2021年12月28日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會直播
講者:
鍾劍華 - 香港民意研究所副行政總裁
李立峯 - 香港中文大學新聞與傳播學院院長
任偉豪 - 復興經濟民生大聯盟成員
戴捷輝 - 香港民意研究所經理 (數據科學)
民研計劃發放2021年回顧及2022年前瞻調查結果
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於十二月中由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,017名香港居民。調查顯示，巿民對香港過去一年整體發展的滿意淨值為負26個百分點，情況相比過去兩年繼續有明顯改善。展望將來，對來年香港整體發展的樂觀淨值為正12個百分點，同樣較去年大幅上升，並創2016年以來新高。個人層面方面，巿民在過去一年的快樂淨值為負10個百分點，情況相比過去兩年同樣有明顯改善。對於來年個人發展的展望，樂觀淨值為正26個百分點，同樣較去年大幅上升，並創2016年以來新高。至於市民新年願望的內容，與社會相關的繼續由2019年的高位回落至40%，與個人相關的佔22%，與世界和平或友愛相關的只佔6%，創1998年以來新低。另外，高達18%市民表示沒有新年願望，創調查系列自1992年開展以來新高。調查的實效回應比率為58.0%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-0.1。
樣本資料
|
調查日期 |
： |
9-14/12/2021 |
|
調查方法 |
： |
由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
|
訪問對象 |
： |
18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
|
成功樣本數目[1] |
： |
1,017 (包括505個固網及512個手機樣本) |
|
實效回應比率 |
： |
58.0% |
|
抽樣誤差[2] |
： |
在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-0.1 |
|
加權方法 |
： |
按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零二零年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
以下是市民對2021年回顧及2022年前瞻的數字，與近年的調查結果並列：
|
調查日期 |
17-20/12/18 |
18-23/12/19 |
18-22/12/20 |
9-14/12/21 |
最新變化 |
|
樣本數目 |
1,000 |
1,067 |
633 |
589-651 |
-- |
|
回應比率 |
60.6% |
61.6% |
68.7% |
58.0% |
-- |
|
最新結果 |
結果 |
結果 |
結果 |
結果及誤差 |
-- |
|
對香港去年發展的評價：滿意率[3] |
36% |
9%[4] |
9% |
26+/-4% |
+17%[4] |
|
對香港去年發展的評價：不滿率[3] |
37% |
84%[4] |
72%[4] |
52+/-4% |
-20%[4] |
|
滿意率淨值 |
-1% |
-75%[4] |
-62%[4] |
-26+/-7% |
+37%[4] |
|
平均量值[3] |
2.9 |
1.6[4] |
1.9[4] |
2.5+/-0.1 |
+0.6[4] |
|
預期來年香港整體發展會改善之比率 |
23%[4] |
23% |
34%[4] |
40+/-4% |
+7%[4] |
|
預期來年香港整體發展會惡化之比率 |
50%[4] |
59%[4] |
39%[4] |
29+/-4% |
-11%[4] |
|
樂觀淨值 |
-27%[4] |
-36%[4] |
-6%[4] |
12+/-7% |
+17%[4] |
|
於過去一年感到生活快樂之比率[3] |
55% |
20%[4] |
13%[4] |
29+/-4% |
+16%[4] |
|
於過去一年感到生活不快樂之比率[3] |
15%[4] |
58%[4] |
59% |
40+/-4% |
-19%[4] |
|
快樂比率淨值 |
40% |
-38%[4] |
-45% |
-10+/-7% |
+35%[4] |
|
平均量值[3] |
3.5[4] |
2.3[4] |
2.2 |
2.8+/-0.1 |
+0.5[4] |
|
預計來年個人發展較去年佳之比率 |
39% |
31%[4] |
31% |
42+/-4% |
+11%[4] |
|
預計來年個人發展較去年差之比率 |
17% |
38%[4] |
25%[4] |
15+/-3% |
-9%[4] |
|
樂觀淨值 |
22% |
-7%[4] |
6%[4] |
26+/-6% |
+20%[4] |
|
新年願望：與社會相關之比率 |
39% |
65%[4] |
49%[4] |
40+/-4% |
-9%[4] |
|
新年願望：與個人相關之比率 (例如：健康、心境、事業、學業、財富、家庭、愛情、婚姻、朋友和其他) |
34% |
9%[4] |
22%[4] |
22+/-3% |
-- |
|
新年願望：與世界和平或友愛相關之比率 |
8%[4] |
12%[4] |
7%[4] |
6+/-2% |
-1% |
|
沒有新年願望之比率 |
9% |
8% |
10% |
18+/-3% |
+8%[4] |
[3] 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[4] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
週年年終調查顯示，巿民對香港過去一年整體發展的滿意比率為26%，不滿比率為52%，淨值為負26個百分點，平均量值為2.5，即整體上介乎「幾不滿」及「一半半」之間，情況相比過去兩年繼續有明顯改善。展望將來，40%預期來年香港的整體發展會比今年好，認為會惡化的則佔29%，樂觀淨值為正12個百分點，同樣較去年大幅上升，並創2016年以來新高。
個人層面方面，29%巿民表示在過去一年活得快樂，40%表示不快樂，快樂淨值為負10個百分點，平均量值為2.8，即整體上接近「一半半」，情況相比過去兩年同樣有明顯改善。對於來年的展望，42%預計其個人發展將會較去年為佳，15%則認為會較差，樂觀淨值為正26個百分點，同樣較去年大幅上升，並創2016年以來新高。
至於市民新年願望的內容，與社會相關的繼續由2019年的高位回落至40%，與個人相關的佔22%，與世界和平或友愛相關的只佔6%，創1998年以來新低。另外，高達18%市民表示沒有新年願望，創調查系列自1992年開展以來新高。
數據分析
調查顯示，巿民對香港過去一年整體發展的滿意淨值為負26個百分點，情況相比過去兩年繼續有明顯改善。展望將來，對來年香港整體發展的樂觀淨值為正12個百分點，同樣較去年大幅上升，並創2016年以來新高。個人層面方面，巿民在過去一年的快樂淨值為負10個百分點，情況相比過去兩年同樣有明顯改善。對於來年個人發展的展望，樂觀淨值為正26個百分點，同樣較去年大幅上升，並創2016年以來新高。至於市民新年願望的內容，與社會相關的繼續由2019年的高位回落至40%，與個人相關的佔22%，與世界和平或友愛相關的只佔6%，創1998年以來新低。另外，高達18%市民表示沒有新年願望，創調查系列自1992年開展以來新高。
December 28, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Speakers:
Kim-Wah Chung - Deputy CEO, HKPORI
Francis Lee - Director, School of Journalism and Communication, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Wai-Ho Yam - Member, Alliance of Revitalizing Economy and Livelihood
Edward Tai - Manager (Data Science), HKPORI
POP releases results of the 2021 review and 2022 forecast survey
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,017 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in mid-December. Our survey shows that net satisfaction with Hong Kong’s development in the year past stands at negative 26 percentage points. The situation continued to improve significantly compared to last two years. Looking ahead, net optimism toward Hong Kong’s development next year in general stands at positive 12 percentage points, which has also increased significantly from last year and registered a record high since 2016. At an individual level, net happiness value in the year past stands at negative 10 percentage points. The situation has also improved significantly compared to last two years. As for personal development in the coming year, net optimism stands at positive 26 percentage points, which has also increased significantly from last year and registered a new record high since 2016. As for people’s New Year wishes, society-related ones continued to drop from its record high in 2019 to 40%, while 22% were wishes related to personal matters. Only 6% were world peace-related, registering a record low since 1998. Meanwhile, as many as 18% said they did not have New Year wishes, registering a new high since the survey series began in 1992. The effective response rate of the survey is 58.0%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-0.1 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
|
Date of survey |
: |
9-14/12/2021 |
|
Survey method |
: |
Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
|
Target population |
: |
Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
|
Sample size[1] |
: |
1,017 (including 505 landline and 512 mobile samples) |
|
Effective response rate |
: |
58.0% |
|
Sampling error[2] |
: |
Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-0.1 at 95% conf. level |
|
Weighting method |
: |
Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Herewith the figures of 2021 review and 2022 forecast, compared with similar figures obtained in recent years:
|
Date of survey |
17-20/12/18 |
18-23/12/19 |
18-22/12/20 |
9-14/12/21 |
Latest change |
|
Sample size |
1,000 |
1,067 |
633 |
589-651 |
-- |
|
Response rate |
60.6% |
61.6% |
68.7% |
58.0% |
-- |
|
Latest findings |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error |
-- |
|
Satisfied with HK’s development in the year past [3] |
36% |
9%[4] |
9% |
26+/-4% |
+17%[4] |
|
Dissatisfied with HK’s development in the year past [3] |
37% |
84%[4] |
72%[4] |
52+/-4% |
-20%[4] |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-1% |
-75%[4] |
-62%[4] |
-26+/-7% |
+37%[4] |
|
Mean value[3] |
2.9 |
1.6[4] |
1.9[4] |
2.5+/-0.1 |
+0.6[4] |
|
Expected HK’s development to be better next year |
23%[4] |
23% |
34%[4] |
40+/-4% |
+7%[4] |
|
Expected HK’s development to be worse next year |
50%[4] |
59%[4] |
39%[4] |
29+/-4% |
-11%[4] |
|
Net optimism |
-27%[4] |
-36%[4] |
-6%[4] |
12+/-7% |
+17%[4] |
|
Respondents who were happy in the year past [3] |
55% |
20%[4] |
13%[4] |
29+/-4% |
+16%[4] |
|
Respondents who were unhappy in the year past [3] |
15%[4] |
58%[4] |
59% |
40+/-4% |
-19%[4] |
|
Net happiness value |
40% |
-38%[4] |
-45% |
-10+/-7% |
+35%[4] |
|
Mean value[3] |
3.5[4] |
2.3[4] |
2.2 |
2.8+/-0.1 |
+0.5[4] |
|
Expected personal development to become better next year |
39% |
31%[4] |
31% |
42+/-4% |
+11%[4] |
|
Expected personal development to become worse next year |
17% |
38%[4] |
25%[4] |
15+/-3% |
-9%[4] |
|
Net optimism |
22% |
-7%[4] |
6%[4] |
26+/-6% |
+20%[4] |
|
New Year wishes: Society-related (e.g. economic related, people’s livelihood, political related and others) |
39% |
65%[4] |
49%[4] |
40+/-4% |
-9%[4] |
|
New Year wishes: Personal matters (e.g. health, career, studies, wealth, family, love, marriage, friendship and other personal issues) |
34% |
9%[4] |
22%[4] |
22+/-3% |
-- |
|
New Year wishes: World peace-related |
8%[4] |
12%[4] |
7%[4] |
6+/-2% |
-1% |
|
No special wish |
9% |
8% |
10% |
18+/-3% |
+8%[4] |
[3] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our annual year-end survey shows that 26% were satisfied with Hong Kong’s development in the year past, 52% were dissatisfied, giving a net satisfaction of negative 26 percentage points. The mean score is 2.5, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general. The situation continued to improve significantly compared to last two years. Looking ahead, 40% expected Hong Kong’s overall development next year would be better than last year, 29% said it would be worse, giving a net optimism of positive 12 percentage points, which has also increased significantly from last year and registered a record high since 2016.
At an individual level, 29% said they lived a happy life in the year past, 40% said they were not happy, giving a net happiness value of negative 10 percentage points. The mean score is 2.8, meaning close to “half-half” in general. The situation has also improved significantly compared to last two years. As for the coming year, 42% believed their personal development would become better, 15% thought they would be getting worse, giving a net optimism of positive 26 percentage points, which has also increased significantly from last year and registered a new record high since 2016.
As for people’s New Year wishes, society-related ones continued to drop from its record high in 2019 to 40%, while 22% were wishes related to personal matters. Only 6% were world peace-related, registering a record low since 1998. Meanwhile, as many as 18% said they did not have New Year wishes, registering a new high since the survey series began in 1992.
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that net satisfaction with Hong Kong’s development in the year past stands at negative 26 percentage points. The situation continued to improve significantly compared to last two years. Looking ahead, net optimism toward Hong Kong’s development next year in general stands at positive 12 percentage points, which has also increased significantly from last year and registered a record high since 2016. At an individual level, net happiness value in the year past stands at negative 10 percentage points. The situation has also improved significantly compared to last two years. As for personal development in the coming year, net optimism stands at positive 26 percentage points, which has also increased significantly from last year and registered a new record high since 2016. As for people’s New Year wishes, society-related ones continued to drop from its record high in 2019 to 40%, while 22% were wishes related to personal matters. Only 6% were world peace-related, registering a record low since 1998. Meanwhile, as many as 18% said they did not have New Year wishes, registering a new high since the survey series began in 1992.
