2022年3月22日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會直播
講者:
鍾劍華 - 香港民意研究所副行政總裁
余德寶 - 前油尖旺區議會副主席
網上評論嘉賓:
潘麒智 - 獨立評論人
特別宣佈
香港民意研究所（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「香港民研」指的可以是香港民意研究所或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
香港民研於三月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,000名香港居民。調查顯示，以0至10分評價，市民對五項核心社會指標的評分由高至低分別是「自由」、「法治」、「繁榮」、「民主」和「安定」，得分分別為4.92、4.36、3.98、3.98和3.91分。相比一個月前，「法治」、「繁榮」和「安定」指標均錄得顯著跌幅，當中「繁榮」創1997年6月調查開展以來新低，「安定」則創2020年9月以來新低。調查的實效回應比率為51.5%。在95%置信水平下，調查的評分誤差不超過+/-0.25。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 7-11/3/2022 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,000 (包括504個固網及496個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 51.5% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，調查的評分誤差不超過+/-0.25 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零二零年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2020年版）。 |
- 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
- 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
以下是五項核心社會指標的最新數字：
| 調查日期 | 29/10-3/11/21 | 29/11-3/12/21 | 3-6/1/22 | 7-10/2/22 | 7-11/3/22 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 599-610 | 598-602 | 606-618 | 548-677 | 597-604 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 50.1% | 44.9% | 52.7% | 58.1% | 51.5% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 自由指標 | 5.18 | 4.82[3] | 4.57 | 5.09[3] | 4.92+/-0.25 | -0.17 |
| 法治指標 | 4.87 | 4.59 | 4.34 | 5.13[3] | 4.36+/-0.24 | -0.77[3] |
| 繁榮指標 | 5.35 | 4.77[3] | 4.89 | 4.97 | 3.98+/-0.21 | -0.99[3] |
| 民主指標 | 4.16 | 3.94 | 3.93 | 4.25 | 3.98+/-0.25 | -0.27 |
| 安定指標 | 5.42 | 5.03[3] | 4.89 | 4.94 | 3.91+/-0.22 | -1.03[3] |
- 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以0至10分評價，市民對五項核心社會指標的評分由高至低分別是「自由」、「法治」、「繁榮」、「民主」和「安定」，得分分別為4.92、4.36、3.98、3.98和3.91分。相比一個月前，「法治」、「繁榮」和「安定」指標均錄得顯著跌幅，當中「繁榮」創1997年6月調查開展以來新低，「安定」則創2020年9月以來新低。
民意日誌
香港民研於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照香港民研設計的分析方法，將每日大事紀錄傳送至香港民研，經香港民研核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的調查項目，上次調查日期為7-10/2/2022，而今次調查日期則為7-11/3/2022，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 11/3/22 | 香港新冠疫情持續，死亡個案急增 |
| 7/3/22 | 政府推出快速檢測陽性呈報平台 |
| 4/3/22 | 逾七成院舍爆發新冠疫情 |
| 2/3/22 | 林鄭月娥指全民強檢期間不會封城 |
| 23/2/22 | 政府發表新年度財政預算案，推出超過1700億逆周期措施 |
| 22/2/22 | 政府宣佈將於三月推行全民強檢 |
| 21/2/22 | 政府宣佈2月24日開始實施「疫苗通行證」 |
| 18/2/22 | 林鄭月娥宣佈引用《緊急情況規例條款》押後特首選舉至5月8日 |
| 12/2/22 | 新冠肺炎疫情惡化，單日新增1514宗個案創新高 |
| 11/2/22 | 新冠肺炎疫情惡化，政務司司長李家超率團赴深圳商討抗疫 |
| 8/2/22 | 政府收緊防疫措施，限制跨家庭聚會及推行疫苗護照 |
數據分析
調查顯示，以0至10分評價，市民對五項核心社會指標的評分由高至低分別是「自由」、「法治」、「繁榮」、「民主」和「安定」，得分分別為4.92、4.36、3.98、3.98和3.91分。相比一個月前，「法治」、「繁榮」和「安定」指標均錄得顯著跌幅，當中「繁榮」創1997年6月調查開展以來新低，「安定」則創2020年9月以來新低。
Mar 22, 2022
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Speakers:
Kim-Wah Chung - Deputy CEO, HKPORI
Andy Yu - Former Vice-Chair, Yau Tsim Mong District Council
Online Commentator:
KC Poon - Independent Commentator
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institution (PORI) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “PORI” in this release can refer to Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
PORI successfully interviewed 1,000 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early March. Our survey shows that, on a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “rule of law”, “prosperity”, “democracy” and “stability”. Their scores are 4.92, 4.36, 3.98, 3.98 and 3.91 respectively. The ratings of “rule of law”, “prosperity” and “stability” have registered significant decreases compared with a month ago. Among them, the rating of “prosperity” has registered a record low since the survey series started in June 1997, while the rating of “stability” has registered a record low since September 2020. The effective response rate of the survey is 51.5%. The maximum sampling error of ratings is +/-0.25 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 7-11/3/2022 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,000 (including 504 landline and 496 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 51.5% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of ratings not more than +/-0.25 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”. |
- This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
- All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Herewith the latest figures of the five core social indicators:
| Date of survey | 29/10-3/11/21 | 29/11-3/12/21 | 3-6/1/22 | 7-10/2/22 | 7-11/3/22 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 599-610 | 598-602 | 606-618 | 548-677 | 597-604 | -- |
| Response rate | 50.1% | 44.9% | 52.7% | 58.1% | 51.5% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Degree of freedom | 5.18 | 4.82[3] | 4.57 | 5.09[3] | 4.92+/-0.25 | -0.17 |
| Compliance with the rule of law | 4.87 | 4.59 | 4.34 | 5.13[3] | 4.36+/-0.24 | -0.77[3] |
| Degree of prosperity | 5.35 | 4.77[3] | 4.89 | 4.97 | 3.98+/-0.21 | -0.99[3] |
| Degree of democracy | 4.16 | 3.94 | 3.93 | 4.25 | 3.98+/-0.25 | -0.27 |
| Degree of stability | 5.42 | 5.03[3] | 4.89 | 4.94 | 3.91+/-0.22 | -1.03[3] |
- The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “rule of law”, “prosperity”, “democracy” and “stability”. Their scores are 4.92, 4.36, 3.98, 3.98 and 3.91 respectively. The ratings of “rule of law”, “prosperity” and “stability” have registered significant decreases compared with a month ago. Among them, the rating of “prosperity” has registered a record low since the survey series started in June 1997, while the rating of “stability” has registered a record low since September 2020.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, PORI started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to PORI a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by PORI. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by PORI.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 7 to 10 February, 2022 while this survey was conducted from 7 to 11 March, 2022. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 11/3/22 | Hong Kong’s epidemic situation persists and death toll rises sharply. |
| 7/3/22 | The government launches the “Declaration System for Individuals Tested Positive for COVID-19 Using Rapid Antigen Test”. |
| 4/3/22 | COVID-19 infections were reported in more than 70% of residential care homes. |
| 2/3/22 | Carrie Lam says citywide lockdown will not be imposed during compulsory universal testing. |
| 23/2/22 | The government delivers the new Budget, and will spend more than HK$170 billion on counter-cyclical measures. |
| 22/2/22 | The government announces the implementation of compulsory mass testing in March. |
| 21/2/22 | The government announces the implementation of the Vaccine Pass arrangement starting from February 24. |
| 18/2/22 | Carrie Lam announces the postponement of the Chief Executive Election to May 8 by invoking the Emergency Regulations Ordinance. |
| 12/2/22 | As COVID-19 outbreak continues to grow, Hong Kong reports 1,514 cases, registering a record high. |
| 11/2/22 | As COVID-19 outbreak continues to grow, a delegation led by Chief Secretary for Administration John Lee attends the second Mainland-Hong Kong thematic meeting on COVID-19 pandemic in Shenzhen. |
| 8/2/22 | The government tightens the anti-epidemic measures, limiting multi-household gatherings and launching vaccine pass. |
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that, on a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “rule of law”, “prosperity”, “democracy” and “stability”. Their scores are 4.92, 4.36, 3.98, 3.98 and 3.91 respectively. The ratings of “rule of law”, “prosperity” and “stability” have registered significant decreases compared with a month ago. Among them, the rating of “prosperity” has registered a record low since the survey series started in June 1997, while the rating of “stability” has registered a record low since September 2020.
