2022年5月31日 – 傳媒參考資料
特別宣佈
香港民意研究所（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「香港民研」指的可以是香港民意研究所或其前身港大民研。
適值民研進行半年工作檢討，今年五四 (2022年5月4日，即民研三週年) 之後，民研決定調整新聞發布會的次數，下調至每月四次左右，以爭取資源進行網上公民教育工作。此外，民研亦希望教育大眾，數字歸數字，評論歸評論。所有由民調數字引發的個人評論，責任由論者自負，與民研無關。
公報簡要
香港民研於四至五月由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式，分兩階段先後成功訪問了1,000及1,003名香港居民。調查顯示市民對消防處、海關和警務處的滿意度評分分別為78.3、64.4及52.3分，當中警務處的評分相比六個月前上升2.2分，再創2019年6月初以來新高，惟升幅並未超出抽樣誤差。另外，市民對駐港解放軍的最新滿意度評分為58.9分，其滿意淨值為正25個百分點，相比六個月前下跌5個百分點，跌幅在抽樣誤差之內。調查的實效回應比率分別為41.5%和40.9%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-5%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.8。
樣本資料
| 紀律部隊提名 | 紀律部隊評價 | ||
| 調查日期 | ： | 30/4-6/5/2022 | 12-20/5/2022 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,000 (包括500個固網及500個手機樣本) |
1,003 (包括503個固網及500個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 41.5% | 40.9% |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 | |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 | |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-5%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.8 | |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零二一年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2021年版）。 | |
- 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
- 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
在提名調查中，被訪者可在未經提示下說出最多三個紀律部隊，結果首三位最多被訪者提及的紀律部隊分別是警務處、消防處和海關，它們於是被納入評分調查。在評分調查中，被訪者就個別紀律部隊以0至100分進行評分，0分代表極不滿意，100分代表極滿意，50分為一半半。以下是相關紀律部隊及駐港解放軍的最新評分：
| 調查日期 | 4-6/5/20 | 23-26/11/20 | 17-21/5/21 | 15-18/11/21 | 12-20/5/22 | 最新變化 | |
| 樣本數目 | 536-672 | 506-535 | 570-632 | 611-673 | 589-670 | -- | |
| 回應比率 | 62.5% | 74.6% | 52.5% | 53.7% | 40.9% | -- | |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | 認知率 | -- |
| 消防處 | 76.6[3] | 81.0[3] | 79.5 | 79.7 | 78.3+/-1.6 | 98.0% | -1.5 |
| 海關 | 64.4[3] | 64.5 | 59.7[3] | 62.7 | 64.4+/-1.9 | 92.4% | +1.7 |
| 警務處 | 36.8 | 40.3 | 44.2 | 50.1[3] | 52.3+/-2.8 | 97.6% | +2.2 |
| 醫療輔助隊 | 77.4[3] | 78.2 | 74.2[3] | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 政府飛行服務隊 | 71.7 | 65.7[3] | 67.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 民眾安全服務隊 | 62.9 | 62.9 | 66.3[3] | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 入境事務處 | 60.8[3] | 63.6 | 58.3[3] | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 廉政公署 | 54.8 | 56.1 | 54.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 懲教署 | 51.6[3] | 52.1 | 52.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 駐港解放軍 | 44.2 | 49.1 | 51.4 | 60.3[3] | 58.9+/-2.8 | 84.5% | -1.4 |
- 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下則是巿民使用五等量尺表達對駐港解放軍的滿意程度：
| 調查日期 | 4-6/5/20 | 23-26/11/20 | 17-21/5/21 | 15-18/11/21 | 12-20/5/22 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 626 | 524 | 609 | 673 | 670 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 62.5% | 74.6% | 52.5% | 53.7% | 40.9% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 對駐港解放軍的滿意率[4] | 39% | 36% | 37% | 43%[5] | 40+/-4% | -3% |
| 對駐港解放軍的不滿率[4] | 36% | 26%[5] | 24% | 13%[5] | 15+/-3% | +2% |
| 滿意率淨值 | 2% | 10% | 12% | 30%[5] | 25+/-5% | -5% |
| 平均量值[4] | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.7[5] | 3.5+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
- 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
- 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
調查顯示，市民對消防處、海關和警務處的滿意度評分分別為78.3、64.4及52.3分，當中警務處的評分相比六個月前上升2.2分，再創2019年6月初以來新高，惟升幅並未超出抽樣誤差。另外，市民對駐港解放軍的最新滿意度評分為58.9分。其滿意率為40%，不滿率為15%，滿意淨值為正25個百分點，相比六個月前下跌5個百分點，跌幅在抽樣誤差之內。平均量值則為3.5分，即整體上介乎「幾滿意」及「一半半」之間。
民意日誌
香港民研於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照香港民研設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至香港民研，經香港民研核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的調查項目，上次調查日期為15-18/11/2021，而今次調查日期則為12-20/5/2022，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 17/5/2022 | 行政會議通過政府架構重組方案 |
| 9/5/2022 | 李家超與林鄭月娥會面討論交接及政府架構事宜 |
| 8/5/2022 | 李家超高票當選第六任香港行政長官 |
| 30/4/2022 | 李家超出席行政長官選舉答問會 |
| 29/4/2022 | 李家超公佈競選政綱 |
| 13/4/2022 | 李家超獲得786個選舉委員提名 |
| 9/4/2022 | 李家超正式宣佈參選特首 |
| 6/4/2022 | 李家超請辭參選特首 |
| 3/4/2022 | 李家超料於4月6日宣佈辭職參選下任特首 |
| 7/1/2022 | 170名洪為民生日派對賓客送住隔離檢疫 |
| 6/1/2022 | 政府多名高官出席洪為民生日派對 |
| 29/12/2021 | 7名立場新聞高層被捕，立場新聞隨即停運 |
| 4/12/2021 | 特區政府與中聯辦合辦「國家憲法日」網上座談會 |
下次新聞公報／發佈會
- [發佈會] 6月7日（星期二）下午二時三十分
六四事件週年調查
客席評論：劉銳紹、梁寶霖 - [新聞公報] 6月10日（星期五）下午二時三十分
限聚指數結果 - [新聞公報] 6月14日（星期二）下午二時三十分
特首及局長民望數字、五項核心社會指標 - [發佈會] 6月17日（星期五）下午二時三十分
青年事務調查
客席評論：黃偉國
May 31, 2022 – Press Materials
Special Announcements
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (PORI) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “PORI” in this release can refer to Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Incidental to PORI’s ongoing half-yearly review, after May Fourth this year (May 4, 2022, i.e., PORI’s 3rd Anniversary), PORI has decided to reduce the frequency of our press conferences to about four times a month, in order to spare more resources for our online civic education work. Besides, PORI would also like to stress the separation of comments from figures, so that the responsibility of all personal comments arising from our scientific research lies entirely on the commentators concerned, not PORI.
Abstract
PORI successfully interviewed 1,000 and 1,003 Hong Kong residents respectively in two random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers in April and May. Our survey shows that people’s satisfaction ratings with the Fire Services Department, the Customs and Excise Department and the Police Force stand at 78.3, 64.4 and 52.3 marks respectively. That of the Police Force has increased by 2.2 marks compared to six months ago, registering a new high since early June 2019 again, although the change has not gone beyond sampling error. Meanwhile, people’s latest satisfaction rating with the PLA Hong Kong Garrison stands at 58.9 marks. Its net satisfaction rate is positive 25 percentage points, which has decreased by 5 percentage points compared to six months ago, yet the change is within the sampling error. The effective response rates of the surveys are 41.5% and 40.9% respectively. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-5% and that of ratings is +/-2.8 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Disciplinary Forces Naming | Appraisal of Disciplinary Forces | ||
| Date of survey | : | 30/4-6/5/2022 | 12-20/5/2022 |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,000 (including 500 landline and 500 mobile samples) | 1,003 (including 503 landline and 500 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 41.5% | 40.9% |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers | |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above | |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-5% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.8 at 95% conf. level | |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2021”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2021 Edition)”. | |
- This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
- All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to three disciplinary forces whom they knew best. The Police Force, the Fire Services Department and the Customs and Excise Department were the top three mentions, they therefore entered the rating survey. In the rating survey, respondents were asked to rate individual disciplinary forces using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates extremely dissatisfied, 100 indicates extremely satisfied and 50 means half-half. Recent ratings of the relevant disciplinary forces and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 4-6/5/20 | 23-26/11/20 | 17-21/5/21 | 15-18/11/21 | 12-20/5/22 | Latest change | |
| Sample size | 536-672 | 506-535 | 570-632 | 611-673 | 589-670 | -- | |
| Response rate | 62.5% | 74.6% | 52.5% | 53.7% | 40.9% | -- | |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | Recog % | -- |
| Fire Services Department | 76.6[3] | 81.0[3] | 79.5 | 79.7 | 78.3+/-1.6 | 98.0% | -1.5 |
| Customs and Excise Department | 64.4[3] | 64.5 | 59.7[3] | 62.7 | 64.4+/-1.9 | 92.4% | +1.7 |
| Police Force | 36.8 | 40.3 | 44.2 | 50.1[3] | 52.3+/-2.8 | 97.6% | +2.2 |
| Auxiliary Medical Service | 77.4[3] | 78.2 | 74.2[3] | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Government Flying Service | 71.7 | 65.7[3] | 67.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Civil Aid Service | 62.9 | 62.9 | 66.3[3] | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Immigration Department | 60.8[3] | 63.6 | 58.3[3] | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Independent Commission Against Corruption | 54.8 | 56.1 | 54.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Correctional Services Department | 51.6[3] | 52.1 | 52.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| PLA Hong Kong Garrison | 44.2 | 49.1 | 51.4 | 60.3[3] | 58.9+/-2.8 | 84.5% | -1.4 |
- The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Latest satisfaction rates of the PLA Hong Kong Garrison using the 5-point scale are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 4-6/5/20 | 23-26/11/20 | 17-21/5/21 | 15-18/11/21 | 12-20/5/22 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 626 | 524 | 609 | 673 | 670 | -- |
| Response rate | 62.5% | 74.6% | 52.5% | 53.7% | 40.9% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Satisfaction rate of the PLA Hong Kong Garrison[4] |
39% | 36% | 37% | 43%[5] | 40+/-4% | -3% |
| Dissatisfaction rate of the PLA Hong Kong Garrison[4] |
36% | 26%[5] | 24% | 13%[5] | 15+/-3% | +2% |
| Net satisfaction rate | 2% | 10% | 12% | 30%[5] | 25+/-5% | -5% |
| Mean value[4] | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.7[5] | 3.5+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
- Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. From October to December 2018, PORI conducted tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results. Please visit our website for details.
- The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Survey shows that people’s satisfaction ratings with the Fire Services Department, the Customs and Excise Department and the Police Force stand at 78.3, 64.4 and 52.3 marks respectively. That of the Police Force has increased by 2.2 marks compared to six months ago, registering a new high since early June 2019 again, although the change has not gone beyond sampling error. Meanwhile, people’s latest satisfaction rating with the PLA Hong Kong Garrison stands at 58.9 marks. Its satisfaction rate is 40%, dissatisfaction rate 15%, giving a net satisfaction rate of positive 25 percentage points, which has decreased by 5 percentage points compared to six months ago, yet the change is within the sampling error. The mean score is 3.5, meaning between “quite satisfied” and “half-half” in general.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, PORI started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to PORI a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by PORI. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by PORI.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 15 to 18 November, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 12 to 20 May, 2022. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 17/5/2022 | Executive Council endorses the proposals of re-organising government structure. |
| 9/5/2022 | John Lee meets Carrie Lam to discuss transitional arrangements and the preparatory works of re-organising government structure. |
| 8/5/2022 | John Lee is elected as the sixth Chief Executive of Hong Kong with overwhelming votes. |
| 30/4/2022 | John Lee attends Election Question and Answer Session. |
| 29/4/2022 | John Lee announces his election platform. |
| 13/4/2022 | John Lee secures 786 nominations from the Election Committee. |
| 9/4/2022 | John Lee declares his bid for Chief Executive election. |
| 6/4/2022 | John Lee resigns to join the Chief Executive election. |
| 3/4/2022 | John Lee is expected to announce resignation on April 6 to join the Chief Executive election. |
| 7/1/2022 | All 170 guests who attended the birthday party of Witman Hung are sent to quarantine. |
| 6/1/2022 | Government senior officials attend Witman Hung’s birthday party. |
| 29/12/2021 | Stand News closes after seven senior staff members are arrested. |
| 4/12/2021 | The SAR government and the Liaison Office co-organised the “Constitution Day” online seminar. |
Upcoming Press Release / Press Conference
- [Press Conference] June 7 (Tuesday) at 14:30
June Fourth Incident anniversary survey
Guest commentators: Johnny Lau, Leung Po Lam - [Press Release] June 10 (Friday) at 14:30
Group Gathering Prohibition Index - [Press Release] June 14 (Tuesday) at 14:30
Popularities of CE and Directors of Bureaux, Five Core Social Indicators - [Press Conference] June 17 (Friday) at 14:30
Youth matters survey
Guest commentator: Benson Wong
