicability | -36% | -45% | -45% | -23%[10] | -18+/-7% | +5% |
| Taiwan independence: Support rate | 44%[10] | 48% | 41%[10] | 32%[10] | 26+/-4% | -6%[10] |
| Taiwan independence: Opposition rate | 44%[10] | 39%[10] | 41% | 50%[10] | 55+/-4% | +5% |
| Net support | 0%[10] | 9% | 0% | -18%[10] | -29+/-7% | -10%[10] |
| Tibet independence: Support rate | 26%[10] | 34%[10] | 28% | 19%[10] | 18+/-3% | -1% |
| Tibet independence: Opposition rate | 53% | 46%[10] | 41% | 57%[10] | 55+/-4% | -2% |
| Net support | -27%[10] | -13%[10] | -13% | -38%[10] | -37+/-6% | +1% |
[9] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[10] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
The latest survey reveals that 37% of Hong Kong people interviewed were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait while 46% expressed no confidence. Net confidence stands at negative 9 percentage points, which has increased by 9 percentage points from half a year ago. Although the change has not gone beyond sampling error, the net confidence has registered a record high since 2012. Regarding international space, 40% supported Taiwan’s rejoining the United Nations while 37% opposed that. Net support stands at positive 2 percentage points, registering another record low since 2011. Meanwhile, 31% believed “one country, two systems” was applicable to Taiwan while 49% believed it was not. Net value of applicability stands at negative 18 percentage points, registering a record high since 2018. As for the independence of Taiwan, 26% supported Taiwan’s independence while 55% opposed it. Net support stands at negative 29 percentage points, which has dropped significantly by 10 percentage points from half a year ago, registering a record low since 2017. Regarding Tibetan issues, 55% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Tibet whereas 18% showed support. Net support stands at negative 37 percentage points, which has not changed much from half a year ago.
Public Sentiment Index
The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by POP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to people’s appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to people’s appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal.
The chart of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:
|
|||
| Latest figure | Public Sentiment Index (PSI): 86.5 (+1.1) |
Government Appraisal (GA): 80.5 (+0.9) |
Society Appraisal (SA): 88.1 (+1.1) |
Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:
| Cut-off date | 12/8/21 | 26/8/21 | 10/9/21 | 23/9/21 | 7/10/21 | 22/10/21 | Latest change |
| Public Sentiment Index (PSI) | 81.3 | 80.7 | 81.6 | 83.5 | 85.4 | 86.5 | +1.1 |
| Government Appraisal (GA) | 76.1 | 73.7 | 75.4 | 76.3 | 79.6 | 80.5 | +0.9 |
| Rating of CE | 35.1 | 33.8 | 35.6 | 33.9 | 38.3 | 37.0 | -1.3 |
| Net approval rate of CE | -46% | -48% | -41% | -46% | -35% | -42% | -7% |
| Mean value of people’s satisfaction with SARG | 2.3[11] | 2.3 | 2.3[11] | 2.4 | 2.4[11] | 2.4 | -- |
| Mean value of people’s trust in SARG | 2.7[11] | 2.6 | 2.6[11] | 2.6 | 2.6[11] | 2.7 | +0.1 |
| Society Appraisal (SA) | 83.3[11] | 84.5 | 84.5[11] | 87.0 | 87.0[11] | 88.1 | +1.1 |
| People’s satisfaction with political condition | 2.3[11] | 2.3 | 2.3[11] | 2.4 | 2.4[11] | 2.4 | -- |
| Weighting index of political condition | 0.31[11] | 0.31[11] | 0.31[11] | 0.31[11] | 0.31[11] | 0.31[11] | -- |
| People’s satisfaction with economic condition | 2.4[11] | 2.5 | 2.5[11] | 2.4 | 2.4[11] | 2.5 | +0.1 |
| Weighting index of economic condition | 0.34[11] | 0.34[11] | 0.34[11] | 0.34[11] | 0.34[11] | 0.34[11] | -- |
| People’s satisfaction with livelihood condition | 2.4[11] | 2.4 | 2.4[11] | 2.5 | 2.5[11] | 2.4 | -- |
| Weighting index of livelihood condition | 0.35[11] | 0.35[11] | 0.35[11] | 0.35[11] | 0.35[11] | 0.35[11] | -- |
[11] POP will adopt the latest published figures when there are no respective updates.
As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:
| Score value | Percentile | Score value | Percentile |
| 140-200 | Highest 1% | 0-60 | Lowest 1% |
| 125 | Highest 5% | 75 | Lowest 5% |
| 120 | Highest 10% | 80 | Lowest 10% |
| 110 | Highest 25% | 90 | Lowest 25% |
| 100 being normal level, meaning half above half below | |||
The latest PSI stands at 86.5, up by 1.1 points from early October. It can be considered as among the worst 18% across the past 20 years or so. Among the two component scores of PSI, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance increases by 0.9 point to 80.5, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment increases by 1.1 points to 88.1. They can be considered as among the worst 10% and 21% across the past 20 years or so respectively. All three figures have again registered their record high since early June 2019.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 19 to 22 April, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 18 to 22 October, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 9/10/21 | The Observatory revises its forecast of tropical cyclone warning signals repeatedly. |
| 8/10/21 | The government publishes the “Hong Kong 2030+” strategic planning final report. |
| 8/10/21 | The Observatory issues the Black Rainstorm Warning Signal as tropical storm Lionrock approaches. |
| 7/10/21 | The Policy Address proposes developing the “Northern Metropolis”. |
| 6/10/21 | Carrie Lam delivers the last Policy Address during her term of office. |
| 1/10/21 | The government holds a flag-raising ceremony and a reception in celebration of the National Day. |
| 27/9/21 | Senior police inspector Kary Lam falls into the sea and dies while pursuing smuggling speedboats. |
| 24/9/21 | China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs publishes the “Fact Sheet: U.S. Interference in Hong Kong Affairs and Support for Anti-China, Destabilizing Forces”. |
| 20/9/21 | 364 members of the Election Committee are elected. |
| 20/9/21 | Various property stocks plummet while rumour has it that the Central Government is putting pressure on Hong Kong property developers. |
| 24/8/21 | The government further amends the “Film Censorship Ordinance” to ban exhibition of films that are contrary to the interests of national security. |
| 18/8/21 | Police arrests four members of the HKU Students’ Union who allegedly advocated terrorism. |
| 15/8/21 | Civil Human Rights Front announces its disbandment. |
| 10/8/21 | The Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union announces it will be dissolved. |
| 31/7/21 | The Education Bureau terminates all working relations with Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union. |
| 30/7/21 | Tong Ying-kit is jailed for 9 years for inciting secession and terrorism. |
| 16/7/21 | Xia Baolong spells out five qualities people who govern Hong Kong must possess. |
| 4/7/21 | Police arrests two people who allegedly incited violence online. |
| 3/7/21 | The government calls the July 1 stabbing a “lone wolf terrorist attack”. |
| 2/7/21 | A man kills himself after stabbing a police officer in Causeway Bay. |
| 1/7/21 | Xi Jinping delivers a speech at Chinese Communist Party’s 100th anniversary ceremony. |
| 25/6/21 | John Lee, Chris Tang and Raymond Siu are appointed as Chief Secretary, Secretary for Security and Commissioner of Police respectively. |
| 23/6/21 | Apple Daily prints one million copies of its final issue. |
| 17/6/21 | Police arrests senior executives of Apple Daily and freezes assets of the company under the national security law. |
| 14/6/21 | G7 summit ends and issues communique that mentions China multiple times. |
| 12/6/21 | Luo Huining says people who shout “end one-party rule” are enemies of Hong Kong. |
| 11/6/21 | The government amends the “Film Censorship Ordinance” to ban exhibition of films that endanger national security. |
| 10/6/21 | NPCSC passes “Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law”. |
| 4/6/21 | Police locks down Victoria Park to prevent June 4 vigil. |
| 28/5/21 | 10 famous democrats are convicted and jailed for 10.1 assembly. |
| 27/5/21 | The Legislative Council passes amendments to Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
| 15/5/21 | Taiwan confirms 180 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 14/5/21 | The government freezes Jimmy Lai’s personal assets under the national security law. |
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 37.0 marks, with 32% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 42 percentage points. The rating and net popularity have not changed significantly compared to half a month ago. Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest net satisfaction stands at negative 29 percentage points, registering another record high since May 2019, while the net trust value stands at negative 6 percentage points, registering a record high since January 2019. As for people’s satisfaction with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 26, negative 27 and negative 28 percentage points respectively. The net satisfaction rate of livelihood condition has registered a record high since December 2018.
Regarding Taiwan and Tibetan issues, Hong Kong people’s net confidence in the ultimate reunification across the strait stands at negative 9 percentage points, which has increased by 9 percentage points from half a year ago. Although the change has not gone beyond sampling error, the net confidence has registered a record high since 2012. Regarding international space, net support in Taiwan’s rejoining the United Nations stands at positive 2 percentage points, registering another record low since 2011. Meanwhile, net value in believing “one country, two systems” was applicable to Taiwan stands at negative 18 percentage points, registering a record high since 2018. As for the independence of Taiwan, net support stands at negative 29 percentage points, which has dropped significantly by 10 percentage points from half a year ago, registering a record low since 2017. Regarding Tibetan issues, net support in the independence of Tibet stands at negative 37 percentage points, which has not changed much from half a year ago.
As for the PSI, the latest figure is 86.5, up by 1.1 points from early October.
